Around the Arc: Celtics-Mavericks Final Thoughts & Quick Off-Season Talk

Quick thoughts on the Celtics-Mavericks finals & going through some off-season talk

Welcome to Around the Arc. Semi-regular thoughts and discussions about anything that is going on or anything I found interesting enough to just talk about. It’s looking into some of the current news that’s happening, reacting to games, and providing a bit of extra analysis or digging deeper into the stats.

We’re only a couple of days post the finals and there are already a number of things to talk about involving the off-season.

Celtics-Mavericks Talk

Starting with the finals, the Boston Celtics have finally gone over the hump and they did so convincingly. They were the best team in the regular season by a good margin. Per Cleaning the Glass, they had a +11.3 net rating with the best offense in NBA history with a 123.2 offensive rating but also gave you the third-best defense with a 112.0 defensive rating. They are the only team since 2001 to be over 7 points better than average on offense and at least 3 points better than average on defense. They were just a dominant team.

And that started with them making the moves to form one of the most balanced teams. That started by acquiring both Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. They excelled in their role and did everything that was needed for them to win.

In the playoffs, the Celtics had a +10.4 net rating with a 119.7 offensive rating in 720 minutes with Holiday on. That dropped to +1.8 with a 111.1 offensive rating in 197 minutes without him. That’s the impact he had.

He was fitted in the perfect role, especially when looking at the role he had with the Milwaukee Bucks:

When Holiday is in that complementary role on offense, his value shows with his off-ball movement, his cutting, his constant movement to get offensive rebounds and be in the right position at the right time. And defensively, he was a huge reason why both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving couldn’t find their comfort in the series.

With Porzingis, he barely played. Only 165 minutes in the playoffs but the impact was still there with the Celtics being +11.4 with a 104.2 defensive rating. That’s where he showed up. Opponents shot 48.4% when he was on the court and that increased to 55.8% without him. His health hurts him but didn’t really hurt the team. But whenever he was on the court, he showed that he can be a very impactful player on both ends of the floor — he did have the best net rating in the first two games, particularly with his defensive impact taking away everything.

But the Celtics didn’t need him and that’s because of Al Horford. I have to give credit to him because the Celtics were +12.2 with him and only +2.5 without him. The way he stepped up on defense against Doncic and Irving on switches where they weren’t able to punish that matchup was huge for this series. They constantly looked to attack him and he did his job. He had many momentum-changing moments too on both ends of the floor.

But this still all started with the Jays. As much as the offense is everyone doing everything. With the Celtics being deep, being very balanced on both ends, it still starts with the best players.

Both of them were crucial in being the drivers of the offense. They put a lot of pressure on the rim every single time they had the ball. They relentlessly attacked anyone who was in front. That’s why their passing stats looked like this:

This is why I’d have Brown as the FMVP. For as much of an argument that Tatum had for his playmaking, that same argument applied to Brown just as much. Combined with his defense and scoring much more efficiently inside was the edge.

He shot 58% from 2pt! Compare that to 46% from Tatum. Both struggled shooting jump shots from 3pt. Both had a similar amount of free throw points. Brown was also 20/24 at the rim.

It’s wild to see Brown getting his FMVP after all of the left-hand jokes that everyone(myself included) were making last year. His improvement was impressive. There were many areas that he took a jump in, particularly with his passing that made all of this possible. He definitely played like he was the best player on the team on multiple occasions.

When it comes to Tatum, the conversations around him were something. He obviously didn’t play like a clear top 7 talent. As much as he did all of the extra work on the glass, his playmaking, and his defense, it’s tough to overlook that awful efficiency, poor shot selection, and missing good looks at that volume. He was still second in usage! So, combine that with his 50% TS, it’s enough to be a bit underwhelming. And this was even the case before the finals — not counting the finals, he had a 49% eFG and 56% TS with 29% USG.

On the other end, we have the Dallas Mavericks. I feel like the conversation around them also went the wrong way a bit too much. They didn’t make the finals by accident or some fluke. It’s just the Celtics were a really bad matchup and were dominant too. That’s a bad combination to go up against.

If it was any other team, I don’t envision the finals going the way they did for the Mavericks. This was the only team that had so many bodies to throw at both Doncic and Irving without giving up anything anywhere else. This was the only team that could fully exploit their defense with their 5-out offense AND again, not give up anything anywhere else. This was the only team that had so many options that they could go to to hunt whatever the Mavericks had.

The Mavericks just didn’t have the counters or the solutions for this team.

Now, playing poorly also was a factor. Irving being almost a non-factor on offense for multiple games was disappointing. Doncic not having the best offensive series allowed the Celtics to not be forced into any adjustments. They weren’t able to force the Celtics to get out of their base defense and force rotations. That’s something that the Celtics themselves were able to do at will.

And yet, honestly, I still think this could’ve been a series had those two played a tiny bit better.

This was Doncic’s first playoffs and there were big concerns. There are things he needs to work on. There were question marks and issues with his game. It is something that will most likely improve over time, but it did feel like it was a necessary step-back or a wall that he and the team needed to hit. Pretty much every legend in NBA history had these kind of moments before eventually going over the hump.

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End of season & off-season talk

But that’s the end of the 2023–24 season. Honestly, a lot of the injuries in the playoffs hurt what should’ve been a much better run.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t play

• Damian Lillard was hurt

• Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier didn’t play

• Tyrese Haliburton was limited

• The New York Knicks were hurt everywhere

• Joel Embiid wasn’t 100% throughout the series

• Kawhi Leonard missed games

• Jamal Murray was hurt

• Zion Williamson didn’t play

• Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen were hurt and missed games

Too many stars and the team’s best players were limited or simply out. That’s not fun. Not seeing teams at full strength in the playoffs is just disappointing.

But we’re now entering the off-season with us already getting news:

• Monty Williams getting fired — what a joke that has been with the Detroit Pistons

• Pascal Siakam agreeing to sign a max contract with the Indiana Pacers — that was a key trade that allowed the Pacers to make the conference finals run and it will be interesting to see them build on it

• Players are extension eligible — Butler, Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, Derrick White, Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray & more

Not a lot is happening yet because things can’t happen. Some of the extensions have a deadline of June 30th and can easily set off a number of different dominos falling everywhere.

Right now, for me, the biggest questions are:

• Will Mitchell commit to staying with the Cavaliers

• What will the New Orleans Pelicans do with Ingram? Are they paying him or will they explore a trade?

• What’s going to happen with the free agents in Klay Thompson, DeRozan, and George?

Some of them feel already locked in. I don’t see a world where Tatum doesn’t lock into his supermax deal. Similar to Murray, I don’t see the Denver Nuggets not paying him.

But it feels like this could be an off-season filled with many major moves that reshuffle the landscape of the NBA.