Cleveland Cavaliers 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
This was a rather disappointing season for the Cleveland Cavaliers considering everything. A lot of it had to do with unfortunate circumstances, which involved a bunch of guys missing time.
This was their top player’s games played:
Donovan Mitchell: 55 games
Darius Garland: 57
Jarrett Allen: 77
Evan Mobley: 50
When it’s like that, the season is going to feel frustrating, disappointing, and annoying to watch knowing that they could be better if they were healthy.
That four only appeared in 28(!) games. They went 18-10 and had a +2.8 net with a 116.5 offense. Their individual stats were solid in those games. But even with all four on, they were just +2.6 with a 115.4 offense.
That’s also where the disappointment comes in. They won when they played together period, but they weren’t much better when all were on the court. You have all your four best players on the court and you barely have a positive net with an average offense? That’s a concern. Their net rating jumped to +5.9 with a 118.3 offense with only two of them on.
So, a lot of their season was guys coming in and out of the lineups. Never getting any continuity or the time to fix whatever issues they may have.
They still ended up as the fourth seed, though! But their playoff aspirations weren’t going to be high considering their injury luck did follow them there. Allen only played four games and Mitchell missed two games against the Celtics.
What else they were meant to do? They definitely underachieved and this could’ve been entirely different if they stayed healthy, but they weren’t put in the best position to even have a chance.
For the off-season, there were going to be so many rumors and all of the discussions about Mitchell potentially leaving. That was shut down with him signing that extension. That was the best thing that could’ve happened for the Cavaliers. They got the commitment from him and have pushed any decision of potentially losing him for later.
On top of his extension, they extended Mobley and Allen. They brought back Isaac Okoro.
The one significant change was firing J.B. Bickerstaff and hiring Kenny Atkinson. A change of coach is sometimes needed. That’s not to say one coach is bad. Sometimes a change of philosophy and approach is exactly what a team needs to reach the next gear.
This is a team running it back with the same players but hoping that they can make it work the third time around with a different coach.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Cavaliers:
Can the best players finally fit together?
Does the double big lineup work?
What’s Mobley’s potential jump offensively? Can he survive being the 5 for the most part?
Can Mitchell reach the top 10 level?
What’s the deal with Garland?
Can their offense improve without sacrificing defense?
Will they make their wing position work with what they have
What are the goals for this build? Should they go more all-in?
This is going to be year three of this build. Can they finally work together? Can everyone work well alongside one another?
There’s both Garland and Mitchell finding ways to be more effective together. There are two guards that are more effective with the ball in their hands, with Mitchell being the one that should warrant more touches.
But there are also the bigs issues with Mobley and Allen. That works defensively. That has been a big reason why they’ve been so good on that end and need to have them together to make up for their guard defense.
Then, there’s how those groups work together.
With both Garland and Mitchell on:
+4.0 with a 116.3 offense in 750 minutes
Mitchell averaged 24.9 points per 75 on 53.3% eFG and 59.0% TS with 28.1% usage and 5.0 assists
Garland averaged 17.6 on 52.5% eFG and 55.6% TS with 22.4% usage and 6.7 assists.
With Garland off, Mitchell on:
+8.8 with a 118.4 offense in 1192 minutes
Mitchell averaged 29.0 points on 55.2% eFG and 58.9% TS with 32.1% usage and 6.9 assists
With Mitchell off, Garland on:
-0.1 with a 115.4 offense in 1151 minutes
Garland averaged 21.9 points on 52.3% eFG and 55.6% TS with 27.6% usage and 7.7 assists
For the season, both guards are around the same when it comes to touches. Garland led the team with 81.4 per 36 minutes and Mitchell was right there next to him at 80.6. Garland also leads the team with a time of possession at 6.6, an average seconds per touch at 5.26, and average dribble with 5.12.
Because of health issues, we also saw them play without another for a decent stretch.
In 19 games(14-5) with Mitchell playing and Garland not, the team was +10.3 with a 118.3 offense(also worth noting that Mobley didn’t play a lot either). Mitchell averaged 30 points per 75 on 56.4% eFG and 60.1% TS with 32.8% usage and 7.2 assists.
15 of those games came in the December-January stretch where the Cavaliers went 12-3. Mitchell dominated the ball with 88.9 touches and 7.3 times of possession. He was the engine of the offense(again worth noting that Mobley only played one game too, so that’s another factor).
Looking at Garland without Mitchell. In 21 games(9-12), the Cavaliers were -2.2 with a 115.5 offense with Garland on. Garland averaged 21.9 points per 75 on 53.1% eFG and 55.8% TS with 27.4% usage and 7.6 assists. In the 15-game stretch(two were with Mitchell) in March, Garland also dominated the ball with 89.5 touches per 36 and 7.5 times of poss.
There are a couple of things here. This team worked at its best with Mitchell dominating the ball. That’s where their offense worked and thrived. That also happened with Mobley missing time too. Whenever Mitchell missed time, Garland was put in the same position, but the team wasn’t as good.
So, how will they go about that this year? Who’s taking the backseat? Do you maximize Mitchell by going more with him dominating the ball? Is going through the trouble of trying to make the fit work taking away what they could have if they prioritized one of the options?
Why isn’t the offense as good as Garland? Is that because of the rest of the team or is that on him and some of his limitations? What even is his ceiling as a player? He’s a small guard who relies on shooting, and is a great passer, but isn’t entirely efficient inside the arc or draws a lot of fouls. That does hinder your ceiling. He’s going to be 25 heading into his sixth season. There needs to be a conversation about him going forward.
Related to that is it time to explore trading him? Mitchell isn’t some old player that the window with him is going to be short. There’s nothing that says that can’t accelerate some of this by getting whatever they can for Garland that will be a better fit. Getting Mitchell changed things, especially for the vision with Garland.
Because on that point, Mitchell is a top-20 player. He is only 28 years old. He’s had some rough playoff series recently, but he’s still one of the best guards in the league. He has been improving, both as a scorer and a passer. But what even is the ceiling with him? We saw what he was doing in Utah. How much better can he be?
The growth is steady. He was 10th in EPM this year. But can he take more leaps, particularly as a lead guard and a passer? They did give him the maximum extension, so there is that level of expectation. If he does, that does make certain decisions easier to make.
There’s also the bigs. That is equally as important. Two very important players for them at different stages in their careers impact the team in two different ways. But there is a question of fit and that opens up the possibility of breaking them up.
In 2024:
Allen on, Mobley off: +6.1 in 1675 minutes with 119.0 ORTG & 112.9 DRTG
Mobley on, Allen off: +0.4 in 765 minutes with 113.3 ORTG & 112.9 DRTG
Both on: +1.5 in 768 minutes with 114.8 ORTG & 113.3 DRTG
Looking at past seasons. In 2023:
Allen on, Mobley off: +7.5 in 803 minutes with 117.0 ORTG & 109.5 DRTG
Mobley on, Allen off: +4.6 in 1298 minutes with 115.4 ORTG & 110.8 DRTG
Both on: +8.1 in 1418 minutes with 119.8 ORTG & 111.7 DRTG
In 2022:
Allen on, Mobley off: +4.6 in 730 minutes with 115.8 ORTG & 111.2 DRTG
Mobley on, Allen off: +0.1 in 1251 minutes with 111.9 ORTG & 111.8 DRTG
Both on: +4.1 in 1080 minutes with 110.6 ORTG & 106.5 DRTG
This year was the most disappointing season because they didn’t get the chance to play together as much. Their time was almost cut in half from last year.
One thing that has popped up each year is the fact their offense has been better with Allen on and not Mobley. That has become even more apparent this year with Mitchell too — Mitchell with just Allen had a 120.0 ORTG and was +10.9 in 1445 minutes.
Allen is a solid big. He does his job well. He’s efficient. He’s a great defender. There’s little that you can pick out as significant flaws.
Mobley on the other hand is only 23 years old and was already an All-Defensive player and has made jumps offensively in each year. His 2pt scoring became more efficient jumping from 54% to 59% to 60%. He has improved his efficiency significantly since his rookie season. There’s a lot more potential there.
He also had a much better playoff series compared to what he did against the Knicks last year. He almost shot 60% in the playoffs! And the way he did it was looking great.
What’s the next step for him offensively? Is it a step as a scorer? A spacer? Or maybe being used more as a passer?
A lot also depends on him being able to manage the load as the sole big.
So, does another potential jump from him open up the possibility of moving Allen? On the other hand, last year they were dominant with those two on.
But with how they handled the off-season by giving them all extensions, I wouldn’t be surprised if the goal is to see all of this through. There’s already a sample of them being great as the whole four core.
In their first year, they were +8.9 in 871 minutes with a 121.7 ORTG and 112.8 DRTG. They were dominant on both ends of the floor. This year, that dropped to +2.6 in 392 minutes with 115.4 ORTG and 112.8 DRTG.
Is there a way to go back to that? Or are there way too many changes needed to look to maximize each player on both ends of the floor? It does feel like whatever route they go to, something will have to sacrifice quite a bit. It’s now figuring out what should be the priority.
They were seventh on offense in 2023 but that did drop to 18th this year. There is at least evidence that it can work.
There’s still the rest of the team. I still wonder about their wing position. They have Max Strus, Isaac Okoro(who they extended), Dean Wade, Georges Niang, Sam Merrill, and Caris LeVert. I’m not entirely sure who I feel most comfortable with. There are plusses and negatives for each one. That was one of the main questions for them last year and it’s still left unanswered. Are there any potential moves to work that out? Maybe reshuffling some of those players?
Finally, what even are the goals for this team in the long term? They made the move for Mitchell two years ago. But is that it? Is that the only win-now move that they want to make? Is the plan just letting the young players look to develop?
Because there are moves to accelerate this build and go more all in. What was the point in trading for Mitchell, who could reach a top 10 caliber player in the playoffs, if the rest of the team isn’t there yet to compete?
It feels a lot like they don’t want to push their chips in that direction yet. It’s playing the two potential timelines.
There should be a discussion whether it’s building around a still young core that could be a good playoff team or building more around Mitchell now and making his life easier.
They did bring in Atkinson, which could make a big difference. There are fit issues, so there is a world in which his approach and philosophy can solve that. Bickerstaff did a solid job in these two years making the Cavaliers this good, but now it may be Atkinson’s time to get them over the top.
Predictions
48-55 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 5th seed with a bunch of questions
Ceiling(best case scenario): Top 2 seed with the core being as dominant as ever
This team will be good. Even with all of the issues, concerns, and questions that they may have, they have a pretty high floor. They’re going to be good defensively and have enough offensive talent to carry them through the regular season. They showed that in 2023!
The regular season shouldn’t be an issue then.
The more important thing to look at is how it will all look. With Atkinson coming in, I do expect significant changes in how the offense works. We saw how they’re maximized with Mitchell taking the reigns and how good that looked. Because of the potential of that, I’m all in on Mitchell. He’s become quite underrated in these two seasons.
I’m expecting more of that. They have a clear All-NBA talent and they should play more through him. There will be some other way to make it work with Garland. One thing that has stood out is they already made a change this year — they averaged 25.1 minutes together in 2023 and that dropped to 20.8 this year.
I do like what we could see from Mobley. A random tidbit that I saw, though I’m not sure how much Atkinson was part of it. Atkinson took over the Nets in 2017… which is the year that Brook Lopez became a legit 3-point threat. He was also the coach of Allen for his first three seasons which saw him develop in a quality starting big on both ends. All of this could be a factor in Mobley having a career year on offense.
Finally, with how they handled the off-season and the change in the coach, I’m not expecting any drastic moves. Barring some major complications, this core will see this whole year through. I do see a bounce from them all too. The only change that I could see is regarding that wing position.
Overall, this should be a very important season for them. It’s year three of the build. They know what questions they have. They have a new coach. There’s a lot more expectations now. They will be good, but good won’t be good enough for them, so if things aren’t going well, this could be the year before drastic changes.