Around the Arc: Suns Can't Miss, Paolo & Franz, Pull-Ups With Shai & Ant
Welcome to Around the Arc!
Around the Arc is a semi-regular thoughts and discussion about anything that is going around the league. It’s everything that I found interesting that I want to talk about. It will be diving into particular games, breaking down key performances or takeaways from games, and it will be looking further into what’s going on by providing that extra context, film, stats, and analysis.
Around the Arc
To start, we’ll be going through some key things that stood out in the recent individual games and taking a closer look at some plays, actions, performances, stretches, and anything else that was fun or interesting.
Suns can’t miss
Jalen Williams’ cutting
Suns Can't-Miss
So, that third quarter from the Suns was shot making at its finest — they scored 39 points on 16/20 shooting. That alone is a wild quarter but what made that even more fun is the fact they went ahead and had 15 straight field goals.
Devin Booker scored the Suns’ first point to start the third quarter at 11:31. 14 field goals later, they finally missed on a Grayson Allen pull-up at 2:42. That’s almost nine minutes of non-stop buckets from the Suns. Let’s look at some of those shots:
1st clip: Booker setting a backscreen for Durant. That forces a switch with Mann and Jones Jr, but that leaves Jones Jr trailing as Booker comes off a screen from Nurkic. He curls and sees Zubac in drop at the free throw line, which gives him all the space for the pull-up
2nd: A quick catch and go from Booker with the whole side cleared against Powell. Takes him off the dribble and rises up for the tough jumper
3rd: Another Booker screen, this time for Jones to force a switch, which again leaves Powell trailing, as he flows into a PNR with Nurkic to go for a pull-up 3pt vs Zubac in another deep drop.
4th: Durant off a staggered screen into a wide-open C&S 3pt with Zubac again in a deep drop around the free throw line
5th: Booker-Nurkic PNR attacking Zubac in drop but this time, he snakes it well drawing him out a bit further and forcing Mann to have more ground to cover. That draws 2 with Booker and opens up Nurkic for the pop
Jalen’s Cutting
A small thing but that stood out in the game a few times and I just loved it from Jalen Williams — his cutting via four different ways:
A sneaky way to get behind the defense as Chet Holmgren’s drive focuses the defense entirely on him. Finds his way around the rim
Shai-Dort PNR with Dort’s roll drawing the low man to rotate. That was William’s man. He was also in the dunker spot, which made that move much quicker to get to the rim
That was just a nice, strong back cut that left his defender not realising what happened
What Do We Do With Giannis?
Giannis Antetokounmpo is having another career high with his efficiency, which is absolutely insane considering where it was last year. He has a 65.6% eFG and 65.5% TS, with an even bigger usage than last year at 34.7%. What he’s doing is just… I don’t even know anymore.
He’s shooting 83.3% at the rim with 58% of his shots there!
Best. Rim. Finisher. Of. Our. Generation.
It’s funny seeing how easy a lot of those shots look like. He can get to the rim at will in every single way possible and it really is hilarious to see the defense can’t do anything. Outside of LeBron James, I don’t think I’ve seen anyone else make that look so easy.
It’s doing offcuts from different areas. It’s in transition. It’s off the dribble. It’s in the post. There’s no option that he doesn’t feel comfortable.
Oh, he’s also shooting 45% from 14ft-3pt. He’s taking 21.5% of his shots there. He has liked that pull-up shot a lot:
I’ve watched all but one of the Bucks games and so many times, he is going for that shot quickly and confidently — he’s doing it early in semi-transition, too! He’s also making it a good rate. I wonder how long he can keep that up and if the defense will change anything in how they defend him.
On the other hand, the league is lucky that he can’t make free throws. He’s shooting 52.6% from the line, which is over 13% worse than last year. His free throw dropping over the years is concerning and odd. Since becoming an All-Star:
77.7% → 76.0% → 72.9% → 63.3% → 68.5% → 72.2% → 64.5% → 65.7% → 52.6%
This is his lowest percentage in his career and he’s taking the third most in his career per 100 possessions. If he shot at the same rate as last year, that would add almost two more points per 100.
Paolo’s Start & It’s Time For Franz To Shine
After five games to start the season, where Paolo Banchero averaged 28.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per 75 possessions on 55.2% eFG and 59.0% TS, it’s unfortunate to see him get hit with an injury. He’s likely to miss around 4-6 weeks and that can change a lot for the Magic. That’s more than a handful of games that can decide so much at the end of the year.
Even considering the team’s situation, Banchero’s season needing to go on a break is also annoying to see after improving in my areas from last year. A lot of things took a jump in the third year:
TS%: 54.6 → 59.0
eFG%: 49.7 → 55.2
2P%: 49.3 → 56.9
ATB 3P%: 34.6 → 39.3
C&S 3P%: 36.4 → 44.4
3PAr: .249 → .330
FTr: .397 → .608
Drive PF%: 12.8 → 23.0
AST%: 25.2 → 28.9
TOV%: 13.0 → 8.2
Rim frequency: 29.7 → 37.1
Rim FG%: 64.1 → 66.6
That’s a lot. Now, this is only a five-game sample, so some of the accuracy percentages may regress with a bigger sample. But there are a few things that stood out that aren’t things that can be just explained as shooting variance.
One of the main things that made his efficiency across the board go up is his increased rim frequency. He looked like he made it a mission to get to the rim more often. He’s being more aggressive — he made that very clear against the Miami Heat.
It was opening night and it was one game, but seeing the difference in how he attacked every single player on the Heat compared to last year was the difference maker to me. Last year, he kind of clamped by Haywood Highsmith on multiple occasions and that was mostly because he was looking to settle for tough shots. That same defender looked like he was 5’9 and had no chance against him.
That is shown also with his huge jump in free throw rate and foul drawing on drives. 23% of his drives end up as a foul. That is an absurd level of foul drawing.
Banchero has always been 6’10, 250 but a lot of the times with the shots he settled, it didn’t feel like he was outside of stretches. Now, he is that size every time.
An aggressive Banchero like that with improved decision making, that can create more efficient looks for himself was looking like a game changer.
One thing that I would just be cautious of is those 3pt shooting numbers. He has upped his 3-point rate, too, but a five-game sample isn’t enough to suggest any change(good or bad).
Now, with him missing time, it’s going to be on everyone else to step up. We have seen so far in his career how his on-off numbers have been awful, where the team is so much better without him(I’ve cited that plenty of times). This is the time to see if that was legit.
This is Franz Wagner’s time to shine. He has been dealing with an illness but should be back ready soon. With all the noise around Banchero, it feels like Wagner’s season has gone under the radar.
These were his first three games:
Vs Miami Heat: 23pts on 7/10 2pt & 3/6 3pt, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 stocks
Vs Brooklyn Nets: 29pts on 7/13 2pt & 3/6 3pt, 6 rebounds, 5 assists
Vs Memphis Grizzlies: 23pts on 3/6 2pt & 4/10 3pt, 7 rebounds, 3 assists
Then he’s had two games dealing with an illness that had his minutes and usage much lower. But for the season he’s still averaging 24.6 points per 75 possessions on 60.1% eFG and 63.6% TS with 26.2% usage. He’s shooting 61.1% from 2pt and 39.3% from 3pt!
Though, one thing that has changed is his scoring is more assisted:
2PT AST%: 41.9 → 63.6
3PT AST%: 78.7 → 90.9
It’s interesting to see how he’s been used a lot more off-ball and how that’s likely going to change with no Banchero for a big stretch.
Looking more closely at his 3-point shooting, a lot of it comes from taking a lot more catch-and-shoot. He’s shooting 36.4% on 4.4 3s with 34.4% of his shots being off the catch. That’s up from 29.3% on 2.9(19.0% of FGA) from last year.
He has turned himself into more of a catch and shoot guy, which definitely boosted his efficiency even further. Though this is another area where we need to be cautious with.
Shai & Edwards Pull Ups
So, both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards are taking a lot of pull up jumpers, particularly from 3pt. As of 1/11/24, they are third and fourth in pull-ups per game — Edwards is third in pull-up 3s and Shai is eighth. That’s something.
Let’s quickly look at their careers quickly.
Here’s Shai in his career:
Here’s Edwards:
Two very different examples. Let’s start with Shai.
He has always been a pretty pull-up heavy guard, even early in his career. There was a stretch in both 2021 and 2022 where he was taking more pull-up 3s than 2s. That completely flipped in the last two years, which also coincides with his All-NBA caliber seasons and scoring over 30 points per game.
Edwards is a different case. He has always been a pull-up 3-point heavy guard. In that 2022 season, he took over 5 PU-3PT compared to just under 2 PU-2PT! That was already part of his game, which has gradually been decreasing in favour of 2s last year where it was around even. What he’s doing now, though, is going to the extreme the other way. He is taking the third most pull-up 3s. That also raises an eye.
As they are two different cases, I also have different conclusions about how I feel about the increase in volume.
When it comes to Shai, I did think he should’ve upped his 3-point volume off the dribble. He was shooting 35.6% on 2.6 PU-3PT, which was around 13% of his shots, compared to shooting 51.8% on 7.4 PU-2PT, which was 37% of his shots — relative to his pull-up shooting, 74% were PU-2PT. My ideal range was to cut that a bit. Even going half and half would’ve been a lot already. Taking more 3s than 2s is going the wrong way, especially when he got cold shooting 30.8%.
Though, for his career, he has been a bit up and down with the shooting(starting from 2019):
31.8% → 31.9% → 40.9% → 27.3% → 35.6% → 35.6% → 30.8%
If that could bounce back to mid-30s and he’s cutting down that volume to around an even split with the pull-ups, that would make his game even more dangerous. Shai is in that tier of players where he is a much, much more dangerous scorer around the paint at an absurd level. That is his game where he can slither in through countless of defenders and rise up anywhere. Everywhere is his spot.
And now, you’d be adding a 35% off dribble 3pt to his arsenal, where that’s equivalent to shooting 52% from 2pt? What does a defense do at that point?
But when watching his pull-ups, I don’t have as big of an issue because it feels like he’s testing the waters. He’s looking more confident in just firing up and I think that is a thing to test out. I don’t envision him looking to make that the part of his game period, where he’ll be settling a lot.
With Edwards, it’s different because, for one, I do think there are some settling and bad shot selection with it. This isn’t new to him. Since his second year, he’s been taking over 4 PU-3PT per game each year. The only thing he’s done this year is up that volume to an absurd level, but the overall pattern and skill were already there.
But now, he’s taking 38.9% of his shots as that. That can’t happen. Here’s his frequency within 10ft vs PU-3PT:
2025: 23.3% / 38.9%
2024: 40.2% / 23.0%
2023: 44.2% / 23.8%
2022: 40.4% / 29.4%
2021: 44.5% / 20.6%
This is an issue because you’re trading shots at the rim and all those drives for off-dribble 3s at an absurd level. This is a bit different to what Shai is doing — his most frequent spot is still within 10ft.
On the other hand, he has even less space to operate in. And as noted in last week’s Around the Arc, the defense defended him by completely shutting out the paint. Some of those 3s are because of necessity… though not to that volume. Some of it, I would count as poor shot selection. But right now, he is shooting 37.1%. If a player is shooting that well, then a player might just be on a hot streak — I just wouldn’t want that to be a habit.
Overall, this will be an interesting trend as the year goes on. How much of this will continue to happen for both players? Is this their game or tweaks to it that will level out? For Shai, this could turn out to put him up a tier. For Edwards, if the shooting regresses, this might not be a good thing.
Things that Caught My Eye
Klay Thompson is still one of the best shooters, hitting 38.8% of his 3s on 16.4 3s per 100, which would be a career-high volume. He’s also shooting 60% on 5 2s per 100, which would be a career-high efficiency by a good margin(52.6% second highest in 2018)
James Harden is leading the league in assists and turnovers. Having the second-highest AST%(48.3%) in his career, but that’s followed by a career-high TOV%(21.5%)
Norman Powell has backed up his words. He’s averaging 27.8 points per 75 possessions on 62.0% TS, shooting 57.1% from 2pt and 41.3% from 3pt
The Charlotte Hornets have the FOURTH best offense!
The Brooklyn Nets have the FIFTH best offense! HOW?
The New York Knicks have the 29th-worst defense, which is quite surprising to be that bad.
The Golden State Warriors have the second-best defense. Only five games into the season, but they are one of two teams(Thunder) to have a defensive rating under 100.0
THE CHICAGO BULLS HAVE A SEVENTH BEST DEFENSE