Golden State Warriors 2024-25 Season Preview

Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!

Season & Off-season Recap

Sigh. What a disappointing season for the Golden State Warriors. Another year wasted of Stephen Curry’s prime. I’m a huge Curry fan and it hurts to see his final best years be on a team that has no chance of competing.

After a disappointing ending last year in the playoffs and what came afterward with making drastic changes to the team, this year probably couldn’t have gone any worse.

The whole Chris Paul experiment wasn’t great. There was the Draymond Green suspension. They missed the playoffs — for the second freaking time in Curry’s prime!

There were some positives with Brandin Podziemski showing a lot of promise in his rookie season. Jonathan Kuminga was looking much better and may have established himself as the fourth or third-best player.

But in the end that still resulted in missing the playoffs. You can’t even blame health here. Curry played 74 games. Klay Thompson played 77. Kuminga played 74. Andrew Wiggins played 71. Podziemski played 74. It was Green and Paul who played 55 and 58.

Here are some fun(or not-so-fun actually) lineup stats:

• Curry/Paul/Green: -2.8 net in 167 minutes with a 108.8 offense

• Curry/Green: +5.0 in 1288 with a 118.7

• Curry/Paul: +3.8 in 599 with a 118.1

• Curry/Thompson/Paul: -3.0 in 1813 with 116.0

The team was still good offensively with Curry on with them being +2.4 in 2421 minutes with a 119.3 offense. They were even positive without him with +2.3 in 1545 but with a 116.2 offense.

But the whole experiment didn’t work. They were worse together. And the thing that continued to hurt was their defense. They were the second-best defense in 2022 and that slowly declined to 12th and 15th. Their rebounding got worse. They stopped forcing turnovers, being 22nd.

Their off-season saw even more changes and that is underestimating it given who left. I never thought that Thompson would be the one to leave the Warriors. That’s another case of that just never happened and I don’t care what happens in his career from now on. He’s a Warrior and that’s it.

They managed to pull something out of nothing. They struck out on every potential swing move. Not sure how realistic some of those talks were but they couldn’t bring in an All-Star-level talent to give them a much better chance. They ended up getting Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield, and De’Anthony Melton. Solid moves, but how much will they matter in the grand scheme of things, I’m not sure.

I wouldn’t say this off-season made me feel better about their chances of building a contender around Curry.

Season Preview

So, what’s in store for the Warriors:

• Can Curry continue his greatness and will this team to the playoffs?

• A lot will fall on Green being available and I mean a lot

• How will the new acquisition fit into this system?

• Will we see changes from Steve Kerr to maximize whatever this team is?

• Are there any moves to be made in-season?

• Young player’s development and potential leaps

• What are the rotations and lineups that make sense on both ends?

As much as it’s not his fault for having arguably the worst supporting cast out of any “good” team, Curry will have to, not only continue his greatness but may need a bit more from him.

He is already 36 years old. There were already signs of some decline. It’s obviously unreasonable for him to play this many games and play this many minutes and score so much efficiently and have the whole system revolve around him. His style of play is exhausting and he IS 36 years old!

He already had the worst 2pt% since 2014. He had the lowest free throw rate since 2019. He had the lowest assist percentage since 2019. He’s getting to the rim at a career-low rate. Even his impact metrics are trending down:

I know it was the Olympics and he also didn’t have the most consistent performance either, but what he was doing in those two games to close it out, I can’t get myself there that you can’t win with him as your best player. The only issue is having a good enough team. I’m not sure even the best version of Curry can make it work with this team.

But he has had a considerable amount of drop-offs in multiple areas. Here’s his efficiency as a ball handler in the PNR in the last few seasons:

• 0.91(49.1% eFG) → 1.14(61.7%) → 1.02(55.2%) → 1.13(57.7%)

That’s worrying and a huge concern if it continues.

Here’s his efficiency off handoffs:

• 1.05(52.5%) → 1.20(61.2%) → 0.93(46.0%) → 1.27(64.4%)

That needs to bounce back.

Despite the drop-offs, he’s still elite and the team is still great with him, especially offensively. They had a 119.3 offense with him, which would be fourth in the league.

Despite the drop-offs, he’s still shooting over 40% on over 17 3s per 100. He’s still commanding immense defensive attention that creates easy shots for others. That will never go away — the man might be 45 and no one will dare to leave him open.

But when talking about being a contender, especially when the team isn’t as great, all of that from Curry needs to be better to offset that. How likely it is, it’s a different story.

Equally as important, it’s going to depend on Green a lot. That’s arguably even more important because of what’s been going on with the team already in the last few years.

They will need him defensively:

Green is vital to their defense. In some of their lineups, it falls off without him. That trio of Curry, Green, and Kuminga had a 108.6 defense but it dropped to 120.7 without him. In games that Green played, they were a 60% win team with a 113.3 defense. But when he didn’t play, they were a 48% win team with a 120.8 defense!

Their season will hinge on Green being able to carry them defensively. Maybe with all this rest, it’s going to happen.

Carrying on with their defense, they still have Wiggins, Kuminga, Moody, Melton, and Anderson to help with that. They are all solid to great defenders that have size. There are players that they can plug in to cover up for players and defend in different ways.

Their defense might be more important than their offense, given what they have to work with. This will be the question that determines their season.

But on the other end of the floor, I think it’s less of a question of how players fit and more are those players good enough. I really question who on this team can even create for themselves regularly.

Will they hope they can have a well-balanced, movement offense that doesn’t rely or depend on self-creation? But even then, do they have the personnel for that? There are smart players like Anderson that could make it work. Is it hoping for Podziemski to take that leap?

When it comes to the offense, it’s going to be a lot on Kerr to cook up a system that maximizes each player. Will they go back to more transition with this roster?

They aren’t a PNR team(25th in frequency and 26th as the roll man). They were 1st in both cuts and off-screens, but they did lose Thompson — Thompson led the league with 5.6 possessions off-screens, with Curry being second at 3.8. Hield hasn’t been that in a while, nor is he a player to get a bunch of shots inside the arc too in that way. That’s over 5 possessions that they will have to replace.

I can’t even think that this might be a change in an offense completely because they also don’t have the personnel for that. They need this kind of offense but don’t have the players for it either. This might have to be something completely different.

Because Melton is a solid secondary ball handler who is a reliable 3pt shooter but isn’t doing much else on that end, especially inside the arc — he shot 42% with the 76ers this year.

Anderson is a smart player but isn’t a scorer, primary ball handler, or any of the sorts. He also has fit issues with his lack of a reliable shot. That was already an issue for the Wolves and now you’re adding him with Green and Kevon Looney?

Hield will be the most intriguing piece because he’s a damn good shooter but different from Thompson. That’s not a bad thing, though. It may give them something completely new and better.

Perhaps the biggest change comes from the potential leaps from their young players.

Kuminga finished the season averaging 22.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per 75 possessions on 56.0% eFG and 59.8% TS. Even as a starter, he maintained this level of efficiency. He also had a 43-game stretch with 18.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game!

That’s the potential that they will likely be hoping for. If he can solidify himself as the clear third-best player and give them a lot more on offense, that could make it work. He’s already been their best source of rim pressure, shooting 73% at the rim with over 40% of his shots there.

There is the question of his extension that will likely loom over them until it happens.

Then there’s Podziemski, who was a nice bright spot for them this year. And by the looks of how they’ve been treating him in terms of trade talks, they believe in him, and similar to Kuminga, he might be one of the players they hope to make this build work. There’s still a lot of work for him there, though.

He had a solid rookie season doing a bunch of everything. He shot the ball well with 38% on just under 6 3s per 100. He had an 18% assist percentage, but a 12% turnover to go with it. Wasn’t entirely efficient, didn’t get to the line, and had limited usage as a PNR guy.

It’s going to take a huge leap for him to be effective in that kind of role. But when it comes to still helping them in a lesser role but in different ways, there are reasonable jumps that can make that life easier.

There’s still Moody, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Gary Payton, and Looney! Right now, outside of Looney, they are just role players who don’t swing a team one way or the other. They provide a good depth, all doing something different, but not anything special either.

I’m intrigued by Jackson-Davis, who gave solid minutes as a big with his highly efficient scoring(shot 70% from 2pt). He looked better as the season went on, particularly on defense and he’s 6’9! He may jump up to being a key bench player for them.

With all of this, there’s going to be a lot of questions regarding fit on both ends. They have players that fit one end and compromise the other. They might give the offense a boost with more spacing, but that might make them smaller, worse defensively, and put a lot on Green’s back. Or they might prioritize size and defense with the wings, but at the same time make everything cramped and make Curry’s life hell.

Finally, will there be a trade? They’ve been trying. They clearly need to improve to give them the best chance of competing. They have good-sized contracts to make something work. That will likely depend a lot on how the season is going and where they’re struggling.

Predictions

• 42-48 wins

• Floor(worst case scenario): Potentially missing the play-in

• Ceiling(best case scenario): 6th seed

As much as I hate to say it, I don’t see the season turning out any different than it has now. This season also probably is a lot different had Green not got suspended — they were a 60% win team with him and 48% without him. I’m basing this that he will play.

With everyone healthy and playing, they’ll be in the play-in and I can see them crawling around that sixth seed throughout the year. They will never be bad as a lottery team with Curry and Green.

I do like the additions of making the team more well-rounded and giving them more options with the lineups, but now it’s just a matter of how that’s going to work and fit. It’s all down to Kerr to figure it out.

In terms of their overall ceiling and goal, it depends on Curry being generational. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a bounce-back season from him(not that his season was necessarily bad either), and that he might reach MVP level again. I want that to be true.

But mostly, it will depend on their defense. They have better personnel for that and with Green in the lineup, that should be a lot better. And for that reason, I do see them with a higher floor.

Overall, I see these moves as making their floor better but not a great help in them winning a championship. Their playoff chances depend 101% on Green and Curry.