Are the Heat stuck in mediocrity once again

A discussion on the core of the Heat & if they're stuck again being mediocre

This is more of an off-season talk but with the All-Star break right now and there’s no games or anything else worthwhile going on with the Heat, I wanted to explore other questions — ones that will be important after these 29 games.

I also wanted to get some thoughts on this after I was thinking about what should we look forward to the post-All-Star break and what should be the goal for the team.

Right now, as it stands, the Heat are ninth in the East and are three games under .500. They are also 9-14 since January and have entered the break on a four-game losing streak.

But even looking before this season, this team was also quite poor in the previous two seasons. They have been hovering around .500 and have made the playoffs twice through the second play-in game. This hasn’t been a team that’s been without issues and is simply transitioning into a similar build but just pushed some goals a bit forward.

This is also not the first year that either Bam Adebayo or Tyler Herro has had most of the offense run through them. This isn’t the first year they were the number one or two options.

All of that considered makes me wonder what the goal or direction is with the team that will have them turn around into a contender. It doesn’t mean a contender next year or the year after. But it’s putting themselves in a position where they can legitimately build toward something that will turn into a contender.

It’s obviously not black and white where it’s either you’re a contender or you’re not, but it’s also making sure that at whatever stage you are at, you are at least on the right path with a clear direction for something.

This can be young teams prioritizing development and looking to round out the core, see what players you have, acquire assets, and looking to strike gold through the draft. It can also be a step after that where you’re comfortable with some of the players that you have and are looking to improve but at the same time not entirely go all in.

With the Heat, I believe they are, instead, heading down the path of mediocrity again.

That is if the direction includes building around both Herro and Adebayo. If those two players remain two of your most expensive and the top players on the team, that is likely not going to be enough to build out the rest of the team to compete — especially with two of them. If that is the core, I don’t see many additions around changing it, even if it includes another young All-Star-level player.

I’ve seen many encouraging and optimistic views about the Heat’s core for the future and how they’re setting themselves up well for the next “whale” to come available.

Firstly, I think that the whole wait for the whale and hope for the best is also just banking on hope. They hit well with Butler but no other relatively big whale became available to them, nor did they have enough assets to get anyone — hello, Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Durant, and Damian Lillard. That strategy alone isn’t sustainable.

But even if you ignore that part of the equation and they somehow manage to get a semi-realistic top talent in the next two years — Trae Young, Durant(again), Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, or De’Aaron Fox — I still don’t think that’s a contender and I will get to that discussion in a different piece that will go through purely from the basketball POV.

Focusing on acquiring either Young or Edwards because those have been the most talked about players and fit with the age. That’s also looking like the likely plan that the Heat are banking on again.

If any of those players, plus both Adebayo and Herro make the most money, it’s going to be very difficult to assemble a team, especially when a team that lacks assets will have used whatever assets they have to get said player. Even if the package for either player is a very low offer where you only part ways with one of Jovic or Ware, Rozier, and three firsts, that still puts you in a bit of a deficit to round out the team.

Outside of talent discussion, the contracts at this point matter just as much, especially if you’re going to be close to the second apron. If that’s the case, you have to either spread that cost for better talent or be sure that the top-end talent is as good as you can get(better top-end talent means more margin of error). This is also what makes the core different now compared to when Butler came where both players were on smaller deals.

And when looking at the talent, that is still against them. Both Adebayo and Herro are players that you need to really accommodate if you’re building around them — that’s why I don’t think you can or should build around them. You can probably afford one of the stars to need to be surrounded by better talent, but two? That’s when roster construction is becoming more difficult.

That’s why, in the likeliest scenario, their two or three-year outlook that revolves around both of them will simply lead to a team that could be good enough but not great enough. They will be in a position that would need one of those players to improve, but that’s just then throwing your chips on said core.

For a young core to look to have a future as a contender, they will need to have someone who can be the best player on a championship team. That is at the lowest, a top-10 caliber player. History is even more strict where a champion has in pretty much 99% of cases been led by someone that was top five in that season.

I think there’s more wiggle room in today’s game if you build the right team where you don’t need a clear top 7 player but a top 15 caliber can still make it happen. But as your top player gets lower and lower, everyone else has to be better and better and that’s the trouble I see building around a core of either Young/Edwards + Herro/Bam.

Take the 2023 Celtics. I can see many players that were All-NBA caliber have a good chance with them if you replaced Jayson Tatum with X player. But that was as ideal as you can get. Most teams aren’t like that.

With the Heat’s current core now and going forward in the next few years, they’d have to fall into that part — unless, of course, Luka Doncic somehow becomes available again but that would probably only happen if Nico Harrison becomes the Lakers GM.

But with that route, the contracts matter, and the talent relative to that contract is the factor. Herro at 20-25% of the cap on a contending team just won’t cut it. Adebayo at 30% is pushing it, too. And if you combine those two with any of the semi-realistic targets, it’s putting you in a tough spot. That’s banking on Jovic and Ware making huge jumps as they’re still on cheap deals(rookie contract or a bargain extension).

Also, going back to the start of acquiring players period, that is also an issue that makes potential roster construction even more difficult.

The Heat never sell. And because they never sell, they will never have additional assets for that kind of player. Even if they have all of their picks, other teams have their own picks and other teams. The Heat look like they will likely remain to compete from behind.

Also, as Barry Jackson has tweeted many times over the last four years, the Heat’s negotiation with other teams for star players comes to an end because of their lack of assets unless they offer Adebayo.

That’s where I see them being stuck in mediocrity. They may have now more assets for an All-Star caliber player, but that won’t be enough and they won’t have any more assets to improve beyond that point. They won’t have an All-NBA caliber. And they also won’t be bad enough to force them to sell to acquire more assets.

And that makes it kind of frustrating as a fan watching the team with a direction that is mediocre and honestly just bad on the court.

This team also may be young but neither Herro nor Adebayo are some players in their third year. Both are 1-2 years older or younger than guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Edwards, Young, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, Garland, and Tatum.

This isn’t a team led by just youngsters looking to still make a name in the league. And they have just been bad. That matters if you are looking to push your chips in on a core.

I don’t even see this in the same way the Cavaliers pushed their chips for Mitchell because Garland was entering his fourth season at 23. Allen was only 24. And Mobley was entering his second year at 21. They were much younger in terms of age, and experience and were significantly cheaper. Those factors matter if you want to push some of your chips in for win-now players(even if they’re in the same age bracket)

What’s the difference between what is happening here and what happened with the Sacramento Kings? New Orleans Pelicans? Atlanta Hawks? Utah Jazz?

Some of those teams that have blown up had their best and second-best player the exact age as Herro and Bam. Take the Raptors’ two-year stretch with Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Fred Vanvleet with some young players. There’s Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Fox and Domantas Sabonis. All of those teams have been significantly better with their top players than the Heat.

The current core isn’t on the level to be thinking that they’re just another All-Star away when this core is also behind on teams that were in similar situations and had to blow it up.

There doesn’t need to be fooling yourself that this core can be a contender with those two and that the reason they aren’t, it’s because they’re young or that they just lack a player of Young or Edwards calibre. They are young, but it’s also not the reason they’re bad either.

This core hasn’t even proved they can be a clear playoff team in the last three years led by those two… and that’s when they still had Butler. That’s another point. The core with a top 10 player was still overachieving and was still behind everyone else in 5 of the 6 seasons. That core with Butler was still moves away before being a legit contender and now they have also taken a step back by not having the biggest piece of a contender — a top 10 talent.

I don’t see this core as we just need to see more of it because Herro is only 25 or Adebayo will flip a switch or something because, by this point in their career, I would’ve wanted to see way more flashes to think they need to cash in for a third star.

Using the Cavaliers as an example again. In 2021, they were 22-50 with Garland in his second year and Allen coming from Brooklyn. They jumped 44-38 next year with Mobley as a rookie(there was also Lauri Markkanen). With their “big 3” already in just the first year, they already look to have more wins than whatever the Heat are doing now.

And unless the Heat decide to blow it up, I don’t see a path out of this — we also know that they won’t blow it up.

I wish I could even talk myself into this core being competitive enough but these last three years have been with those two taking charge and it’s led to three underperforming seasons and one awful series against the Celtics. That’s not an encouraging point when it comes to your core and again, it’s not as if this was their first playoff appearance. I don’t know if Edwards is fixing that either.

That’s why I just hope they don’t fall in love with this group in the same way they have with every other group. This team may have more talent as most would say, which likely improves the floor significantly, but this feels like heading into the 2017-19 era of Heat basketball.

I know the comparison isn’t 1-1, but in 2018, they won 44 games and were the sixth seed led by:

• Dwyane Wade: 36 years old

• Goran Dragic: 31 years old

• James Johnson: 30 years old

• Wayne Ellington: 30 years old

• Hassan Whiteside: 28 years old

• Dion Waiters: 26 years old

• Kelly Olynyk: 26 years old

• Josh Richardson: 24 years old

• Tyler Johnson: 25 years old

A mix of veterans and mid 20 guys with a few young players in:

• Justise Winslow: 21 years old

• Bam Adebayo: 20 years old

• Derrick Jones Jr: 20 years old

Not a clear comparison but it does feel like a very similar three-year stretch. I remember and I have past articles hyping up the core. It was Winslow the next All-Star. Richardson is the next-best wing. Waiters was the scoring guard that finally found his home. Whiteside is a former DPOY candidate. Combine that with pretty decent veterans and it’s a good core to be competitive and continue to develop the young players.

Now, you also then may say they’re in a position for the 2019 off-season in a year or two where they get their next Butler. But in that situation, both Adebayo and Herro would be in the upper tier of guys that would and should be expendable to get that guy.

The reasonable pivot would be flipping Herro for someone like Young and looking to build out that core in the same way you did with Butler. That would be the most realistic, but it would still be far behind a contender or anything else. This would still be looking to compete except with more potential flexibility but I also wouldn’t be a fan of that route either.

In the least likely scenario, but one I believe would be the best decision, purely from a basketball standpoint, is a complete blow-up that sends both Herro and Adebayo for the most picks and young talent possible, with the hope that you hit on players that could have a ceiling of a top player.

But the most reasonable scenario would simply be to stay put. Because I don’t believe that this is a core you should build around, it also means you shouldn’t waste anything looking to get better. By all means, continue to be competitive because that’s the Heat way, but also don’t put yourself in a hole just to stay mid again. Don’t make the same mistakes that left you without draft capital.

That is all going to be the decision for the off-season, but it should still be kept in mind now.

I am in favor of gaining more lottery picks instead of a playoff appearance, but seeing another playoff series that hopefully isn’t against the Celtics would be a good way to see where you’re at heading into the off-season. That could be the difference maker in how you’d want to approach it all.

But for now, they are back to 2018 with a mediocre outlook.