All-Star thoughts & 2nd half of the season
Welcome to the first post of Simply Ballin’s newsletter!
Before transitioning from a website to this newsletter, I had this weekly series called Around the Arc, which was meant to be a weekly piece where I share any of my thoughts on what happened from the week, breakdown games, reaction to breaking news, and anything else that was interesting. Think of this as a unscripted, reaction solo podcast but written where I have the freedom to rant about anything.
So, that’s exactly what this is going to be. Not sure what the plan is when it comes to when it’s going to be published or even if there will be a regular schedule for it — will have to just see the feel of it.
But that’s enough of an introduction.
Let’s start with some All-Star weekend thoughts
All-Star Weekend
I haven’t watched the weekend in full. I didn’t even stay up to watch the games live, as I usually have done. I tuned in for the highlights in the mornings and that was about it.
I don’t know what it is but the All-Star weekend and even the game is becoming less and less entertaining or interesting to watch and I think there are many issues with that.
I understand that the All-Star game will never be as competitive as even a regular season game because there’s no incentive and players wouldn’t want to risk anything. That makes sense.
But it feels like the competitiveness is becoming worse and worse even by the usual All-Star game standards. The way people described the game like five years ago as an exhibition game with a lot of 3s and dunks, recently the games haven’t even touched that level.
There needs to be some work done around making the game more important for the players. At the end of the day, the league can go with an Elam ending and change up the teams from conferences, but everything will come down to the player’s effort for that game.
We already have games wanting to rather be on vacation than play. There have been so many times where the older veterans play around 10 min, take a couple of shots, and that will be it for them. The players will decide how the games will end up.
As for the other contests on Saturday night, that can be changed by the league. There’s obviously the issue with stars declining to be there(again linked with incentivising it so that the players would want to go there).
But I think the lack of creativity and trying other competitions to make it even more fun. There’s only so many 3pt and dunk contests you can watch and still be entertained. The dunk contest hasn’t felt the same since Zach LaVine and Aaron Gordon. And the 3pt contest is very situational..
The weekend need some kind of spark again. Something fresh and new that stars would also like to be in. They need fresh events and stars participating them.
2nd Half of the Season Thoughts
Call it a prisoner of the moment. Call it recency bias. This has been said every single year and I’ll say it again this year — this season has the potential to have the best playoffs. Oh, wow! Shocking.
But even before the playoffs, the last ~25 games should be very interesting because there’s so many things to watch out for.
The standings are still all over the place, especially in the West.
I think it’s fair to say the Denver Nuggets are most likely the first seed. They’ve gave themselves a pretty comfortable cushion. After that, however, anything can happen.
Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers are within 2.5 from a top 3 seed
Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Utah Jazz, Golden State Warriors are all there for the top 6 seed
Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers, Oklahoma City Thunder are still alive for the play-in
Everything is so fluid at every stage. It’s just as easy for the Warriors to miss the playoffs entirely as it is for them to not be in the play-in — and that’s the case for many teams.
The 13th seed up to the 5th seed are one bad or good week away from fighting for the play-in or being in the top-6.
And it’s really hard to predict anything, especially after the trade deadline.
Oh yeah, about the deadline. We are still yet to see Kevin Durant play with the Suns. That alone makes the rest of the season fun to watch. That was one hell of a blockbuster trade.
Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul. That’s one hell of a trio(even with Paul at his age). I don’t have the stats for this, but I’m pretty comfortable those three being the best mid-range trio ever.
Out of guys with at least 500 min, there are 81 players with at least 5 short mid range attempts per 100 possessions:
Durant: 59.7% on 8.9 attempts(2nd)
Paul: 49.2% on 5.2(21st)
Booker: 46.2% on 8.1(38th)
There are 51 players with at least 3 long mid range attempts:
Durant: 57.3% on 6.6(1st)
Booker: 46.9% on 6.3(16th)
Paul: 41.1% on 4.9(37th)
It’s going to be fun to see how that’s going to look. Also quite interested to see Durant with a point guard like Paul.
Another trade that we’re already seeing in action has been with Kyrie Irving getting traded to the Mavericks.
Did you know that the Mavericks are plus 13.5 with a “checks notes” 131.2 offensive rating with Irving on??? They are also plus 15.7 with Irving on but without Luka Doncic.
That has been working exactly how you wanted it to work.
We also have the MVP conversations heating up. We are seeing some of the best individual seasons from many players. Although “I” have my favourite to win, so many players have a legitimate case and even if they don’t, they’re still putting up insane numbers.
There are still other awards that are up for grabs that will be interesting to see how it all pans out.
But the best part of it all is that there isn’t a clear cut favourite. I honestly couldn’t tell you which team can make the finals. I don’t think any team has separated themselves enough to put themselves in a whole other tier.
There are 5 teams have a net rating of +4 or higher(Mil, Mem, Den, Cle, Bos). A lot of teams have a legitimate chance at making a deep playoff run.
So, hopefully, we’re about to watch some great basketball to end the regular-season and set it up for one of the best playoff runs.