Around the Arc: Digging Deep Into the Hartenstein Signing, George in Philly, Trading for Bridges

A deeper analysis on some of the key NBA off-season moves - Hartenstein to OKC, George to Philly & Bridges to New York

Hi, & welcome to Around the Arc. A semi-regular thoughts and discussion about anything that is going around the league whether it’s trades or free agency right now or anything I found interesting enough to just talk about. Here, I’ll be looking further into what’s happened and provide that extra context, analysis, and stats, and simply dig a bit deeper into what’s happened.

Yesterday, I went through all of my thoughts for each team’s off-season so far here! Today, I want to dig deeper into some of the major moves and ones that clearly make a team a winner so far in the off-season.

These are:

• Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso to the Oklahoma City Thunder

• Paul George to the Philadelphia 76ers

• Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks

The Thunder are the Winners of the West

You don’t often see a team set themselves up the way the Thunder have right now. Even if they did marginal improvements at best, I’d still project them to be better because of how young they are and that internal growth is likely to be there.

This also wasn’t a young struggling team either. This was the best team in the West. They were second behind the Boston Celtics with a +8.0 net rating, 120.0 ORTG(3rd) and 112.0 DRTG(4th). It was just those two teams that had both a top 8 offense and defense — Knicks were close with 7th and 10th and Nuggets were close with 5th and 9th.

When you include just the minutes with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, that was +11.7 in 1180 minutes. For comparison, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis were +9.6 in 967 minutes.

This didn’t change much in the playoffs where they had a +6.5 net through two rounds.

Now, they’re adding two players who will help them a lot on both ends of the floor with Hartenstein and Caruso. Let’s go through what those 2 players will bring and see how that will all fit for the Thunder.

Some basic stats for Hartenstein:

• 11/12/4 per 75 possessions on 64% eFG & 67% TS

• +4.7 EPM(97th percentile) 14th overall!

• +3.9 D-EPM(99th)

• Knicks were +10.3 with him on & -0.4 without him

He was one of the most impactful players for the Knicks and in the league in general. His impact was felt as he pushed himself to being a starter later in the year, where you can also see him trending upwards:

One reason for that is the rim protection he provides. With him on the court, the opponents are shooting 60.7% at the rim. Take him off and that jumps up to 66.2%.

When opponents challenge Hartenstein at the rim, he defends over 6 shots within 6ft and players are shooting only 53.1%. That’s 11.2% worse than expected. Out of 34 players that defend at least 6 shots, he’s 6th in %. That saw a similar trend in the playoffs too.

That’s going to matter whether the Thunder have Holmgren on or off the court. With both of them, that defense in the paint is going to be insane. The opponents already shot 59.9% with Holmgren on the floor, with him allowing only 52.9%, which is 11.4% worse. The issue for the Thunder was also when he went off the floor where they allowed 65.6%.

They will either have an elite, elite rim protection with 1 of them being the weakside defender helping off eat up anything that comes and they will have an elite rim protector for 48 minutes.

Next is the rebounding. Although Hartenstein isn’t the best defensive rebounding guy, he’ll still provide more than what the Thunder had. They ranked 29th in opponent offensive rebound % at 28.9% — that jumped to 30.9% in the playoffs.

The Knicks with Hartenstein on had an opponent 24.6% and that got worse by 1.7% without him. That is significant for this Thunder team. They don’t have to be elite or top 10, they just can’t be 29th.

But he will also help a lot on the offensive glass. The Knicks with him on had a 31.5% ORB — the Thunder had 23.7%. That’s another significant difference that Hartenstein should help with. It gives them an option to crash the glass because they will have a player who’s one of the best at it. In the playoffs was second in offensive rebounding, fourth in OREB chances, and fourth in contested ORB. He will get those boards.

Then there’s everything else he does on offense that is the usual big man stuff.

He is a big 7fter that’s efficient inside. 71% at the rim with 64% of his shots there. 26% of his shots are dunks. But it’s his range from around the paint area that’s really effective. He shoots 57% within 3–10ft and has that deadly floater, push shot. That and his passing as a big man on the short roll gives him two effective options.

And when it comes to his passing, that can be used effectively to maximize the 5-out spacing that the Thunder want to use. Hartenstein has been used a lot as a hub. So many plays with him finding cutters as Jalen Brunson gets overplayed. He makes a lot of highly accurate passes through tight windows. In the playoffs, amongst centers, he was 7th in passes made and 8th in potential assists.

Next, we have Caruso. I’m not sure how much of a need he addresses, but he makes everything they were already doing a lot better. Plus, you just can’t be wrong getting arguably the best guard defender without giving up much that impacted you.

I talked more about the Caruso trade here! Where I went through some of the questions and what he brings.

It all starts with the defense. His D-EPM was +3.4, which was good enough for 5th overall and he’s been in the 99th percentile in D-EPM in 3 of the last 4 seasons. And he’s had a steal rate of 2.6%(94th percentile or higher) in hist last 5 seasons. He’s going to cause chaos.

This will surely help the Thunder that ranked 1st in opponent turnover % with 15.7. With the Bulls, they had 15.6%, 17.1%, 15.7% opponent TOV% with Caruso on.

You can also see the kind of impact Caruso has on the defense. Here’s the Bulls defense with and without him:

• 2024: 114.1 → 119.7

• 2023: 109.2 → 115.2

• 2022: 108.1 → 116.7

He will certainly help the defense, but I have a lot of question marks on the offensive end.

His offensive impact metrics are negative in each season, with his best being this year at -1.0 O-EPM. The Bulls offense was getting better without him too(113.9 → 116.6). Even if you say he was on a championship team, the Lakers too were 3.5pts better on offense without him. I don’t know how much help he gives you on that end.

He’s a career 38% 3pt shooter on just under 3 attempts. He did have his most efficient season with 59.3% eFG and 61.3% TS, he doubled his 3pt volume and shot 41% but somehow was still negative in impact metrics. Something doesn’t add up.

His spot up efficiency numbers over the years are underwhelming:

• 52nd percentile → 53rd → 33rd → 73rd → 39th(25th in the bubble)

That makes me wonder whether they will have similar issues offensively as they did with Josh Giddey. But most likely makes up for it with the defense and all of the game saving plays that he will have.

This was still a massive win for the Thunder with both of these players. They got a lot better.

All this does, particularly with Hartenstein is give them versatility and more options on both ends of the floor. This is something they didn’t have at all. They didn’t have anyone as skilled at that size. And I don’t see how much they have to give up on either end if they do play both him and Holmgren together. And with Caruso, they’re making themselves a lot more dangerous defensively.

The 76ers are the Winners of the East

It paid off. Everything that the 76ers were hoping for with all of the moves made to be in this position has paid off. They maxed out the cap space by having virtually no players on the books to end up getting the best player on the market in George.

I don’t think there are many other players that could be a better fit in Philadelphia than George with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid.

This feels like a similar position as the Thunder where they were already good. This isn’t a team that was “okay” and now are making a move to be great. This is a great team adding a top 30 player.

Just as a reference, in 958 minutes with both Embiid and Maxey on, they were +11.7 with a 124.6 ORTG. You had Embiid average 38 points per 75 possessions on 65% TS with 40% usage. Then there was Maxey adding 20 points on 58% TS with 22% usage.

That was with Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, and Nicolas Batum being the three players with the most minutes next to them. Now, you’re replacing one of them with George.

George is a career 38% 3-point shooter on 10 3s per 100. In the last 5 years, he’s 40% on 11 3s. The shooting that he provides at such a high volume is going to fit perfectly with 2 players that will get him those looks. Out of all players who played at least 100 minutes with Embiid, only Maxey attempted over 10 3s per 100 and he shot 37%.

This is how elite George is a catch & shoot guy:

And here are his ranks on spot-ups (starting this year)

• 93rd percentile → 83rd → 93rd → 96th → 81st → 95th → 92nd → 84th → 84th

Since 2016, his lowest rank is 81st percentile and 5 of them are in the 90s. That has to be historic level.

Then you get to his off-screen:

• 68th → 40th → 72nd → 44th → 88th → 84th → 71th → 67th → 67th

Not as elite as his spot up but still effective. His off-ball game alongside those two should be so good together. This feels like the perfect piece for them.

Even as a finisher inside, he’s been pretty good. He’s shooting 71% from 2pt with touch time 2s or less. When he’s simply finishing plays at inside, it’s efficient.

And there are so many ways of using it. You can have him away in the corners. He’s a career 44% corner shooter with 18% of his shots there. He’s shooting 52% from the corner in the last 5 years! He will certainly draw defenses there. Or you can have him be 1 pass away as Maxey attacks or in an Embiid post-up? The options are there. Maybe even having him involved in screens for Maxey.

This is a much, much, much better version of what Harris should’ve provided.

Then there’s also the benefit of having George who’s still a reliable on-ball option. Although there have been declines in that area, that’s still a good option in lower usage.

With Embiid on and no Maxey, the 76ers were +4.2 but with a 111.5 ORTG. The other way around, they were +0.3 with a 117.6 ORTG. George can help in those minutes when two of them would be on the court.

The Clippers with George on and no Harden, they were +8.4 with a 120.1 ORTG. George in those minutes scored 28 points per 75 poss on 61% eFG & 65% TS with a 28% usage. When you take Leonard off too, that increased to 31 points on the same efficiency but with a 32% usage.

A lot of it has to do with his 3pt shot creation. With both Harden and Leonard, George has 83% of his 3s assisted. That drops to 37% without them both. That’s what George will bring as an elite 3pt shooter.

Though that’s where the big positives end for me when it comes to his on-ball creation. His free throws per 100 is the lowest since his third season. His rim pressure is declining with only 13% of his shots within 3ft. He settles on the tough long jumpers, with 14% of his shots there in the last 5 seasons but only shooting 42%. Having more long 2s than rim shot isn’t ideal.

The passing has been there in the past, though it did decline this year. Here are his potential assists over the years:

• 5.7 → 8.8 → 10.4 → 8.9 → 6.5 → 7.8

The skill is there. He will likely also not be asked to be the playmaker or the engine of the offense with both Embiid and Maxey, but it is something that’s there as an option when they go to the bench for a limited time.

Defensively, he gives them another big wing that can switch on multiple guys without getting abused or exploited. One thing that stands out, is his steal percentage:

For a team like the 76ers, who also ranked 4th in opponent TOV%, this is going to be key in what they do best.

Overall, this has the potential to be the best move the 76ers have made for Embiid. With how the offense has looked under Nick Nurse and how both Embiid & Maxey have grown as offensive players, adding George to the mix is perfect. Then when you combine the other smaller additions they’ve also made, I think they have safely made themselves the second-best team in the East.

Bridges Helps, But Was it an Overpay?

The first reaction to this trade was HOW MANY PICKS? Seeing the amount of picks that the Knicks sent for Bridges has left me with 1 question. Who do they think Bridges is.

I do like what Bridges gives, especially on a good team surrounded by better offensive players. What we have seen is the role he was asked to play in Brooklyn was over-extended. It was asked too much of him and he didn’t have the skills for that. It was unlikely that he was going to keep up with what he was doing in the 27 games last year.

But that’s in the context of the Nets. In the context of the Knicks with Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Donte DiVincenzo, Mitchell Robinson, and Julius Randle, he should fit there well.

The first thing that stands out from Bridges is how he upped his 3-point volume. He shot 37% on 10.3 3s per 100. Before going to the Nets, the highest was 6.6 in 2021. Almost doubled the volume with good efficiency.

Similar to the points about George, this is what I’d expect from Bridges. An excellent off-ball player that can be used in so many different ways. Although he’s not as effective as George, here are his catch & shoot numbers:

• 2024: 38.5% on 5.6

• 23: 38.8% on 4.4

• 22: 38.3% on 3.4

• 21: 40.5% on 4.1

He’s going to add more shooting around Brunson and Randle. They only have Donte and Miles McBride as rotational wings/guards that shot over 10 3s per 100. Adding more high volume shooters is going to be a good thing.

And that’s not the only thing he can do, though it is a big part of his game — 36% even with the Nets were C&S. But now, he will also go back to attacking closeouts, attacking off the catch, cutting, and doing a bunch of things without the ball. It’s easier to do that when the defense is actually shifted. Even when he was off-ball, Cam Thomas attacking vs Brunson isn’t the same thing. They would result in widely different looks generated.

In that similar role in Phoenix, that’s a reason why he shot 72% at the rim, 49% within 3–10ft and 46% within 10–16ft. When 72% of his 2s were assisted, he was even more effective. What better situation for that than with Brunson getting all of the attention?

But this is also not just Bridges and how he was in Phoenix. Although he wasn’t that effective in the star role in Brooklyn. It was still at least average or showed flashes. Those flashes in a limited usage and role is going to be more effective with the Knicks. He still averaged over 6 potential assists. He still had 56% TS on a tough-shot diet. He still averaged over 5 free throws per 100 and had a .245 free throw rate.

For comparison, in the playoffs, Brunson averaged 12.1 then the next highest was Josh Hart with 4.6. Donte had 3.4 and OG had 2.1. Having Bridges will give them that additional scoring boost off the dribble and on-ball creation that they lacked. Though he’s not elite at it, he’s better than what they have currently. The fit offensively is just perfect with what they needed whether it’s complementing the stars or having an additional on-ball creator that can in bursts do more.

Then defensively, he brings versatility. Here are some of the top matchups he had this year according to possessions per game:

• Zach LaVine

• Terry Rozier

• Anthony Edwards

• Shai Gilgeous Alexander

• Anfernee Simons

• Stephen Curry

• James Harden

• Collin Sexton

• Kyrie Irving

I think you get the picture of who he mostly guards. He’s taking that defensive load off someone, whilst being one of the best at it. They can have one of the better defensive versatile lineups they can throw out with Hart, Donte, Bridges, and Anunoby.

I do really like this move getting Bridges, but I’m still not sure whether this is the kind of move you trade so many picks for. I don’t know if Bridges was the player that gets them over the hump.

This is also more concerning with them losing Hartenstein. That loss feels like it will hurt more than what bringing Bridges will offset. If it was adding Bridges onto the team with Hartenstein, I’d feel a lot better.

But there’s also one big question with the Knicks that should be more addressed or explored and that’s trading away Randle. I don’t see much of the need for him, especially if they could use him to address their big situation.

Regardless, this move still makes them better and has put them in the upper tier with the 76ers.