Chicago Bulls 2024-25 Season Preview

Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!

Season & Off-Season Recap

Another mid-year for the Chicago Bulls. I tweeted this earlier in the season:

They are literally the definition of mid. Average. Mediocre. That has been their season in the last two years. They ended their seasons in the same way — a loss to the Miami Heat in the second play.

They had a decent collection of talent, including DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, Coby White, and Nikola Vucevic. But with some health issues and simply not being good enough, all of that resulted in two straight playoff misses.

What’s worse is they were losing their minutes pretty significantly when three of their top players were playing. With DeRozan, Vucevic, and White on, they were -4.8 with a 114.2 offensive rating. Out of nine players that had at least 1000 minutes played, only Jevon Carter was at least +1.0 — add Caruso and Drummond as the only positive players.

Everything about their season just felt worse. At least last year, they had the fifth-best defense that was helping them win, but that dropped all the way to 22nd this year.

That’s honestly not even average anymore. They were bad, but also not bad enough or filled with young talent to warrant going to that direction, until now.

This was way too late. They ended up not getting the best kind of return that they could’ve got. They also still have two of the veterans that are likely tougher to move.

Once upon a time, there were reports that Caruso was going for quite a lot. They ended up getting Josh Giddey for him, with no picks from Sam Presti. That is a young player who fits the timeline, but with no other assets, it feels pretty underwhelming.

They also traded DeRozan! But it’s only for Chris Duarte, who’s 27 heading into his fourth season. They did get picks, though! But it’s only two seconds.

So, their off-season included moving on from two of their veterans for minimal assets, drafting Matas Buzelis with the 11th overall pick, signing Jalen Smith, bringing back Torrey Craig, and extending Patrick Williams. There’s still no answer for what are they going to do with Vucevic and LaVine!

Key Questions & Storylines

So, what’s in store for the Bulls:

• Can they move on from both LaVine and Vucevic or will they be stuck with them?

• Will they be bad enough to keep their pick, especially if the vets stay?

• What is Giddey going to look like in a completely new environment with different expectations?

• Is White’s jump here to stay and where can it go next?

• Will Williams play up to his extension?

• Buzelis’ rookie season!

• Will Lonzo Ball finally play some basketball?

The first order of business is figuring what happens with both Vucevic and LaVine. They need to move on from them. All of this is already a year too late. There was no need for that extension to Vucevic either. The max to LaVine also backfired. At this point, they have to cut their losses.

I don’t see a single benefit to bringing them back and having them play. Even if they have a bounce-back season and increase their trade value, they will be making their team better. The Bulls can’t afford that! They owe a pick to the Spurs, and that will go to them if it’s not in the top 10.

The Bulls even without DeRozan on the court were just -1.1. That’s likely not going to be good enough to be one of the worst teams in the league. Assuming everyone plays and the vets have an average season, is that going to be worse than the Wizards, Pistons, Hornets, Blazers, Spurs, Raptors, Nets, or Jazz? That’s their competition to be bad. Six of these teams won 25 or fewer games. I can see this Bulls team win around 30 and at that point every loss matters.

So, the number one thing to watch for is whether they can find anyone to find suitors for both Vucevic and LaVine. Vucevic should be the easier to move considering he’s making 20 million this year and will be expiring at 21 million in the 2025-26 season. LaVine, on the other hand, is owed 43, 46, and has a 49 million player option in 2026-27.

Whatever happens with those two, everything else is about the young players, development, and focusing on the long-term.

The first question is what’s Giddey going to look like?

I talked about the trade when it happened and what Giddey may be with the Bulls here! He is just a 21-year-old who has improved in each season. For one, his efficiency has been going up each season from 48% → 53% → 55%. This applies to both his 2pt and 3pt. He can get to the rim, he’s a great passer, and his impact metrics do show steady growth. There was even a 15-game stretch where he averaged 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists on 59% eFG and 60% TS.

I wouldn’t say that the Thunder’s decision to move on from him is about him entirely. With them emerging as a title contender, Giddey didn’t fit that timeline given where he is right now and what he provides. There was a much bigger need for someone like Caruso instead. That doesn’t mean that Giddey has a lower ceiling or is a bad player.

The season will be seeing how he looks on a new team under a different system with no expectations. There can be an emphasis on development and trying to figure out what the best role is. He can have the ball more in his hands.

Though, that leads us to the next question regarding White. The first is how that backcourt works. Can it be something? Can it be productive? Is it just going to be my turn, your turn? On the bright side, both players have played with better players that needed the ball and it worked to an extent.

White also had himself a season that got him second place in the most improved player. He doubled his attempts. He remained just as efficient with more usage, with 57% TS on 23% usage. He upped his AST% from 16% → 21%. He remained a 37% 3-point shooter on over 9 3s per 100. A lot of the jump does look like it was solely because of more opportunities, touches, and shots, but that in itself is a good thing.

He did have a few jumps in his play types. He scored 0.89 points per poss with 49% eFG on 1.7 PNR poss last year and that jumped to 0.93 with 51% on 6.1. That’s a significant jump in volume, his frequency also almost doubled. One encouraging stat is the shooting foul with it jumping from 6% to 10%.

His 3-point shooting is encouraging. He shot 36% on over 5 catch and shoot 3s. But he also shot 40% on almost 2 pull-ups. That was a significant jump in off-dribble shooting compared to last year at 27% on just under 1 attempt.

Now, he has more opportunities. He got more shots. He did a good job already at maintaining that efficiency, improving as an off-dribble shooter, starting to draw more fouls, and passing the ball more, but can he continue with the defense adjusting to him?

Is his shooting there to stay because that will make a significant difference? In his first 40 games, had a 56% eFG and 59% TS, but that dropped to 51% and 55% in his last 39 games. He shot 41% from 3pt early on then cooled down to 34%. His impact will be relying on his 3-point shooting.

Can he change that? He’s not a great finisher. He doesn’t get to the rim at an elite level. He doesn’t finish around the mid-range. If he’s not shooting, he’s doing what?

Will Williams stay healthy enough period? He played 71 games in his rookie season but followed that with 17 in his second year. He played all 82 games the season after but followed that with 43 this year.

Outside of the games played, will he live up to the contract he got?

He’s a career 41% 3pt shooter but it’s on extremely low volume that it doesn’t make a significant difference. He’s not one to be a passer either, with his career-high 8% AST, to go along with 13% TOV. Even more worrying, he had his career low 2pt%, which also coincided with a career-low TS%. I’d say a lot has to do with his 55% at the rim. What’s that about?

There are a lot of question marks and a lot of “he needs to improve this and that”. He’s going into his fifth year now but has seemed to be trending downward. Is this going to be the bounce-back year for him?

WILL WE FINALLY SEE LONZO PLAY!

There have been reports that he may play at some point during the season, but he’s such an unknown after missing over 2 seasons, that I don’t know that is going to look like.

And there’s Buzelis, a 6ft 9 forward. Sam Vecenie talked about his two swing areas that will play a big part in his upside and whether he plays significant minutes. His frame and shooting. He mentioned that he doesn’t think he’ll play many minutes because of it, but with the Bulls needing to tank at some point, that may not be the worst idea.

Predictions

• 25-30 wins

• Floor(worst case scenario): Bad but not worse than the Wizards

• Ceiling(best case scenario): Play-in but this would actually be the worst possible scenario

I do see both Vucevic and LaVine being traded at some point. I just wonder what would be the reason for keeping them unless there’s really no market for them and they will have to attach significant assets to them. But at this point, I also see them just taking whatever they can, similar to Giddey. If there’s a young prospect, they might just take it.

If and when that happens, this is all about development and hopefully, losing. They need to get that top-10 pick otherwise, they will be in such a worse place in this rebuild. To lose out on a stacked draft because you’re too good with this roster, that’s a fireable offense to me in the front office.

I’m still a believer in Giddey. I do think a different setting, different coach, different teammates, and different expectations will help him. He did look much better in FIBA! I can see maybe a most improved player run if things fall right.

With White, I do wonder how much of his success is just him getting more opportunities. Now, I don’t say this is a bad thing either. He’s showing that he’s clearly a capable ball handler who can run more pick and rolls, shoot the ball well, and create for others. But now, it’s all about building on that. Does he have the skills elsewhere to continue to up the level of that? Right now, it looks to be very 3-point shooting dependent.

Overall, this team is going to be bad. Hell, even if they continue to play Vucevic, they’re going to be horrid defensively. Caruso had a big impact on their defense with their defense being 5.6 worse without him. That was 5.7 worse in 2023, and 8.6 worse in 2022.

There’s also a fun stat where it’s Vucevic without Caruso! They had a 121.9 defensive rating in 1199 minutes!

Because of that and I don’t see their offense improving to the point where it’s better than what they had with DeRozan, I can see them flirt around 30 wins and drop a lot more if they embrace a full on tank at the end.