Around the Arc: Free Agency Thoughts For Each Team So Far

A long(quick) discussion on every single NBA team's off-season so far!

Hi, & welcome to Around the Arc. A semi-regular thoughts and discussion about anything that is going around the league whether it’s trades or free agency right now or anything I found interesting enough to just talk about. Here, I’ll be looking further into what’s happened and provide that extra context, analysis, and stats, and simply dig a bit deeper into what’s happened.

Today, we’re going through all the main moves that have happened so far in the off-season for each team. We’ve already seen big movers in free agency, countless picks being traded, contending teams getting better, contending teams getting worse, or making no moves. Honestly, so far, there have been enough moves that make you want to fast-forward to see how it will all look like

So, let’s just talk about each team & the moves they made or haven’t made.

Starting off with some lottery or play in teams that have made “some” moves but either aren’t that big in the grand scheme of things or changed what we already do know.

Draft, Extensions, Development, Minor Signing & Potential Blow-ups for Lottery Teams

Hornets, Bulls, Blazers, Jazz, Wizards, Spurs, Pistons, Raptors

These are the handful of teams that started as lottery or play-in teams that were mostly already in the rebuilding stage. A lot of their off-season moves so far revolved around the draft, trading away their veterans, or using cap space to get some minor additions that could help in that process.

A lot of the moves in this tier honestly just get the reaction of “okay”. 7 of the 8 teams have drafted someone in the lottery(with the Raptors being the only exception. Only three of the teams so far have made a signing that matters to some extent(Spurs, Wizards, and Pistons). Both the Bulls and Raptors locked up some of their players. Bulls, Jazz, and Blazers have or should consider moving on from some of their veterans.

Hornets

The Hornets drafted Tidjane Salaun sixth overall, traded a bunch of seconds for Josh Green and Reggie Jackson, and that’s about it for now. The core and direction of the team is still the same, with it being prioritizing player development and being in that play-in range.

Pistons

In a similar boat, you have the Pistons who again are locked in that lottery position and with the direction of the team being the same. With J.B Bickerstaff being the new head coach and a new president of basketball operations in Trajan Langdon, they might have a clearer goal of what needs to happen.

They drafted Ron Holland 5th overall, which kind of makes it a questionable fit right now. Cade Cunningham has been given the rookie max, which was to be expected. They traded for more shooting in Tim Hardaway Jr, though it does depend which Hardaway they end up getting.

His 3pt shooting since 2020: 39.8% → 39.1% → 33.6% → 38.5% → 35.3%

But the good news is that it does average out to 37.5% on 12.7 3s per 100 possessions, which is a great volume to have. He is a shooter that the defense will respect a lot more than what they currently have.

And they also signed Tobias Harris to a two-year deal, that brings him back to Detroit, which I also don’t hate. They get a quality veteran that can help with their shooting and they can get his money as expiring for next season. Though similar to Hardaway, his 3pt shooting has been a bit up and down and his volume is half of what Hardaway does. The good sign is that when he was with the Pistons over 5 years ago, he was shooting 37.6% on 6.8 3s per 100 with them. Maybe they up his volume again. And another bonus is in four of the six seasons with the 76ers, he averaged over four assists per 100.

Wizards

A team that finally has the rebuilding direction with youth. The Wizards are going all in on that youth movement. They added three players in the first round with Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George. They did also make a surprising signing with Jonas Valanciunas to a 3-year deal, which I assume was done to get deeper at the big position. They did part ways with Deni Avdjia, who probably has more value on a better team, and seeing the package that they got for him, it probably wasn’t that hard to pass on.

Spurs

The Spurs are keeping the same team with the addition of their fourth overall pick, Stephon Castle, and a surprise signing in Chris Paul. That I like a lot. I wasn’t expecting them to make any bigger swing moves because I don’t see them as being ready for that, but this is a good move below that. Adding Paul to a team has worked out a lot for teams in the past. The Spurs desperately needed a point guard.

The Spurs with Tre Jones were -0.4 in 2138 minutes with a 113.7 offensive rating(also shooting 56% from 2pt and 35% from 3pt). When he went to the bench, that dropped to -12.7 in 1828 minutes with a 106.9 offensive rating. When you add Victor Wembanyama with Jones, they were a +5.1 in 1288 minutes with a 115.4 offensive rating!

That had a huge impact on Victor’s efficiency. Without Jones, he had a 47% eFG & 52% TS with a 31% usage. Give him Jones and that jumps to 54% eFG & 59% TS with a 33% usage. Now, hopefully, Paul has something left in his tank. And even beyond the on-court production, that leadership is going to be key for this young Spurs team looking to make leaps.

Now, we have three similar teams, in a way that they could get more young assets to help them rebuild and go into the youth by trading some of their better players.

Jazz

The Jazz drafted two first-round picks in Cody Williams and Isaiah Collier, and Kyle Filipowski, who was projected to be one too. They’re already a young team. They have three more players that were rookies last year. Now, it all depends with what are they going to do with Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, and John Collins. I don’t expect all of them to be moved, but if the right offer comes along, they could retool with so many more draft picks and prospects to help ease into the full rebuild. We already had so many trades made up for Markkanen.

Bulls

That’s the same for the Bulls, except they don’t have as much young talent with upside. They drafted a Matas Buzelis and that’s adding to the “young” core of Ayo Dosunmu, Patrick Williams(who they extended), and Coby White. Oh, and they also started the off-season trading Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey(with no other picks). Now, as with the Jazz, it all depends on them moving on from Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan. It’s time to blow it up and take that direction. That’s what their off-season should be about.

Blazers

Continuing with their decision to rebuild last year, the Blazers made some moves drafting Donovan Clingan and trading for Avdjia. They’re in the exact boat as two above with them already having this direction, but still having some veterans on the team. They moved on from Brogdon. It’s probably time to move on Jerami Grant now too. I do wonder what happens to DeAndre Ayton with the Clingan pick or what happens to Anfernee Simons, who’s already 25 that’s probably ahead of what they want to do. For them, it’s just a time to wait and see what they can get for the veterans.

Raptors

Finally, we have the Raptors. They started this rebuild last year with them not bringing back Fred VanVleet, trading OG Anunoby, and eventually trading Pascal Siakam. They’ve started fresh and they seem committed. They had a few picks in the draft, including Ja’Kobe Walter in the first round. They gave max extensions for Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes. They look like to have a core to go into the season with, but I’m not sure what the overall plan or direction is and I don’t think there are many moves to go from here beyond potentially trading Bruce Brown.

Playoff Teams But Still Waiting On Moves

Nuggets, Celtics, Grizzlies, Heat, Bucks, Lakers, Timberwolves, Kings, Cavaliers, Rockets, Magic, and Suns

This is grouping all kinds of teams here. There are contending teams that are essentially running it back. There are playoff teams that are looking to make a swing move. There are teams that are still in a limbo with what they could potentially do. This is mainly for the teams that can’t, haven’t or likely won’t make any significant moves for whatever reasons.

Celtics

Starting off with the defending champs that are “really” running it back. The Celtics have brought back pretty much everyone. They had a lot of players already locked up and ended up giving extensions to both Jayson Tatum and Derrick White. That was all to be expected and they’re going to end up being one of the most expensive teams in a season or so, but that matters nothing when it comes to winning now.

They’ve been the best team throughout the whole year and they are bringing that same group. They lead the team league with a +11.3 net rating and were even better when any of their starters were playing. As long as everyone is healthy, I don’t see why they shouldn’t be the favorites again. I don’t think anyone expected anything else from them in the off-season.

Nuggets

Another team that is likely to running it back? The Nuggets. They’re not having a good off-season right now. They started well with drafting DaRon Holmes, which could potentially work out well to help the non-Nikola Jokic minutes. But all that good was erased with them losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and having nothing to replace him. This feels a lot like last year with them losing Jeff Green and Bruce Brown, except this time, they lost a starter. In the last two years, the Nuggets were +10.7 in 4783 minutes with KCP on. That dropped to -5.4 in 3113 minutes without him.

This is someone who was needed for his 3-point shooting(41.5% with Denver), but most importantly, providing all-defensive level defense at point of attack. It will be interesting to see how they’ll go about replacing that production if there are any moves to be made.

Bucks

I’m surprised to see the Bucks doing nothing yet. I don’t know if they will make drastic changes because they could but at the same time they might want to see this team healthy in the playoffs. They already made the swing move last year trading for Damian Lillard. Now, so far, they only added Delon Wright and drafted AJ Johnson late. These aren’t moves that scream a team getting better, but do they need those moves?

With both Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court, they were +9.5 in 1756 minutes with a 123.9 ORTG. The move for Lillard clearly worked for them on the offensive end. Add Khris Middleton to that and that jumps to +17.2 in 758 minutes with a 127.5 ORTG. That trio works.

Though, I would explore trades around the edges. I wouldn’t be surprised if they entertain moving on from Brook Lopez, but that can be a risky move, particularly in the regular season. With both Lillard and Giannis, but no Lopez, they were +1.1, but they had a 124.7 DRTG. That jumped to 110.6 with Lopez included. He’s still a crucial piece on the defensive end, at least through the year in the regular season. But right now, it seems they’re rocking with the same group, which makes sense.

Wolves & Suns

The Wolves and Suns are essentially in the same boat. Both have massive salaries on the books with not much flexibility outside of really shaking it up at the top. If it doesn’t include trading one of the team’s top three players, it’s probably not happening. The only moves they can make are ones around the edges.

The Wolves drafted Rob Dillingham to give them a boost in shot creation and scoring, but now have lost Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris. Their off-season so far is just “okay” and not much has(or could) changed that would change their ceiling.

And that’s the same with the Suns. With them having so much salary tied up, there aren’t many moves other than to run it back. Similar to the Wolves, they’re adding a rookie in Ryan Dunn and have stole Morris. But again, their off-season is likely to be this and everything just is banking on their core being better and getting some veterans on the minimum.

Then we have five relatively young teams that are looking to get better and make the push, but so far have made limited moves to take those jumps and that will remain to be a question mark until they decide to do something(if anything)

Grizzlies

The Grizzlies drafted Zach Edey and let go of Luke Kennard. That’s it. They did address the big position to hopefully work it out with Jaren Jackson Jr. Their season looked a lot different than what it should’ve been only because of injuries, so it makes sense why their off-season is on the quiet side. Ja Morant only played 9 games. Desmond Bane played 42. Marcus Smart played 20. Jackson Jr was the highest with 66. I don’t think you can make many moves without knowing what you have already. But they did address the 5 positions, which will be the biggest question.

Magic

The Magic pretty much-locked everyone up, drafted Tristan da Silva, and stole KCP. I like their off-season. I didn’t think they needed a swing move. It would’ve been nice to get Paul George because that kind of player could’ve pushed them higher. But I don’t see an issue of going for a conservative approach whilst still addressing the needs. They’re banking on internal improvements a lot and hopefully KCP with the veteran, proven championship experience will help a lot with that. Because “whispers”, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter Jr were +7.0 in 751 minutes.

Rockets

This is similar to what the Rockets are doing. They drafted well with Reed Sheppard and that’s it. They were also one of those younger teams that kind of made a jump in the regular season. They had a mix of solid veterans with young guys improving. They’re banking on that. BUT there have also been reports that they could be involved in a big swing move to make a splash. That could change things a lot. Right now, I’m assuming they’re running it back and hoping for leaps, but if they could pull whatever trade for proven veterans(depending on the cost), I’d like their off-season a lot.

Cavaliers

The Cavaliers got their direction… for now. Donovan Mitchell is locked up with the three-year extension and now they can safely pivot to improving the team. But now I’m left wondering what the improvements are? It’s been quiet and I assume that was because of Mitchell’s decision. But now, it’s time to do something.

But what do you do? Last year the four of Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen were +8.9 with a 121.7 ORTG in 871 minutes. This year that dropped to +2.6 with a 115.4 ORTG in 392 minutes. Less of a sample and got worse. That’s a question mark.

What about Mitchell but no Garland, they were +8.8 with a 118.4 ORTG in 1192 minutes, but that died to -0.1 the other way around. And what’s equally as concerning is that with them both on, they were only +4.0 with a 116.3 ORTG. This is the same pattern for the two big lineups. Mobley and Allen on were +1.4 but with Allen alone, they were +6.1. Is there something there?

They were a good team. They did end up going to the second round while dealing with injuries. But this team has a lot of questions about their guards, the bigs, and how they work all together if they want to improve to the next tier. And right now, I don’t know what those answers are in the off-season.

Kings

Not sure what the plan is for the Kings. They did lock up Malik Monk to a bargain deal, which is great. But what is the direction? What do they want to do with this core? So far, they’re silent in the off-season. Will that continue to be a thing? Are they planning to make moves but can’t? Do they want to improve but don’t have the assets?

Because even with both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, they were only +3.0 in 1915 minutes. That low of a net with two of your best players is concerning. It does feel like there’s a ceiling on the core and could require a significant reshuffle. Right now, time will only tell.

Finally, we have the two teams that should 100% make a move but they just can’t(or won’t).

Lakers

With the recent news that LeBron James is getting the extension, the Lakers are almost over the second apron, which is obviously great because the restrictions are easy to get around. And right now, they have the same team. Are they really going to run with the same team that lost to the Nuggets in the first round fully healthy

Sure, they’ve added one of the better players in the draft with Dalton Knecht, but is that the difference-maker? They also already had both Anthony Davis and James play 76 and 71 games. They had their two stars healthy. But now, I don’t know what else they can do with so little flexibility, not even sure they have realistic options. Is their path to retooling trading D’Angelo Russell? Is JJ Redick the key to it all being the head coach?

Heat

That same goes to the Heat. With limited assets, they don’t have much of a way to retool or reshuffle the roster. That’s why the only moves right now have been extending Bam Adebayo, bringing back Kevin Love, and drafting Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larsson. Those are the most realistic options to do something with the team.

There are some paths that could happen down the line, such as trading Tyler Herro, but those are moves that honestly won’t likely happen. With the lack of moves, lack of potential moves, limited assets, and being expensive, it’s tough to see them getting out of this with a retooled roster.

The “Big” Movers

Hawks, Nets, Mavericks, Warriors, Clippers, Pelicans, Thunder, Knicks, 76ers

Finally, we have the teams that have made some kind of big move one way or the other and it also doesn’t have to have a huge impact itself. These also aren’t moves that I’d necessarily like either, but they are still bigger or have the potential to be bigger than anything else we had.

Let’s start with the two teams that after these moves, they will probably push themselves into the 1st set of teams that won’t be making much significant change.

Hawks

The Hawks had the number one overall pick and used that on Zaccharie Risacher. It feels weird for the team to have had the first pick but aren’t your typical rebuilding team. They were already looking to make a push two years ago with the Dejounte Murray trade but that hasn’t worked out so well. That’s why their first big move of the off-season was moving on from Murray to the Pelicans for Larry Nance Jr, Dyson Daniel and picks.

That feels like the right value for Murray. A solid rotational player, a young player and picks. But what does that really do for the Hawks?

Now, it feels like they’re in a weird spot going forward with the off-season. They were already looking to make cost-saving moves because they’re a play-in team that is paying the tax. Not the best place to be in.

Do they continue to build around Trae Young and reshuffle the roster any way they can? Or do they move on? But that’s also tricky because they don’t have their own picks. So, unless they’re trading Young to the Spurs for their picks back, they don’t have much of a choice to look to stay competitive, but now it will be a question of how.

Nets

Another similar team that did kind of blow it up was the Nets. They finally traded Mikal Bridges and they got a haul. This was a big overpay from the Knicks and I can see why the Nets were holding on to him. So, they got a bunch of picks from the Knicks and they made a smart trade to get their picks back from the Rockets. Now, they can easily tank for the top pick and have a new direction with the team going forward. This has been a great off-season for the Nets after these two seasons of doing whatever they were doing.

Pelicans

Now, the Pelicans have ended up with Murray, but now going forward with the off-season, I don’t know what the moves are, so I see them in the same way as a team like the Kings. The Pelicans have so many other questions even when you consider health. We still haven’t seen Zion Williamson in the playoffs, so it makes it difficult to try to project what they will need to make that push.

They tried to address their center position with Yves Messi after letting go of Valanciunas, but is that a good answer? Or are they still searching for the big like Allen? They likely don’t need Garland anymore, so that trade can happen in different ways.

What happens with Brandon Ingram too? This is where I don’t get the Murray trade. Murray is another guard who isn’t entirely efficient(career 53% TS with his career-high being 55.5%), doesn’t get to the free throw line(he has a .177 free throw rate for his career and .168 since 2020) , doesn’t finish well from inside the arc, isn’t a strong 3pt shooter, and isn’t great off-ball. The fit issues with better players come up again with him. So, they’re just left in a bunch of unknown

Clippers

Speaking of the unknown in the way. The Clippers are going into their own unknown. They are moving away from the Kawhi Leonard & Paul George era. That is absolutely wild to me. Not a single finals appearance either. I don’t know if that is more shocking or letting him go for free when there should’ve been a way to get something for him. They had to find a way somehow.

But now they’re moving onto a world with just Leonard and James Harden as the star offensive players. They filled it up with Kris Dunn, Nicolas Batum, Derrick Jones, Kevin Porter Jr, and Mo Bamba. They’ve done a pretty good job filling out the hole that George left.

Though they were -6.4 without George in 1439 minutes with a 112.7 ORTG. That’s going to be a big hole to fix. You don’t find many big wings that are such elite 3pt shooters that can handle the ball and do a bit of everything at a decent level. Even with Leonard and Harden on, without George, they were still a -1.5 but with a 114.8 ORTG. It’s going to take some adjustment and banking a lot on health again. It sucks that they lost him and that has made them worse, but I think they did a good job making the most out of it to be a disaster. All the players they acquired will help.

Warriors

Another era of the unknown. For the first time since 2011, the Warriors are entering a season without Klay Thompson on the roster. But they’ve done a pretty good job pivoting with De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson. Melton, if healthy, should provide some of the ball handling and attempt to offset the drop off in shooting. They also had to waive Chris Paul, which is something.

I liked that they pivoted quickly and made something out of nothing, but this isn’t a team that I’d believe to be even in the playoffs. I have a hard time seeing this team be barely a play-in team. I don’t know how much Curry can carry a team at this point and none of the moves have made anything easier. The vets are a year older, that will matter and I don’t know if the younger players are there to make a significant impact. If these are the moves from the Warriors, I’d be worried.

Mavericks

The Mavericks made the finals and got better. They addressed the weaknesses that hurt them in the finals and plugged that right away by adding Thompson, Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes. All three should help some way or the other on both ends of the floor.

I do think losing Jones Jr is going to hurt a bit on the defensive end and with the lobs, but Marshall is a good replacement that will give them more on the offensive end.

We already know what they got in Thompson with his elite 3pt shooting. He ranked in the 63rd percentile in spot ups, 56th in handoffs, and 66th in off-screen. He’s going to provide that needed 3pt shooting from anywhere on the court.

I like this off-season so far from the Mavericks with them addressing their main needs.

Thunder

This same goes to the Thunder with them making the move for Isaiah Hartenstein. This year, he ranked in the 97th percentile in EPM with +4.7. He was a very impactful player on both ends of the floor — giving rim protection, being used a short roll hub, and having one of the best floaters in the game.

In the playoffs, players shot 10% worse than expected vs Hartenstein at the rim(11% in the regular season). He has proved to be effective protecting the rim and in the playoffs done a good job on that end doing different things. He should bring some more versatility on that end for the Thunder that haven’t had a big like this.

And on the offensive end, they also didn’t have a player that can set screens like that, roll and make what play was needed. Hartenstein shot 57% within 3–10ft(61% in the playoffs and 53% within 10–16ft). Whether it’s in the PNR or in the dunker, that shot can give the Thunder more options.

This signing alone addressed a big need and made the off-season a win. But they also re-signed Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to longer deals and locked up this core. I love the off-season from them so far.

Knicks

With the Knicks, I think they overpaid for Bridges and got worse losing Hartenstein. I’m skeptical on their off-season right now. I wasn’t a big fan of the Bridges trade or seeing what he gives them that would push them ahead or whether it addressed what hurt them in the playoffs.

It feels like a question of I don’t know who they think Bridges is. Is he a guy to throw at five picks at? That’s the worry for me. This was their big move, big splash, using up a lot of their assets and I don’t know how much better they are. Defensively, it’s great. That’s where they can reach a higher ceiling. It’s the offense that has a bunch of question marks and reluctance.

Oh, and there’s the question of Julius Randle. What do you do with him. But being this the first major move of the off-season and using up a lot of the assets without addressing a lot of the concerns, whilst still leaving other questions open, feels like a wait and see move.

76ers

Finally, the team that I think made the biggest splash. The 76ers get their guy with all that cap space. Getting George to team up with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey is a win. It all depends on what “Paul” they get because in theory, this is all perfect.

This feels like they just drastically improved what they wanted Harris to be. As mentioned in the Pistons talk, Harris isn’t the shooter that George is or as willing. George is one of the most lethal, high-volume shooters — shooting 40% over his last 5 seasons on over 11 3s per 100 poss. That’s the kind of shooting the 76ers haven’t had in a long while. George should work perfectly when they’re on the court together whether it’s playing off those 2 or in tangent together. With Embiid and Maxey being 2 very different positions, those actions likely won’t be switched, so they’ll get all kinds of looks with those two involved with George.

And when he’d be asked to do more, he can do just that, especially inside the arc shooting 70% at the rim, and over 45% in all other areas. This felt like the perfect match for them.

Plus with the moves such as Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and bringing back Kelly Oubre, I think they are the clear winners of all winners in the off-season.