Early Predictions on Who's Making the Finals in the West

A discussion on the teams that are most likely to get out of the West

I was listening to the Lowe Post and reading one of his articles on the Denver Nuggets. The conversation was around who’s coming out of the West because that feels like the one that’s the most wide open question. There are many realistic options and I don’t know if there is one clear over the other. All teams in the upper tier have a strong case to make the finals but it would just depend on the right matchups and health.

That’s why in the West, I could see four teams with a strong chance of making it. There are different levels of comfort for each team, but overall, all four are in that tier and are clearly ahead of the field.

They didn’t talk about the Celtics and I won’t be doing so here, but in the next day or two, that will be also out!

So, let’s answer who’s coming out of the West!

Dallas Mavericks

We should start with the team that made the finals. They were a surprise team, but now that’s no longer the case. At the start of the year, ESPN had them projected to be ninth in the West with 41.4 wins. They also had all of the pressure to be better this year after missing the playoffs last year, and now they have the pressure to continue to build on this.

There are teams that were these surprise teams that go on a deep run and make the finals, but then never really have a chance to go back. A team’s window can easily close as quickly as it opened.

But the Mavericks have a top five player in the league in Luka Doncic. That alone puts them in the conversation. In the playoffs, the Mavericks had a +4.6 net rating with a 115.7 ORTG with Doncic on. Add Kyrie Irving to that, and it jumps to +8.7 with 120.0 ORTG. Add Dereck Lively II and that jumps to +17.2 with 123.7 ORTG. They were winning quite convincingly when they had those three on the court together.

This wasn’t a bad team for the whole year either. They did end up having 50 wins. They had the 8th-best offense and 17th-best defense for the year, per Cleaning the Glass.

Since the PJ Washington trade, they also had the 6th best net rating with +5.8, where they had the 6th best offense and 7th best defense. With Doncic, Irving, and Washington, they had a +11.5 net rating with a 120.0 ORTG. They were clearly a good team as the season went on and even better once they made that trade.

And they arguably got better in the off-season with the additions of Spencer Dinwiddie, Quentin Grimes, Naji Marshall, and Klay Thompson. All four should add something to the team. With the potential improvements in Lively, Doncic being Doncic, Irving still being an elite player, and all of the additions rounding up the team, there is a strong case that they can get back to the finals.

I think with the Mavericks, matchups will determine a lot of how far they go. That would be more important than another opponent. I wonder how they’d look in a series against the Nuggets had they won.

Another question is the defense. Can that be better(particularly from Doncic)? They did a great job throughout the playoffs, but the matchups worked in their favour to allow that kind of defense to work. Both Daniel Gafford and Lively did a hell of job executing the scheme that forced them to defend the rim and the paint like no one else. But then, against a worse matchup with the Celtics, that defense was exposed(and that defense, I mean Doncic).

Though, just thinking about it now, I think I’m talking myself into believing more in the Mavericks. It all comes down to the defense. They did show promise after the Washington trade and they did a great job in the playoffs. Now, it’s just the matter of continuing to be that good defensively or making moves to solidify it. Offensively, they shouldn’t have any issues, as long as both Irving and Doncic play to their standard.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Let’s now go to the conference finalist. They’re bringing back essentially the same team. They’ve had a few departures with Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, and Jordan McLaughlin. They also added Joe Ingles and drafted Rob Dillingham. But that’s for the most part, the same team.

They definitely belong in this tier. There wasn’t anything that can come across as flukey or surprising. They were a good team. They were 3rd in net rating with the league’s best defense for the whole year — their defense was also 2.6 better than the Magic in second place, which would be the same difference as third place and 13th.

In the playoffs, they were dominating with their three best players too. They had a +9.3 net with a 121.9 ORTG and 112.6 DRTG. They took care of the Suns easily and took down the defending champions, even when they were down 20 points in the third on the road.

But there were and are some concerns still. One of them was how they were losing without Rudy Gobert on the court. No matter how goofy he looks, how annoying he may be, or how just the vibe may be off, Gobert is a valuable player and the Wolves need him.

In the regular season, out of the top three, he had the highest on court rating. He also had the highest on/off rating. That was even worse in the playoffs. They were over 16 points better with him than off — they were +9.6 with him and -7.4 without him. That’s an issue that will have to be addressed. There is a concern with how good they can be with either Towns or Reid as their big(or both).

Their chances also bank a lot on Edwards’ growth. That’s really it. That’s what will determine if they’re able to get to the finals or not. They’re a good enough team to make any series tough. They can beat anyone and make deep playoff runs, but ultimately, their ceiling will depend on Edwards taking a leap offensively.

That leap means becoming a better shooter both as a 3-point shooter and on pull-ups. Adding a counter and a shot he’s comfortable within the paint(because he hasn’t been able to score well outside of the rim). His passing and playmaking needs to take a leap.

If that leap isn’t there, they’ll still be in that tier. That won’t change. They’ll clearly have a chance at making the finals, it just won’t be as easy and their margin of error won’t be as big.

Denver Nuggets

Lowe mentioned in the article, “Why isn’t it Denver again? As long as the world’s best player is healthy, be wary of discounting the Nuggets”. I agree with that.

Yes, the Nuggets have had a bad off-season losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but they still have Nikola Jokic. Having the best player in the world gives you the luxury of being constantly in the mix. That will always be the best cheat code that you could have.

Just to see how big of a luxury, this is the Nuggets net rating with Jokic on and his on/off:

• 2024: +12.6 & +23.7

• 2023: +13.2 & +24.8

• 2022: +9.0 & +19.5

• 2021: +7.2 & +6.1

These last three seasons are just ridiculous. As valuable as Pope was, it’s not that big of a loss when you still have that guy. But Jokic isn’t the worry here. That shouldn’t even be a conversation when it comes to the Nuggets chances. We know what we’re getting from Jokic — I know they lost, but I think back to that three-game stretch to get to game seven after having two disappointing games.

The Nuggets’ chances at coming out of the West will come down to Jamal Murray and the supporting cast.

A big reason why the Nuggets won the year before was that Murray was playing like a clear All-Star and an All-NBA calibre. That wasn’t the case this year and that was the difference maker. Here are some of the stats in 2023 vs 2024:

• 24.9 → 20.8

• 54.5% → 44.8% eFG

• 58.6% → 47.4% TS

• 39.6% → 31.5% 3pt

• 51.7% → 43.4% 2pt

• .198 → .104 FTr

• 54.2% → 33.3% 3-10ft

• 50.8% → 47.2% 10-16ft

• 42.2% → 16-3pt

That’s a huge drop off in all stats. Although I’m not that high on Murray in general, especially with how he’s been ranked before this season, but he has shown that he’s a great number two. What he did this year(most likely due to injuries) was abysmal.

This is why I’m high on the Nuggets again. They don’t need Murray to be an All-NBA guy. He doesn’t need to make the All-Star either. He probably doesn’t have to match what he did in 2023. He just can’t be putting up numbers that wouldn’t even be good for any starting level guard.

No team is going to win having the second best player and their main guard shoot that poorly from everywhere. If they’re able to get one that is at least average, then their chances are back up there again. They probably beat the Wolves in six had they had Murray that played like his regular season self with no “playoff” jump.

But there are other questions beyond Murray playing better. Who and how will they replace Pope? I do think some of Pope’s impact has been slightly overrated but it’s now more of a case of simply who’s there to replace him? Overrated or not, do they even have anyone that can take that spot? Is Christian Braun taking that spot and is he even doing it well?

Although a small sample because of their lineups, in the last two years, the Nuggets with Jokic-Murray on and no Pope were +14.5 dominating on both ends in 516 minutes. That was the case in the playoffs too with them being +14.2 in 208 minutes.

But the Nuggets are already dealing with 3pt volume issues, losing a shooter — albeit not a high volume shooter — will hurt them even more. BUT Pope only took 4.8 3s per 75(that would rank in the 44th percentile). That increased to only 5.0 in the playoffs. He hasn’t been that high volume guy. BUTTT the defense still respected him and that’s what’s going to matter the most with the replacement.

I think the defensive end will hurt even more. Taking tough assignments and chasing guys around takes a toll. It’s good to have a defender that will take that responsibility over someone else. It’s also worth pointing out that he did lead them in defensive EPM in the playoffs this year and was second last year. He was key in their defense.

Then, there’s will Michael Porter Jr be consistent enough? He has series like the Lakers one where he simply can’t miss — he shot 49%. But then there are series where he shoots 32% against the Wolves. That happened last year in the finals too. Is he also going to add something more to his game offensively? Will there be something different? He is after all going to be making max money.

On top of that, how can the Nuggets even improve the team if things may require a change? They were already dealing with potential 2nd apron difficulties and that’s not going to be easy maneuvering around that. Maybe they explore trading Porter Jr? Or maybe it’s simply hoping they hit on their young guys’ growth.

There are questions, but they are questions more about can they dominate the playoffs, rather than can they still win. I still believe they should be almost the favourites to make the finals again. Going back to back is hard. That shouldn’t be a surprise that they didn’t make the finals. Outside of the Warriors and the Cavaliers, no one has been making the finals twice in a row.

Oklahoma City Thunder

I’d say most people would have the Thunder as the clear choice. They have everything going for them. They were the number one seed in the West. Even as a young team, they were able to make the semi-finals and make the series against the Mavericks close. Although they weren’t ready to make the push this year, they certainly put themselves on the right track

They literally have everything on the right track and I can see why they should have one of the best cases to make the finals.

A team has to go through these losses, early exits, and humps to figure out how to win. I don’t remember a single team that came out of nowhere and immediately won. There needs to be that journey of losses. The Thunder has steadily been on that journey and they’re young, which matters a lot.

There’s so much room for growth. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was making leaps still. Jalen Williams is heading into his third year. Chet Holmgren, already a key player, is bound to improve a lot. Even guys like Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, and Jaylin Williams are all 25 and under. Obviously, growth isn’t linear, but there is at least potential potential to account for.

Take Shai:

That’s the kind of improvement that’s possible. We don’t know what else he might add to his game or how he may look — he can still get better being only 26 years old. Now, with the Olympics he’s averaging 19 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, shooting 65% from 2pt and 37% from 3pt whilst still being a foul merchant averaging over 8 free throws.

He also looked good in his first playoffs as the star — averaging 28.8 points per 75 on 53.1% eFG and 58.2% TS with so much of the defense focused on taking away the paint. He was looking comfortable getting wherever he wanted. I have strong faith that he can be the best player on a championship team.

Then there’s his supporting cast with Williams, Holmgren, and Dort all still looking to improve and some potentially make leaps.

Holmgren in his first year was already one of the best bigs in the league and he was only playing just under 30 minutes. Here’s a fun stat! The Thunder had a +10.6 net rating with him on in the playoffs and that dropped to -5.0 without him. Even against the Mavericks, they were winning the minutes with him and Shai — +5.7 with a 119.3 ORTG.

Oh, and this is all without mentioning that they also got better through acquisitions! They added Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso. I talked about what the addition of Hartenstein is going to do here and what Caruso is going to bring here. They both make this team even more dangerous.

They make a team that was already second in net rating and one of the two teams that was both top 5 in both offense and defense better on both ends. You replace Josh Giddey with a player that adds more to the core in many ways. You also add Hartenstein that addresses one of your main needs in rebounding and make yourself more balanced.

One of their limitations was their rebounding — 27th in ORB% and 29th in DRB%. Rebounding hurt them. Defensive rebounding matters a lot. There will, of course, be tradeoffs by adding someone like Hartenstein in this group, considering he is a non-shooter, but it gives them versatility and be more balanced. Plus you never want to be one of the worst things in things that matter.

Both additions address something that was hurting them or simply makes them better in things that they were already good at — hello Caruso helping them be even more of a pest on defense after leading the league in opponent TOV%!

So, when you combine all of this:

• Shai playing like a top 7 player with room to improve

• Williams and Holmgren making a jump

• The young guys improving or at least not declining due to age

• The additions of Hartenstein and Caruso make the team more versatile, and balanced, and address their needs

There’s another point. The Thunder may not be done with making moves. They still have over 100 picks left to make any necessary changes. They can make moves if needed. Whatever hump they may need to get over, they can address it by throwing as many picks as needed to get what they want.

Outside of the Nuggets, with all these changes and improvements, I’m buying the Thunder making the finals this year. It will all come down to the improvements from both Williams and Holmgren. If they can get another reliable scorer/creator next to Shai, and diversify some of their offense, it’s tough to bet against them.

The Field & The Team That Comes Out

Outside of those four teams, I’m finding it hard to see any other team have a strong case at least right now. They are the remaining teams that are somewhat in contention:

• Phoenix Suns

• Memphis Grizzlies

• Los Angeles Lakers

• Los Angeles Clippers

• Golden State Warriors

• Sacramento Kings

• New Orleans Pelicans

I’m already taking out the last two teams. I’d bet they’re a first round exit than making the conference finals, let alone make the finals. I don’t think they have the talent or have enough questions answered to be in that tier.

The Warriors and Lakers are a case where it depends solely on how good can their aging superstars can be. I don’t think either is over the cliff. I don’t think either is washed. But it’s also hard to picture either player having enough in the tank to carry a team that high.

These aren’t teams that were already competing now. The Lakers lost in five to the Nuggets and the Warriors couldn’t make the playoffs. I think it’s time when it comes to not feeling entirely confident in their ability to win regardless of the circumstances.

AGH. That feels weird to type out. For so long, they’ve been able to make something out of nothing and I do think it’s at the point where that may not be possible. And I also question the rest of the team of being good enough to off-set that.

The Clippers are in the similar boat. They also got worse by losing Paul George. Did they do a good job trying to recover from it by adding guys like Derrick Jones Jr, Kris Dunn, and Nicolas Batum? Sure, but I don’t know if that’s enough.

Both Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are a year older and they aren’t exactly players that have shown much durability in the playoffs. I’m finding it hard to think they can carry the load for the year and the playoffs. And I don’t know if they did a good enough job to replace George, given that I didn’t think they were fully there even fully healthy. They certainly were in that range, but I’d have other teams ahead and now they taken a stepback.

The Grizzlies are the biggest wildcard because of how their season went. They were without Ja Morant. They dealt with the most injuries out of anyone. There’s nothing that can be taken away from this season going forward. Them being bad this year has zero bearing on what they can do this year.

Heading into last year, I was a huge believer. I had them finish second in the West and I can see that again this year. With them coming back fully healthy and still have all of the young players improve, there are certainly reasons to believe in their chances. They were a 56 win team in 2022 and 51 win team in 2023. They weren’t some team that was looking to break out, they already broke out.

Now, we’ll see a fully healthy version of Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, GG Jackson, Santi Aldama, and another wild card in Zach Edey? I can see myself getting talked into having them in the tier above by Christmas.

The Suns have the most potential out of any of these teams… I think. They clearly have the most offensive firepower and talent that could make any series hell. It’s going to be tough to also bet against Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal when they have more time together and are healthy.

In the regular season, with those three on, they had a +6.7 net with a 123.6 ORTG. They can and will outscore you. That’s going to be the thing that can make them dangerous in any series.

But I have doubts and major concerns with the defensive end. Those concerns were there last year too. I didn’t think they were contenders then and they clearly haven’t done much to make any needle moving moves. They’re looking like they’re in the same spot as last year with potential marginal improvements where they can make the second round exit and push for the conference finals.

Finally, wrapping this all up, my team to make the finals has to be the Denver Nuggets. I’m giving them the edge as they have the best player in the world(who’s also one of the greatest ever).