Atlanta Hawks 2024-25 Season Preview
Atlanta Hawks 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
The Trae Young and Dejounte Murray experiment is over after only two seasons. That was rather disappointing considering what they gave up for him two seasons ago:
Danilo Gallinari
1st round pick in 2023, 2025, 2027
1st round pick swap in 2025
All of those picks for two seasons of mediocrity and two playoff wins. This was anything other than success.
Even when you look at how the team did with both Young and Murray on, where they were -2.6 in 2779 minutes with a 117.4 offensive rating. Compared to just Murray, where they were -1.1 in 2703 minutes with a 117.3 offense or just Young, where they were +2.8 in 1703 minutes with a 120.6 offense.
They were better with just one of them. And the player they got so that you’re not entirely dependent on Young, they didn’t even win his minutes.
This year was even more disappointing with Young, De’Andre Hunter, and Jalen Johnson playing 54, 56, and 57 games. That’s three of their top five scorers not even reaching 60 games. It’s going to be tough to win with such inconsistency.
But even when they all played, in 20 games, they went 9-11 with a +1.2 net in 970 minutes with a 122.1 offense. They couldn’t even be .500 with four of the top players playing. Also, surprising, a trio of Young, Murray, Johnson were -7.9 in 693 minutes with a 116.2 offense. Not a great sign.
That’s why they had the kind of season that they had. That’s why they found themselves in the play in once again, and this time they got bounced thanks to Coby White.
So, they did pull the plug. They sent Murray to the Pelicans for:
Dyson Daniels
EJ Lidell
Larry Nance Jr
Cody Zeller
1st round pick in 2025(Lakers), 2027(least favourable of Bucks or Pelicans protected top 4)
They managed to recoup some of the picks but they’re still behind. I still think that was a good enough package for Murray with what he’s done recently.
The Hawks also did hit on the lottery in the off-season. That was fortunate. They had just a 3% chance of getting it. It was surprising to see that they ended up using it, instead of pairing that with a Murray for a much better package.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Hawks:
Will trading Murray be addition by subtraction?
Are we going to see an All-NBA season from Young?
How good can Jalen Johnson be?
Should Onyeka Okongwu be a starter?
What’s Daniel’s role going to be?
What other moves can they make to push them forwards?
Do you keep all of Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, Larry Nance Jr and De’Andre Hunter?
How does Zaccharie Risacher fits in all of this?
The first question is whether they made the right decision trading away Murray. Is this going to be a case of addition by subtraction or where fit overweighs the talent?
As stated previously, the team was worse with both on than the team with one of them on. They didn’t fit as well many thought they would when the trade was made. The addition of a bigger guard that was an All-Defensive guard didn’t make a significant difference in their defense. The offense was a lot of my turn, your turn that didn’t necessarily raise the ceiling of the offense.
For the most part, I’m in the camp that is fit over talent, especially when the talent isn’t that great. The said talent that you’re sacrificing fit for needs to be a clear star.
There are ways to make two ball dominant players work. That has happen before that won championships. But in all of those cases, the player that may not fit has an overwhelming advantage in talent that it would be hard not to.
Murray wasn’t that. He’s another case of a ball dominant guard that takes a lot of mid-range shots, doesn’t have an efficient profile, doesn’t get easy shots, isn’t the best passer, and is maximised in that role. That’s where you get the value out of him(without him having to change or adapt his game). But the skills that maximise him aren’t elite and also aren’t ones that fit well alongside other stars.
Here are some stats with duos and trios that are all without Murray in the last two season:
Young + Capela: +0.4 in 436 minutes with a 119.4 ORTG
Young + Bogdanovic: +5.7 in 1182 minutes with a 121.9 ORTG
Young + Okongwu: +3.4 in 1070 minutes with a 120.0 ORTG
Young + Johnson: +4.1 in 824 minutes with a 118.9 ORTG
Young + Hunter: +0 in 529 minutes with a 122.4 ORTG
Young + Bogdanovic + Okongwu: +5.4 in 859 minutes with 121.6 ORTG
Young + Okongwu + Johnson: +5.1 in 513 minutes with a 118.9 ORTG
Young + Bogdanovic + Johnson: +9.7 in 578 minutes with a 120.9 ORTG
That is a lot of positive lineups.
In the last two seasons, out of 28 5-man lineups with at least 50 minutes, 16 were positive. Out of those 16, 11 of them included one of Murray or Young. This may end up with the Hawks getting better despite losing one of their top players.
A lot of that will come down to the type of season we’ll see from Young. He’s been one of the most underrated players in the last few seasons. He is an offensive engine that has carried this Hawks team since his second year.
It’s always funny seeing people call him a ball hog, inefficient, or selfish when he also has this impact on the team’s offense:
2024: 119.5(+3.8 better than average) ORTG on / 115.5(-0.2) off
2023: 117.9(+2.6) / 114.7(-0.6)
2022: 119.1(+6.6) / 110.7(-1.8)
2021: 120.2(+7.3) / 107.9(-5.0)
2020: 112.8(+1.6) / 98.4(-12.8)
2019: 110.9(+0.0) / 104.9(-6.0)
That’s what Young does. There are certainly limitations and holes in his game, but he can lift an offense to elite levels. It hasn’t mattered what kind of help he has, as long as it’s reasonably good enough, it can be a top 5 offense.
He has had a dip in his offensive impact, so if the Hawks want to make the playoffs, he needs to be elite. That’s a big difference in these two seasons vs what he did in the previous three.
Maybe with a different system:
Side note, do follow @dlee4three for all things Hawks because that is great content there!
But you can see how the Hawks offense has changed since Quin Snyder took over. Now, it’s continuing to build on it and maximising everyone. This is where Young has to do his part.
Young has been arguably a top 5 passer in the last five years.
He literally has been first or second in playmaking talent. That is always going to raise the hell out of the team’s floor and generate efficient offense.
But I do wonder what improvements we can see from him. Can he become more efficient without relying on the free throws? His rim finishing is awful. He has a good short mid-range game, but it’s nothing special. And beyond the paint is even worse.
Can he up his catch and shoot 3pt frequency because that is extremely low:
2024: 38.9% on 2.0(11% freq)
2023: 37.0% on 1.3(6%)
2022: 48.1% on 1.0(5%)
2021: 37.3% on 1.3(7%)
2020: 46.6% on 1.7(8%)
2019: 36.8% on 1.6(10%)
With him being an inconsistent shooter off the dribble, I’d like to see this be emphasised more.
He’s going to be 26 years old heading into his seventh season. There’s still so much more that he could improve on and that’s what will decide a lot on this season. Let’s see if he can turn some of those concerns and weaknesses to strengths.
Equally as important, it’s about some of the younger players that are still looking to potentially make jumps. We’ve seen Johnson improve in everything from last year. And I’ve seen a lot of hype around Johnson all over my timeline, even beyond just Hawks fans.
Surprisingly, he wasn’t in any of most improved player voting, despite having over 10 point jump in his scoring, assists, rebounding, better 3pt shooting, and better efficiency. Now, it’s continuing to build on that.
I also wonder what is happening with Okongwu. He’s also been one of their younger players looking to make a jump. He’s been their backup big for his career so far. His impact metrics didn’t like him at all this year:
Also, in the last two seasons, the Hawks have been better with him and Young vs with Capela, so there’s some conflicting data here. Not sure where Okongwu fits in all of this. Will he or should he get a bigger role? Should he start more? Has he shown that he should?
One thing that does separate him from Capela is that he’s a significantly better finisher at the rim and the paint — shot 74% at the rim and 45% in the short mid-range in the last two seasons, whereas Capela was at 61% and 45%.
I’m intrigued by Dyson Daniels. I enjoyed Daniels play in his rookie seasons, especially with what he was doing defensively. This is exactly the kind of defender that you’d want to fit next to Young. He’s already an impactful defender with +1.9 and +1.5 defensive EPM in his first two seasons.
This is where it’s fun watching Daniels play. And for a team that doesn’t have nowhere near a defender at that level, it’s going to help a lot.
Here’s also a good thread on his all around game:
I do wonder how much of his offense can improve to not be a negative. Can his shooting improve significantly? How is he going to be used?
What about the rest of the team? There’s still Bogdanovic, Capela, and Hunter. All solid players, but this collection of players is also a reason why the Hawks have been the way they are.
I do like Bogdanovic a lot. The Hawks have been +3.0 in 7069 minutes with him on since coming to Atlanta with a 118.9 ORTG and that drops to -1.8 without him in 8300 minutes with a 114.7 ORTG. Even without Young in those four years, he averaged 20.9 points per 75 possession on 55% eFG and 57% TS with a 23% usage — the team is also +3 with him.
There’s Hunter, who I don’t know how to feel about. He again was missing a lot of time and his stats across the board are all the same in each season. There’s also this:
That is not a good sign for someone heading into his sixth season. It does feel like there’s a lot of the idea of what Hunter is, it’s better than what he is. Will he have a bounce back year?
This applies to Capela too. I don’t know what this trio really gives the Hawk anymore. It’s the same trio that has got them these results and not even good results.
That’s why I wonder if there will be any moves made at the deadline. Will they make drastic changes? I think those are the changes that this team needs. It needs an overhaul of the roster, rather than a push for one star. Give Young a whole a different team that may fit a different system with him.
Finally, what does Risacher looks like in his rookie season in this context? This isn’t a team that was tanking that got a first overall pick. This was a team looking to make the playoffs and got lucky with the draft lottery.
Now, they’re adding the first overall pick to that team. How much can he help them win now? Is he going to be ready to be impactful right from the get go? Will they prioritise his development over winning? You don’t see many top 3-5 picks on “good” teams in their rookie seasons. That does change things a lot for them.
Predictions
40-46 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): A play in team
Ceiling(best case scenario): 6th seed
So, this should be a more fun season for the Hawks. It’s certainly going to be different to what it’s been in the last two seasons. But I wonder how much of that is simply going back to their pre-Murray self that’s marginally better.
They do have Young that’s better. Johnson can be a difference maker. Snyder can maximise this team differently.
But even with all of that considered, this is a team that has still a lot to improve on. They need to make so many more jumps in the right direction to be competitive.
I do think they got better, but it’s just the question of how much better and how much does that even matter?
Was this all to just get assets back from getting Murray and to get good enough to compete for a play in again? I don’t think they’re good enough for the top 6 seed, even with all things going their way.
Their highest ceiling to me is making the seventh seed and making that series competitive with their offense.
Overall, they did a good job doing something that pushes them upwards, but it still feels like they’re in the same spot. The biggest question will be how will they go about their deadline if they’re not winning. Will this finally be the year where they sell on everything?
We haven’t even considered potential trades for Young, though, I do think that’s unlikely because why would they explode their core like that before doing other moves first. Explode everything else before trading away one of the best offensive players.
Right now, I have them around 41 wins with them being safely in the hunt for the play in — whether it’s 10th or 7th, it’s going to be there.