Detroit Pistons 2024-25 Season Preview

Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!

Season & Off-Season Recap

So, the Detroit Pistons started 2-1 and that was probably the highlight of the season until around mid January. After winning two in a row, they went on to lose not one, not two, not three… not 26, not 27, but 28 in a row.

The previous season was just as bad, but there were valid reasons for that. Who could’ve predicted that Cade Cunningham was going to play only 12 games? Who could’ve predicted that the three top guys in games played would be Killian Hayes and two rookies in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren? They were going to be bad.

This year, they got their best player back… but everyone else was in and out too. Bojan Bogdanovic barely played. Isaiah Stewart played 46 games. Duren missed 20 games. Players were getting traded or cut(it was the end of the Hayes era). 17 different players played at least 20 games. 24 played at least 10.

There was the whole thing with Monty Williams. His decision-making, his rotations, and just the whole vibe felt off whenever I looked at Pistons’ Twitter. Ivey didn’t make a significant jump, with him playing less, coming off the bench for 16 games, and dropping in other statistics.

There were some positives. This was Ausar Thompson’s rookie season and that was solid, particularly on the defensive end. We finally saw Cunningham play basketball for more than 12 games! There were considerable improvements there across the board, especially compared to his previous seasons.

Outside of that, this was a typical Pistons season. Fortunately, that may look to change. They made plenty of moves during the off-season, looking to get better. They made changes everywhere, whether it was right at the top in the front office, coaching, and players, they clearly had a vision to turn things upside down. They brought in Trajan Langdon as the president of basketball operations and hired J.B. Bickerstaff. A new vision, new perspective, and new philosophy may be enough to jump-start something in Detroit.

When it comes to the player changes, they focused on getting better by simply getting players that are at least NBA quality players. That alone was a huge step in the right direction. They plenty of players getting actual minutes that played 20+ games that wouldn’t be in the rotation on most of the teams! Upgrading from that to players that are starter caliber players is a game-changing improvement.

They added Tobias Harris, Paul Reed, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr, as well as drafting Ron Holland with the 5th overall pick. Those are two players that were legit starting-level players on good teams and two solid enough backups — remember they may not be as elite or helpful for great teams looking to be better but compared to players like Jarden Rhoden, Stanley Umude, Tosan Evbuomwan, and Hayes, it’s a big gap.

Another significant move was locking up Cunningham to a 5-year 224 million rookie extension that could jump to 269 million. That was probably to be expected. Their current plans do depend a lot on Cunningham.

So, this was a pretty big win for them in the off-season. The plan was clearly to establish some winning culture and right now, that is looking to be on track. They brought in veterans(they are needed on young teams). There’s more shooting to give Cunningham more spacing. Bickerstaff did a solid job lifting the Cavaliers — the Cavaliers improved each time in his first three seasons with them.

Key Questions & Storylines!

• Will the veterans help this team win some games? Will they raise the floor of this team?

• Ron Holland’s rookie season

• What can we see from Cunningham after his extension? Will he take a leap? Make an All-Star team?

• Is this a make-or-break season for Ivey and Duren?

• Can Thompson improve his offense enough?

The number one thing to watch for is whether and how big of a leap can Cunningham take. Everything revolves around that. There are plenty of other questions that will matter for this season and beyond, but everything will start with Cunningham’s growth.

It’s always going to be tough to judge his game when he’s in one of the worst situations out of any young player in the league. The team just is bad on both ends of the floor and he hasn’t been surrounded by NBA level players. At the same time, it hasn’t been all bad either considering those circumstances. And if we look at a whole bunch of stats from his rookie season(because he only played 12 games in his second season), it has been trending upwards.

Here are some overall talent metrics compared to on-ball players:

He’s already grading out pretty well across the board, with improvements from previous seasons. A lot of it has to do with his one-on-one and mid-range scoring.

With the rim being a tough place to get to or finish at, he had to make the most of it elsewhere, and he did a good job doing so. In his first two seasons, he shot around 37% from the short mid-range — that jumped to 43% this year. He shot 42% in his rookie in the long mid-range — that jumped to 47% this year. That pull-up jumper is a real weapon for him, though the volume will have to change if he wants to be a more efficient player, as around 28% of his shots are pull-up 2s.

That’s one of the issues. He has been still fairly below league average in any efficiency or accuracy metrics — 2pt%, 3pt%, eFG%, and TS%. He had his career-best 54.6% TS. Obviously, the team’s context matters but it’s still an issue beyond that. 71% of his shots are 2s where it’s primarily jump shots and pull-ups that are good in a vacuum, but not good enough to be efficient.

One encouraging point was all of his passing metrics:

That’s definitely a good sign, and it is things that should point towards better things once he’s in a better environment and with better players.

This is all where it stands for the Pistons. It all depends if there is the potential that he will emerge as a clear All-Star level player and how quickly he can reach that potential. That will make decisions a lot easier for the Pistons now and in the future if that does happen. If it doesn’t or there are more concerns and questions, that will open a lot more questions about how they should move forward. He is now going into his fourth year with the extension already inked, so there needs to be legitimate signs for it now. That does also mean the Pistons will have at least try to make his life easier to see.

Related to all of this is the other “core” young players who are also up for an extension next summer in Ivey and Duren. There are so many paths that this could take.

They both could take those leaps and that would be the best-case scenario. They’d finally have some core of young players that could provide help for Cunningham and make his path to take a leap easier too. They could have a handful of players that are locked up and potentially grow to the point where they finally get into the postseason.

That would be the ideal scenario.

But there’s a world where the jumps either aren’t that clear or simply don’t happen. So, then what do you do? Do you take a gamble and hope they will break out eventually and improve areas they need to improve in? At the same time, you might be risking the value dropping if they do that. Do you trade away a year too soon or a year too late? Do you even look to extend them right away?

Even in an ideal situation, what do those improvements look like? Are Ivey’s improvements enough to play him next to Cunningham? Or will he just be a secondary ball handler off the bench?

With both Cunningham and Ivey, they are -5.9 in 1235 minutes with a 113.0 ORTG. Ivey is scoring 16.8 points per 75 on 48.2% eFG and 53.0% TS with 21.8% usage. Take Cunningham off, the scoring jumps to 22.2 on 50.2% and 54.0% with 28.7%. Similar efficiency but simply more usage.

I’m still an Ivey believer.

Outside of those two, they still have plenty of younger players to keep an eye on their growth — Holland’s rookie season, Ausar Thompson’s improvement on offense, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser. That’s seven players that are still young by age or experience and all need to develop. That’s why this is another season with growth and development needing to be prioritized.

One point on that, Thompson had a wild +2.5 defensive EPM. His defensive growth should definitely be one of the main things to look for because that could make a significant difference. But it will be his offensive impact that will be the difference maker.

But they do have a bunch of veterans that should come in and be impactful enough on this team to make life easier and raise the floor. All of them are shooters some way or the other.

Hardaway Jr has shot 37.5% on over 12 3s per 100 in the last five seasons. Harris shot 37.3% on 5.9. Beasley shot 38.4% on over 13. That’s three guys shooting over 37%, with two on high volume — you also had Simone Fontecchio shooting 40.0% on nearly 10. That’s exactly what the team needs.

With Harris, there’s also the potential of getting something more than just being there to take 3s(funny enough, his highest volume 3pt season came in his last season with the Pistons at 40.9% on nearly 9 3s). He can create for himself to an extent. He can play an efficient brand of basketball — he has a 57.8% TS over the last five seasons.

Over the last three seasons, with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and James Harden off, he scored 23.1 points per 75 on 53.3% eFG and 56.3% TS — shooting 52% from 2pt and 38% from 3pt. Now, it’s not something to rely on or have that translates to much meaningful impact, but can the Pistons be beggars at this point?

Anything to raise their floor and help Cunningham should be good enough.

Predictions

• 25-30 wins

• Still likely outside of the play-in but it will be fighting for that 10th spot

• They will trade one of Ivey and Duren

• Harris will have a surprisingly good season and help this team a lot

• Floor(worst case scenario): Bottom of the East

• Ceiling(best case scenario): Securing the 10th seed

This might finally be the year — the year the Pistons make a push for the play-in! Actually, Agh. That would mean around a 20-win game increase. They need to double their wins at least for that to happen. So, the question can I actually see that happening?

I might be talking myself out of it. I thought they were set to make a jump last year too. On the other hand, this team does have way more NBA talent and have more impactful veterans, and have more potential with their young players. There’s also the whole East, which is quite bad at the bottom, and they might have a chance by default — as long as they’re not one of the worst teams ever.

Let’s go with that. I predict they will win around 30 games and will be knocking for that last play-in spot.