Houston Rockets 2024-25 Season Preview

Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!

Season & Offseason Recap

This was a big success of a season for the Houston Rockets. In the previous three seasons before this year, they won 17, 20, and 22 games. That jumped to 41 this year. That alone is a huge achievement for a team that wasn’t doing anything. They were left in a hole after James Harden left and it wasn’t looking great beyond having a handful of solid to good young players.

They had a different approach last off-season that brought in Ime Udoka, Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Jeff Green, and drafted Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. Only 44% of the season minutes were filled by returning players.

That significant change had a clear impact right away.

Here are their defensive ranks for the previous three seasons: 29th, 30th, 27th. This year, they were 7th. The whole culture shift, defensive philosophy, and better personnel flipped the script on that end. The offense was still lacking, but when you’re a young team looking to continue to get better, it’s better to build better habits on the defensive end.

This season didn’t end in a playoff appearance or a play-in appearance, but it still was a successful season. There were so many positives and even more things to continue to look forward to.

It was unfortunate that it ended with Sengun going down with an injury and at the same having their best win streak of the season without him.

The signings and the draft paid off. The young guys continued to look better. It was a bit up and down with some, which leaves certain questions wide open, but in general, they’ve set themselves up well this season for what’s to come next.

Their off-season was spot on too, which was just drafting Reed Sheppard. That, combined with everything else, players returning from injuries, and potential moves to be made, this upcoming season should be a fun one.

Season Preview

So, what’s in store for the Rockets?

• Can they continue having that kind of defense?

• Will their offense improve significantly?

• What can we expect from Alperen Sengun coming back from injury? Can he take a leap?

• Is this year make or break for Jalen Green?

• How quickly can Thompson develop?

• What do they have in Whitmore?

• Can Jabari Smith continue the gradual development he’s shown so far?

• How much can Reed impact the team in his rookie season?

• The value of Steven Adams

• Will they be buyers at any point and make a splash?

Not even sure where to start with this team because there’s a whole bunch of little things everywhere. A good starting point should be with the overall team's defense and offense.

Can they continue to have this elite defense? That’s what was carrying them through the season. 26 of their games came in the 80th percentile or higher. They had 13 games with a defensive rating of 100 or lower.

They are bringing the same guys back, so that should remain the same thing. I don’t think that was anything flukey, but a solid defensive approach. They’re getting two guys that should help one way or the other in Sheppard and Adams(more on their impact later).

Although it is a question for them, I do think this is an easy answer, that their defense will be good enough again to win games.

The bigger question will be the offense. They were 20th, per Cleaning the Glass. They were 24th in eFG%. They did rebound the ball and took care of the ball, which also contributed to their offense being this good already.

They were better with their best players on:

• With Sengun on: 115.8

• With Sengun/VanVleet on: 116.9

• With Sengun/VanVleet/Green: 117.1

But that also comes with a tradeoff for them on the offensive end. That’s going to be a tough decision with how they go about their lineups and rotation. Do they look to continue to have an elite defense, even if it might not make the most sense offensively? Or should they look to maximize spacing and offense to boost them from being bottom 10? Though at the moment, I’m not even sure if there’s enough talent offensively to have a much better offense.

A lot of that(on both ends of the floor) will hinge on Sengun. He made a jump with more touches and more usage while maintaining similar efficiency. He went from 21% usage to 27% and went down 60% TS to 58%.

He continues to get high-quality shots at the rim, shooting over 66% with over 45% of his looks there. He improved his touch in the paint to shoot around 48%. He even made a leap beyond 14ft shooting 40%, up from 31% last year. He remains one of the better passers but hasn’t been at the level or in a position to run the offense at a significant volume.

His work as a scorer in isolation still needs a lot of work. He shot 42% on over 2 possessions with 11% of his offense there. That was 0.82 points per possession. Similar to his post-work with him shooting 54% on 3.6 with 17% of his offense. That was 0.96 points per.

There are still plenty of areas that need to improve to have him gain more touches and more responsibility which could also lead to a much more efficient offense.

He has been showing all of the tools and potential, but now it’s needing to show more. It’s the time for a potential extension. This is the time that if you’re looking to get a potential rookie max, there needs to be a lot of evidence of that potential. I think he’s been there offensively with clear signs of improvement.

But then there’s the defensive side. There are still questions on that end for me if the conversation is about building a winning team. There are again signs of improvement and promise.

He was fourth in shots defended within 6 feet with 8.4 and opponents shot 59.6%, which is 4.7% worse than average. Out of 8 players with at least 8 shots defended, he’s 7th in the %(Nikola Jokic is last). Out of 17 players listed as centers that defended at least 7 shots, he’s 15th in %. The other players in his range are Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis.

On the other hand, there are only 15 qualifying players that match his steal percentage(1.8%) and block percentage(2.1%). This includes Jusuf Nurkic, Victor Wembanyama, Jokic, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jaren Jackson Jr. He’s fifth amongst those in defensive rebound percentage.

This season is going to be very important for him to take big steps on both ends of the floor to get that extension. Can he push himself to be a player worth that with a potentially higher ceiling?

This is awfully similar to Green. This is perhaps a make-or-break year for him, even more so than Sengun. I would say it has been a bit disappointing for him in these two seasons, given some of the expectations.

Looking at his stats in his career, where are the jumps? He’s a streaky 3-point shooter who is shooting 34% for his career, has a career 49% eFG, had a drop off in FTA, passing remaining at a similar volume, and shooting splits remaining all over the place.

He certainly has the tools. There are stretches where he looks great. In his last 24 games, he averaged 24.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 55% eFG and 58% TS, but a lot of that is him shooting 37% from 3pt. How much of that is simply hot shooting?

Even in that stretch, it was inconsistent. Out of 24 games, he had 7 games with 60% TS or higher, but he also had 14 below 55%. It’s hot or cold, with more cold. But there’s not much else to go by. The biggest positive is that he upped his scoring at the rim to 66% with over 26% of his shots there but that is out of the norm for him.

Without great scoring and not being an elite passer, what is there that shows he should get a considerable extension?

If there’s no extension agreed upon, should they consider trading him? That should be a discussion at some point in the season. They will still have a good young core even after moving him and they could get something of value for him.

Speaking of the rest of the young core, that should be the main goal for this year and the future. They have Smith, Whitmore, Thompson, and now Sheppard. How that core goes about

Smith has been steadily improving on both ends of the floor in both his seasons:

• 2pt: 48.7% → 53.0%

• 3pt: 30.7% → 36.3%

• eFG: 47.5% → 53.6%

• TS: 51.1% → 57.1%

When it comes to his impact metrics, he went from -2.8 EPM to -0.8. Going from one of the bottom players to almost average. That’s a significant jump for a young player. With those improvements, there’s already a clear path for him to be an impactful player soon.

Whitmore wasn’t regularly in the rotation, getting a bunch of DNPs here and there. The start was slow, but towards the end, it was something. In the second half of the season, in 30 games, he averaged 14.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 0.9 assists on 52.6% eFG and 54.9% TS. With the way he finished off the season, it’s now building upon that and seeing what they have in him.

The most intriguing part of the core is Thompson. He has already flashed so much, especially with his athleticism on both ends of the floor.

There’s all of this:

Per BBall-Index, he already ranked second in defensive playmaking amongst forwards. He had a 2.7 steal percentage and 2.5 block percentage! Absolutely insane.

There are only 20 other seasons that match some of his defensive numbers:

Offensively, there’s still a lot of work to be done, but there are things you simply can’t teach there. There’s no way you can teach someone to have such a burst where he’s shooting 68% at the rim with over 60% of his shots there! And only half are being assisted! There are improvements everywhere else, but that off-dribble ability opens up so much. It doesn’t even have to be a 3-point shot either.

But just because of this skill, any improvements that address other areas with this already taken care of, it’s going to be tough for him not to be a good offensive player.

Combine that with the defense, his development this year is going to be huge for this team. I think this can be a game-changer for the Rockets if he takes a leap.

There’s also the rookie Sheppard! Who fits this team perfectly! Here are some fun college stats per Sam Vecenie. Kentucky was 29.5 points better with him than off. They had a 129.9 offensive rating with him and 113.6 without him. Their defense went from 108.5 to 121.7. The impact is wild. With what he also showed in the summer league, I don’t think it’s going to take long for him to be an impactful player right away.

Who’s not excited to see Adams play? He was a big help for the Grizzlies team before his injury where he also missed the entire season. His rebounding, particularly on the offensive end, and his screening are key.

Teams have been consistently better with him than without in almost every season he’s been on:

The offense in particular for the Grizzlies was disappearing without him. That probably has a lot to do with what he opened up as a big and all of his rebounding. Here are the team’s offensive rebounding percentages over the years:

• 2023 Grizzlies: 36.8%(99th %ile) & +11.0% better with him

• 2022 Grizzlies: 36.1%(99th) & +7.3% better

• 2021 Pelicans: 30.4%(97th) & +3.0% better

For a team that needs offense(and who also was 10th in offensive rebounding), this is going to be a huge boost for them. He should make life a lot easier for everyone.

He can be the big body that they don’t have elsewhere to fit with Smith Jr or maybe even Sengun together. He will definitely help the guards get open. This addition could be one of the biggest for them on both ends of the floor. And if Sengun develops a good enough shot to play alongside Adams, that may fix many of the issues they have.

We haven’t touched on their two vets! VanVleet and Brooks. I almost have forgotten about them as I’m writing this. But I think I forgot because there’s not much to say. They’re not at the age where they’ll be declining or have a falling-off-a-cliff type of year. But they’re also not at an age where we can expect major leaps either.

VanVleet is VanVleet. I don’t think that will change. He’s a good enough starting point guard to help this team but that is all. If there’s any plan to get better or to make a push, they will have to upgrade. He’s overly reliant on that 3-point shot because he just can’t score inside the arc — a career 44% from 2pt.

He’s never going to be efficient or somehow flip a switch getting to the rim and converting. There’s just a lot of holes there. But I don’t think that matters for the Rockets at this point. He’s the best they have at this point and it has been good enough for what they want to do. They were +3.3 with him on and -2.3 without him.

Similar to Brooks. He’s one of the best wing defenders. He had a good 3pt shooting season but what else does he give you offensively? Highly inefficient, high volume, at times chucker. He’s not a guy you rely on offensively or help much to make life easier for others on that end(again that’s the compromise on either end). He’s an All-Defense caliber player and that was a big part of why they were elite defensively.

These two should probably fit as they were.

Finally, with all of the rumors that have been heard about the Rockets, I wonder how they will approach the deadline. They’ve already been rumored that they may have been aggressive in getting someone to win now.

Does this depend on how well they do throughout the season? What kind of win-now move is a win-now move? Does that mean sacrificing some of the young core? Or is it a similar move to getting VanVleet, Brooks, and now Adams where they’re not compromising their future? They’re obviously not going to be making moves to compete for a title, but the moves can happen to make the playoffs at least.

If they can remain competitive by getting better players for the right place and have the young core to keep developing and perhaps hit on them whilst they’re on a small deal, it could prove to be an effective strategy.

There’s so much here for the Rockets. Whatever happens, even if they look to be more competitive or still embrace the young core(with or without some of them), it will be fun.

Predictions

• 42-48 wins

• Floor(worst case scenario): Missing the play-in

• Ceiling(best case scenario): Scraping to be the 6th seed

I do expect a gradual improvement from them. I don’t think that will result in a big enough jump to make them a lock for the playoffs, but that’s also more about the West being better than them.

The addition of Adams will be big and I think that alone could push them upwards significantly. They were already +2.1 net with a 20th-best offense. That should improve with all of the additions and potential improvements.

Everything they’ve done was a good thing. They made the right moves. They drafted well. They have the right veterans. They have good young players who have high potential and can be highly impactful right away too. And yet, this may not be enough. The West can simply be better and there’s nothing else they can do.

There’s only so much that they can control and they did all they could’ve done barring a major trade for a win-now player.

I don’t expect that to happen. I think they will play this out and maybe make a small win now move, perhaps moving on from Green for the right price. If they can flip Green for someone better that fits right now that is also not old, that could be perfect.

Overall, this was a successful season and a decent off-season to set them up for this year. This needs to be a play in appearance for them, though. After the jump they made, anything less than that should be seen as a disappointment. You don’t want to go backward.