Early Predictions on Who's Making the Finals in the East

A discussion on the teams that are most likely to be a threat to the Celtics

Last time I went through my early thoughts and predictions on who I think will and should make out of the West. Well, today we’re doing exactly that but for the East.

But the East is already locked in for me. They are the defending champions. They dominated the entire year, the entire playoffs, and they’re bringing all of those guys back. There’s no argument to be made that they don’t deserve to be the clear number one heading into the season.

So, for this prediction, it’s going to be discussing who will have the best chance at dethroning the Celtics.

Boston Celtics

We obviously have to start with the Celtics. They were one of the dominant teams throughout the whole year. They lead the league with +11.3 net rating with the best ORTG at 123.2 and the third best DRTG at 112.0, per Cleaning the glass.

One of the main things was that they were this balanced of a team. Per PBP stats, they had the 6th best offense relative to average with +7.54. They also had a defense that was +3.81 — that’s not elite in itself, though, that would rank 80th. But it’s combining that elite offense that made them so dangerous.

Out of the top 20 teams in relative ORTG, here are the top defensive teams:

• 2017 Warriors

• 2024 Celtics

• 2013 Thunder

• 2016 Warriors

• 2018 Rockets

• 2012 Spurs

Those are the only teams that was at least 1pt better than average on defense. That’s dominance. They did that throughout the playoffs too with a +8.4 net.

They just cruised through by having the best collection of players that all fit perfectly and having so many options. Their most used lineup of Derrick white, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis were +11.1 with a 123.4 ORTG in 623 minutes. Or they could’ve run two bigs with adding Al Horford there and were +11.8 with 122.0 ORTG. Or even run neither and be still +12.3 with a 123.0 ORTG!

They had so many possibilities and that’s because of the talent they had and how it all came together. The funniest stat is looking at any players’ off court rating:

• Tatum: +12.4

• Brown: +16.0

• Porzingis: +11.9

• Horford: +11.1

• White: +9.9

• Holiday: +13.8

It didn’t matter which player came off, they were dominating — kind of funny that White is the only one not in double digits. Maybe he’s their most valuable player!

What’s more important is this core finally won. They got over the hump and now that’s kind of scary. Outside of Horford, there’s no one that can possibly regress or fall off because of age. Their two best players can still get better. They still have all of the weapons on both ends.

Their offense will still be thriving, even if you’d account for some regression — they did rank 2nd in 3pt percentage. That’s because they were winning in other areas so well too. Out of 27 games where they shot below 35%, they had 8 games with at least 120 ORTG(12 above 117).

Same goes to their defense, though that may be a question mark depending on what happens with Horford. They made their run with him as the five. I don’t know what that would’ve looked with Porzingis, seeing as he’s not the kind of switch defender. But that’s a question that’s nitpicking.

They are the best team in league right now and I don’t know which team would have the best personnel to knock them off in the East. These three next teams are all in the same tier to me with different questions.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers have made the biggest splash in the off-season by getting Paul George. I went in more detail with what exactly they can get from George here!

This was the best move that they could’ve made with all of the cap space. I do also they put themselves as the second best team in the East, but that’s compared to the rest of the field. I don’t know if that move alone does much when it comes to the Celtics.

Firstly, everything depends on Joel Embiid. Will he be healthy? Is he going to have the kind of season he had in the previous two seasons where he played 68 and 66 games? Or will he struggle more?

People might have forgotten because he did only play 39 games but he did lead the league in EPM with +10.5. He upped his scoring to 38.1 points per 75 possessions on 64.4% TS! His scoring was simply on a whole other level. He was scoring efficiently from everywhere on the floor and there wasn’t much that you could do to stop him.

That’s why the 76ers were +9.8 with him on with a 121.2 ORTG and 115.2 DRTG but had that drop to -0.5 without him. That was SEEN in the playoffs where they were +8.4 with him vs the Knicks but a whopping -50.7 without him. I don’t know is the last time I’ve seen that kind of swing.

Any conversation starts with Embiid being healthy and that alone is a huge ask.

But assuming that, even last year, they had a solid team that should’ve been much better had they been healthier. Now, they got better by adding George, Eric Gordon, Reggie Jackson, Caleb Martin, and Andre Drummond. They do have a couple of departures that I would say hurt with Nicolas Batum and De’Anthony Melton.

The addition of George does change a lot. That adds a legitimate third option that can be your second when need be. He fits perfectly with the duo of Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. It’s always good to have three players that do different things, are different positions, are different size, have different tools, and can be used in different ways. That gives you a lot more versatility than having very similar elite players.

George is still at the level where he’s a clear, high impact player. One of those things is bringing elite level of high volume shooting. He’s shooting 39.5% on 11.2 per 100 possessions from 3pt since 2017! That’s insane. He can still do other things too.

One interesting stat that I saw was his AST% over the years. This year, it was the lowest since 2018 at 16.1%, but in the previous three seasons, it was at 25.2%. He’s more than capable of being a creator for himself and for others. That gives the 76ers another reliable option, which they didn’t have — Tobias Harris wasn’t anywhere close that.

Maxey is also the key x-factor here. He’s already been taking leaps in each season, particularly offensively:

That number already ranks 13th in the league. If there’s another jump, that would be huge for him and the team. If they have three borderline to elite offensive talents at three different roles, that’s going to be hard to stop.

This is where I can see the 76ers make a run at the Celtics with their offense. I would have questions defensively. It’s hard to see them defending the Celtics. That’s the biggest worry. But offensively, that would be a fun series. That’s where they could test them.

New York Knicks

The Knicks are the opposite. I think they’d be the team that could be more defensive slanted if they were to give them trouble. There are more options and size with Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson, and Precious Achiuwa. It seems like there’s more versatility, potential switch-ability, and less matchups to hunt.

This also comes from not being that high on the Knicks offense in general and I think that’s what stops me from being that higher on them.

The offense is very Jalen Brunson. He lead the league in time of possession in the regular season and the playoffs(twice now). Maybe that does look different with a healthy Randle and both Anunoby and Bridges, but I don’t know how much I love that.

In the regular season, the Knicks did have a 122.9 ORTG with Brunson on. That number was 123.0 with both him and Randle. Or it was also 122.8 with just Brunson and Randle off. It also was 120.9 in the playoffs… so, maybe my “feel” is a bit off here. I just have doubts in a very ball dominant centric offense by a small guard.

But we haven’t seen the pre Bridges team healthy, which would’ve been an important thing to note. And now we also haven’t seen the healthy version WITH Bridges. Now, it’s just a question of fit and roles for each players. There’s going to be a lot of experimentation, sacrifice, and going through rough patches to figure out.

One thing that I would want to note is the departure of Isaiah Hartenstein. That’s going to matter. In the regular season where they were +10.3 with a 122.8 ORTG with him and -0.4 with 114.5 ORTG without him. I don’t know how they’re going to replace that or minimise the loss.

Is Robinson going to be good enough? He’s not the level of a passer that Hartenstein was and that mattered. But the defense too! Robinson’s rim protection has been yikes this year. He defended 4.8 shots within 6ft and opponents shot 70.3%! That’s 5.5% better than expected — Hartenstein defended 6.2 and opponents shot 53.1%(11.2% worse). Though, I should note Robinson was better last year with 57.3%(7.2 worse) last year, 53.9%(10.0 worse) in 2022. That will HAVE to bounce back if they want a chance.

Outside of that, it’s relying on Brunson being able to do what he did in the regular season to translate in the playoffs again. He had a +5.9 EPM in the regular season, which dropped to +2.4 in the playoffs, with a lot of that being the defense. But the offense also dropped +6.4 to +4.1. That matters a lot too. You need that kind of elite player and not just great. Then it’s the supporting cast and whatever happens with Randle.

But right now, I don’t think the Knicks are there to be a big threat to the Celtics.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks definitely need to be up here because having Giannis Antetokounmpo will give you that benefit of the doubt. It’s also tougher to have many thoughts on the team considering we didn’t see them in the playoffs healthy.

Their biggest move last year that traded Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard wasn’t at full display because there was no Giannis. They also had a rough ride throughout the season too with the coaching changes and everything that was going on there. Their injuries. They had a rough year.

But when they were healthy, they were just as dominant. Out of 10 lineups that played 500 minutes, they were 1st in net rating with +15.8 and 125.1 ORTG. The quartet of Giannis, Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton were +16.8 with 126.2 ORTG. They were clearly as dominant as anyone. The only issue is that they barely played and played nothing in the playoffs.

It’s that what’s going to be the issue for them heading into this season. Lillard already signed sign of looking eh. He had his career best eFG% last year and that dropped to 7th best. His TS% dropped from career high to 5th best. His rim rate dropped to 24.4%, which was his career low and in turn, his short mid-range frequency went up to 15.3%(a career high). His offensive EPM was yikes:

Is this a blip like in 2022? Or is it a decline now? That’s going to determine a lot.

That’s the same story for Middleton and for Lopez. They are reaching that age and have dealt with injuries. Take Lopez with his defensive impact:

He’s 36 now and I don’t know many old 7fters that continue being elite at that age in that role. And the worst part is that the Bucks really need him. Their DRTG was 113.9 with him and 119.8 without him.

When it comes to Giannis. He’s Giannis. There’s no worry there. He’s still a top 5 player in the world. Him missing the playoffs was such big blip — he literally played the most games since 2018 when he was 23.

This year he finished with 31.2 points per 75 and shot 61% from the field! 64% from 2pt and 64.9% TS. Both career highs. His rim stats are hilarious to look at — near 78% at the rim with 62% of his shots there. Talk about an unstoppable player.

That’s why as long as they have this Giannis, they will have a chance. I worry about the rest of the roster. I don’t know if they have it in them for a deep playoff run. Their guards are questionable, particularly on defense. There’s no back up to Lopez. Are we going to see more Giannis at the 5? But I still can’t count out Giannis.

The Field & Who’s the biggest threat

When it comes to the field… I don’t see it with anyone, really.

The Magic are still too young and early, especially with their offense. I don’t have much hope for the Cavaliers, with their questionable offense and their defense too, with the guards. Pacers rematch? Did they get better defensively? Because the Celtics were cooking whatever they wanted. Even with the Heat, I don’t know about that either.

There’s no one else that I can look at with the field and think they can make that a series. I think these teams would have more questions than the others or have less trust in their top players.

I honestly see the Celtics being a tier above these teams on both ends of the floor. And even if you think you might have an answer somewhere on one end, there’s going to be a question mark on the other.

Though, being a Heat fan, I do need a healthy Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to go against them. I need a fresh Butler to give us a throwback 2023 vs Bucks series type of play. BUT even then, I don’t see them be that competitive.

But to the answer the question, I think the biggest threat(assuming health) is the Bucks. I have more faith in Giannis than Embiid. I have more faith in them on both ends of the floor. I like the option with Giannis at the five potentially in the playoffs. A healthy, fully integrated Lillard with Giannis will cause problems. And if Middleton can come back and still be effective, efficient as he’s usually been, that is a good core. Similar to the 76ers, I will have questions defensively, especially with Lillard and Trent Jr, but I favour their talent on offense.