A Deep Dive into the Miami Heat's Bench, Rookies & What Can We Expect for the 2025 Season
A Deep Dive into the Miami Heat's Bench, Rookies & What Can We Expect for the 2025 Season
A deep dive into each role player & rookie looking at what they can bring for this season
In the upcoming days, we’ll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. We’ll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like.
Let’s have a look at a whole bunch of players in this one. I separated the starters or key rotational players where I take a deep dive into each of them. Here, I’ll be looking at everyone else — the bench and the rookies. The Heat should have four new players coming in that could get some rotational minutes here and there, depending on health, their development, and the time of the season. But it’s also looking at a few returning players.
In store today is Keshad Johnson, Josh Christopher, Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Alec Burks, Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, Kevin Love, and Haywood Highsmith.
Let’s start with the rookies and the two-ways.
Before you start, if you want a more in-depth analysis of the rookies and two-ways, you should check out the summer league breakdown!
Johnson, one of the two-way players for the Heat should bring some much needed athleticism, size, and honestly, big energy. That’s what stood out the most in the summer league. You could just feel Johnson on the court with how he moved, rotated, helped, or cut. It gives Russell Westbrook type of vibes where everything he’s doing is at full speed and at 100% effort.
In the six summer league games, he finished with 11.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and, 2.5 stocks. He also shot 17/31 from 2pt, 7/18 from 3pt, and 15/21 at the line.
When it comes to his minutes, I can definitely see him play in the similar role as a younger Highsmith or Martin. I don’t expect him to be played often or played high minutes, but whenever you need that spark or if you’re resting players, that’s when you’d see him.
As for what we could expect from him. In his last three seasons in college, he shot 61.2% from 2pt. With that size and athleticism, he 100% should help with the rim finishing. Whether it’s going to be in transition, off cuts or putbacks, that’s where he could leave his imprint.
I can see a Butler + shooting and Johnson lineups where it’s Butler going to work with shooters around him and having Johnson around the rim looking to feast.
The biggest question with how much he plays is the shooting. Here’s his shooting in each season at college:
4/18(22%) → 7/21(33%) → 6/33(18%) → 11/42(26%) → 36/93(39%)
That’s just one season at a good clip but at a low volume. It would be more encouraging if he was a better free throw shooter too, but for his career he’s a 64% shooter with him reaching 71% last year. If he’s not going to be an effective shooter, he’s going to be in the same spot as Highsmith was in his earlier seasons. It’s going to be tough to get reliable minutes as a non spacing wing.
But in spot minutes, I can see the value of him on defense. He’s a bigger body than a lot of what the Heat have. For certain matchups, he can eat some minutes defending bigger guys to ease some load off of others.
I like that Larsson and Christopher get more minutes and have a bigger role on both ends. Whether it’s one of them or split it between them, I can see either of them being fitted in the Caleb Martin role. Some secondary ball handling, shot creation, and defense against guards. That’s where I can see both making their impact.
This was the kind of defense that Larsson was playing(yes, I know it was summer league but the effort and the technique were there):
I don’t think it’s wild to say that he’d be one of the better guard defenders already on this team — probably second best behind Highsmith. It’s that kind of defense that should get him playing time immediately. This is similar to Christopher too. He has that size and athleticism to be a solid defender and has also shown that willingness in the summer league.
Both players also have shown to be good off-ball and play within a role on offense(Larsson felt more suited for that). Larsson was a very capable off ball mover, beat closeouts effectively, showed a lot of passing potential, and if he can start taking and making more 3s, then there won’t be a reason to not have him as the guy deeper off the bench.
With the departure from Martin, there is a hole that needs to be filled and these two guys are the most likely ones to fill it.
Then there’s Ware, who probably should get the most minutes considering he was the highest pick and that he’s a kind of big that a lot of fans wanted to have on a team in the first place. He adds that athleticism, size, length that shows up on both ends of the floor.
One of his main ways of scoring in the summer league was finishing with ease rolling to the rim, getting lobs, cutting well and putbacks. He was doing all of the typical big stuff on offense and he has all of the tools to do it well. I can’t remember the last time the Heat had that kind of player with those tools.
There will be some defensive question marks, particularly early in the year that may stop him from getting more playing time, in a similar way we saw with Nikola Jovic, where he didn’t play until those mistakes were fully cleaned up. He’s going to be in a big role on defense and that’s not an easy thing to do well as a rookie big. And on a team like the Heat with that kind of guard, his job isn’t going to be any easier.
I still don’t think there should be any expectation for him to play high minutes, especially early in the year. There are some question marks when it comes to the offensive fit with Adebayo and Butler together, so that would restrict some of the lineups. And there’s also the fact(we’ll get to that more) that they have a very impactful big in Love already. He should eat up some of those minutes too, but with his age, that’s where I can see those minutes be limited as the year goes on.
Here’s our free agent of the year, Burks. They got a shooter.
He’s a career 38% 3-point shooter on 7 3s per 100 possessions. He has four seasons shooting 40% or higher. He also has 3 seasons shooting 10 or more 3s per 100. The volume and efficiency is there. He shoots 42% from the corner with 24% of his shots being there — 6 seasons shooting 42% or higher.
He was in the 77th percentile with the Pistons on spot-ups and 58% with the Knicks. Then in previous years(in brackets is if he was on 2 teams):
92nd → 74th → 68th → 60th(76th) → 94th(62nd)
This year, he also ranked in the 83rd percentile on off-screens, shooting 1.20 points per possession with 10% of his possessions. Though be cautious of that because he doesn’t have a track record of being good on that playtype or used there much. In 2023, it was 0.71 with only 4% and in 2021, 0.58 with 3%.
You can never have too much shooting. Burks should get minutes just because of that. He has shown in his career that he can be a reliable spark plug as a high volume efficient shooter.
He has some flashes of some tough shot making in isolation where over the last five seasons he shot 1.10 points per possession on 223 isolations. It’s only 5% of his total possession, but it’s also an aspect of his game he clearly feels comfortable with and is good at. Part of that is because he’s a grifter for free throw with his .355 career free throw rate and averaging almost 7 FTA per 100 for his career.
But that’s about it. Don’t think about him shooting from the mid-range:
Career 34% from 3–10ft
Career 38% from 10–16ft
Career 36% from 16–3pt
2 seasons shooting above 40% from 3–10ft
9 seasons shooting below 35% from 3–10ft
5 seasons shooting above 40% from 10–16ft
5 seasons shooting below 35% from 10–16ft(4 below 30%)
2 seasons shooting above 40% from 16–3pt
5 seasons shooting below 35% from 16–3pt
It’s basically a 3pt shot or free throws from him.
There were seasons where he has provided some passing. In 2022, he averaged over 5 potential assists with the Knicks. Passed more than he received. That was similar in Philadelphia in 2020, when he averaged again over 5 potential assists.
This is still some depth when it comes to additional shooting, potential scoring punch, and additional ball handling — we’ve seen exactly that in the playoffs for the Knicks.
Highsmith can potentially be much needed piece in the rotation if he continues with the improvements that he made last year. With his already elite defense and how much the Heat needed it, he’s going to get minutes. He’s probably their second most consistent, reliable defender that is capable of taking on the worst possible matchups.
I never get tired of watching Highsmith play defense and I’m glad I won’t have to stop.
It’s his offense that will decide how important he’s going to be. He has looked more comfortable with the ball and more confident with his shot, but that just needs to be better still. He did shoot 33.6% from 3pt in his first two years and this jumped all the way to 39.6%, so there is significant improvements. His volume jumped from 5.6 to 7.0 3s per 100 and that’s the number that needs to go up. If it does, and the efficiency remains similar, he can turn himself into one of the better 3&D players.
It’s a shame that Love is at this age because he’s been so impactful for them this season.
Here’s a thread going through how he rejuvenated his career with the Heat:
He was such a nice bright spot in the season. I wasn’t expecting a 35 year old Love to be that important and good! All the metrics and numbers loved him. He had the best EPM at +2.9 since 2019. He was the most efficient since 2019. He even had a career high D-EPM at +0.7. He was impactful on both ends of the floor.
Despite his 3pt shooting having gone away slightly(because of course, you forget how to shoot when you get to Miami), he still provides the needed spacing. He’s still the best spacing big on this team. Love is chucking those 3s up. He’s taking 13.2 3s per 100, which would rank 8th in the league — same as Sam Hauser. That’s a reason why in the 536 minutes with Love and Butler, the Heat are +9 net with a 120 ORTG. What’s funny is that’s also when his 3pt volume gets even higher. He’s taking 14.8 3s in those minutes, which would be 4th.
You obviously don’t want to be relying on a 35 year old to save anything about your season, but he does bring that valuable skillset of providing the needed spacing. On top of that, when he was fresh, he did everything else well.
He was able to beat closeouts, continue the advantage after drawing the defense because of his 3s, and get to the rim to finish efficiently. He shot 70% at the rim! His second highest was with the Heat last year at 69%! Before that, he had only 2 seasons reaching at least 65%. He even helped with the passing being such a smart passer and decision maker. There were flashes of him punishing mismatches too.
He was literally giving the Heat everything that they need on the offensive end.
Defensively, there are issues that force him into certain roles or make him unplayable at times or against certain matchups, but overall, he was still a positive on that end.
He gave the Heat an option to size up if needed in a case of an emergency because of that high 3pt volume. He was effective as the sole big.
The only issue with him is age and potential injuries. It’d be asking him too much to expect that kind of play consistently. That is the difference between starters and role players. He’ll provide great impact, but only at that 15ish minutes per game. Anything beyond that or over extend him in terms of role and usage, and you’ll cook him.
But right now, I still expect Love to provide invaluable minutes that are going to be needed throughout the year.
Not sure how to feel about Richardson. His time felt disappointing. There was a stretch where his shot was off and couldn’t make anything. Then there was a time he was heating up and couldn’t miss. There was also a time he was doing too much, leading to some questionable possessions. Then there were times he’s doing everything right and is going on runs by himself(I think it was the Kings game he had a good stretch).
His play was very inconsistent and that’s annoying because if you pick out the stretches where he did things well and combined them together, then that’s a pretty damn good role player.
One of the main disappointments was especially on the defensive end. That’s where the inconsistencies showed up the most and it didn’t look good most of the time.
These kinds of possessions were looking like the norm for him. Poor awareness off-ball. Losing his man easily. Poor technique or stances. This wasn’t what I expected from Richardson. Hopefully, that was a blip because that was one of the better things about him early in his career.
Because this is what his impact on defense looked like.
But it wasn’t all that bad because there were plenty of stretches where he did look good. He also had a career high shooting from 2pt at 56.0% — the next highest was 51.7% last year. A lot of that has to do with him shooting better at the rim, he was one of the better rim finishers for the team at 65.4%. But it was his short mid range that popped off where he shot 56.4% within 4-14ft. That was money for him — that’s been like that for two years now, hopefully, that’s here to stay.
I don’t think much changes for him heading into the season. It was unfortunate to see him go down with the injury and it was serious enough that it cost him the rest of the season. That’s the first and most important thing. Let him simply be fully healthy.
Once he’s back in game shape, I expect him to again be that 20-25mpg guy off the bench, hopefully giving you much better defense and be a spot up shooter — on that note, in the last six seasons, he shot 35.9% on 8.1 3s per 100. Not the best shooter, bit streaky too, but at least willing enough to put them up when needed. He’s not the best kind of spacer, but it’s also not at a level where it hurts you that much.
Similar to Larsson and Christopher, he’s going to be needed to bring that additional ball handling too. That shouldn’t be that big of job for him in an ideal situation, but that’s what the Heat will need him to do.
I’m hoping for a bounce-back season because I can see him be a key player in stretches.
Thomas Bryant.
So, that wraps all of the bench, role players, and rookies for this upcoming season. Looking at it, it may be relying a lot on potential younger or less experienced players providing that extra help if needed. That could turn out well. The Heat needed to get some young blood in.