Indiana Pacers 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
This was a season for the Indiana Pacers. Making the conference finals this quickly after making the change in the direction of the team is pretty good to see. It took two full seasons since trading for Tyrese Haliburton to do so and they should only get better.
The reason for that is how their offense flipped. They were 21st in 2023 and that jumped to second this year. Even beyond the simple offensive rating stat, their offense was flowing, it was fast, it was fun, it was exciting, and it was a bunch of highly efficient looks. That made up for their bottom defense
Haliburton was playing at an All-NBA level. They had so many role players playing so well within the system. Everything fit. Things were clicking. They made a trade to get top-tier talent in Pascal Siakam, which also improved the defense.
They did get a lucky break with the Milwaukee Bucks missing Giannis Antetokounmpo missing the series and Damian Lillard being hurt. That certainly helped them being able to take care of the series in six games.
They again got a lucky break with the injuries that the New York Knicks were dealing with, but to their credit, they did fight hard in a seven-game series and deserved the win.
Their season did end in a sweep but it was the Boston Celtics, and Haliburton also wasn’t 100%. Without making it a moral victory, they were right there in multiple games that they could’ve won. That does count for something. Not being outmatched to the point where it’s no competition does matter.
This was a successful season for them.
Their off-season was rather quiet when it came to adding players. They’re taking a chance on James Wiseman, which could be a high swing for them. And drafted a few 2nd rounders in Tristen Newton, Enrique Freeman, and Johnny Furphy.
Their main off-season goal was retaining their guys. They extended Pascal Siakam, which they clearly needed to do. And they brought back Andrew Nembhard, James Johnson, and Obi Toppin — they’re running it back.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Pacers:
Can their historic offense continue?
A full season with Siakam after giving him the extension. How much better will he make them?
Will see a full season of All-NBA Haliburton? What jumps can we see from him?
Will their defense improve?
Can some of their young players establish themselves in the rotation?
What are some realistic jumps from their “young-ish” players?
Is there potential for Wiseman to look solid?
What’s the path to getting better?
Everything is in place for the Pacers to be better on both ends of the floor. There is a world where they can be a top-three team in the East.
The question now is how much better can they get. They were:
2nd in offensive rating with 121.6 per Cleaning the Glass
2nd in eFG% with 57.8%
3rd in TS% with 60.7%
8th in turnover percentage with 12.7%
20th in 3pt rate with 38.0%
9th in 3pt percentage with 37.4%
9th in rim FG% with 68.6%
4th in rim freq with 32.0%
2nd in short mid FG% with 47.5%
1st in long mid FG% with 51.6%
A lot of these stats aren’t screaming that they should be the second-best offense in the league. They’re not relying on high volume from 3pt. They’re not shooting at an absurd level.
Then when you look at their playtypes:
Transition: 1.16(11th) points per possession with 20.0% freq
Pick and roll ball handler: 0.96(6th) with 18.1%(7th)
Pick and roll roll man: 1.34(1st) with 7.0%(4th)
Spot up: 1.07(10th) with 23.8%(17th)
Handoff: 0.96(10th) with 3.9%(24th)
Cuts: 1.40(1st) with 6.9%(12th)
Isolation: 0.99(8th) with 4.4%(29th)
Post up: 1.11(2nd) with 3.5%(19th)
They’re just good all around. There’s nothing that relying solely on. There are no flukey or unsustainable numbers. They have the fastest pace with 13.8 seconds per possession on offense, which certainly helps.
What is encouraging is that this worked in the playoffs. A lot of what worked through 82 games worked when the defense stepped up and the game slowed down — the game did slow down. They had a 14.6 offensive pace, but that was still second in the playoffs. They were still faster relative to the competition. All of their efficiency from each floor was around the same or even better.
Their identity and brand of basketball didn’t change and it was just as effective.
Now, there may be some drop-offs in some areas statistically, but I would still think they’re going to be better overall. How good an offense is, isn’t just based on the numbers but questions like how adaptable it is, how many counters it may have, how it deals with stronger defenses, how versatile they are, can overcome bad shooting nights, what do they when their number option is taken out of the game, etc. It’s those areas that I think this historic offense can get even better.
The number one reason for that is what Siakam can bring. He did play 41 games with the Pacers, but it’s going to be difficult bringing an All-Star caliber player and seamlessly working them into the system.
And yet, he still had a very good season with them. He averaged 23.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per 75 possessions on 57.9% eFG and 60.2% TS.
He gives them something they didn’t have before trading for him. Another reliable shot creator who can get easy, efficient looks on his own, as well as fit with whatever they need.
One key stat that stood out is how he gives them a reliable option in the post. He was used in the post 14% of his possessions. He scored 1.19 points per possession with 62.1% eFG — that carried on in the playoffs where he scored 1.36 points. And we saw that their post-efficiency was the best in the league.
That’s one of the versatility that he brings. He also helps them in their style of play, particularly in transition. He scored 1.21 points in transition with 20% of his offense there — that jumped to 1.44 in the playoffs.
He also helped them a lot in the minutes without Haliburton. In 415 minutes without him, the Pacers were +6.0 with a 126.8 offense! Siakam in those minutes averaged 25.7 points on 58.6% eFG and 62.2% TS with 26.4% usage. Before the Siakam trade, the Pacers without Haliburton were -2.5 with a 118.0 offense in 867 minutes.
There’s now the question of how will they continue to not only use him but maximize him. Siakam isn’t some role player that you plug in and that’s it. He is and has proven that he can be an effective player that you build around. This is an All-NBA level talent player.
All of this will be made easier as long as they have a healthy Haliburton for the entire season. Haliburton was an All-NBA guard, but he also had a significant drop-off since dealing with injuries.
In 33 games up until January 8th, he averaged 23.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 12.5 assists per game on 59.7% eFG and 63.6% TS, shooting 59.1% from 2pt and 40.3% from 3pt. He was shooting 66.4% at the rim, 54.3% within 4-14ft, and 53.9% 14ft-3pt.
But in his last 35 games, he averaged 16.8 points. 3.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game on 54.0% eFG and 56.7% TS, shooting 60.0% from 2pt and 32.4% from 3pt. He was shooting 69.3% at the rim, 51.7% within 4-14ft, and 58.0% 14ft-3pt.
What’s encouraging is the fact that he was still as efficient inside the arc. He was getting whatever he wanted there. Two things changed — his 3-point shooting and drives.
Here are his 3pt shootings stats to start the season vs the end:
Catch and shoot: 44.6% on 1.7(10% freq) vs 40.0% on 2.1(16%)
Pull-ups: 39.1% on 6.7(39%) vs 29.1% on 5.0(37%)
3pt off 3-6 dribbles: 36.5% on 2.2(13%) vs 30.8% on 1.5(11%)
3pt off 7+ dribbles: 39.8% on 2.7(16%) vs 25.0% on 1.6(12%)
He needs that dribble 3pt shooting to open everything up. That’s what makes him so dangerous. The biggest question was how much of it was just a small sample because both numbers were either very high or very low. Is he almost 40% off dribble on high volume?
The other change was his drive. He shot 59.9% on 14.7 drives but that dropped to shooting 53.4% on 9.6. This probably has a lot to do with the lower body injuries that killed the volume.
Getting a healthy Haliburton that was playing at the level to start the season will make their entire season so much easier. He was playing like a top-tier guard. For the season, he was fifth in offensive EPM with +6.3. He’s still only going to be 25 years old. This isn’t a finished product by any means.
In what ways can Haliburton look to improve his game? What can he add that will put him from a borderline All-NBA talent to a lock for second or a conversation in the first team? Is he going to improve his defense?
Moving on from offense, can their defense improve? That’s their next step in becoming a legit contender. There’s no team winning anything being a bottom 10 defense, let alone being in the bottom 5. In these three seasons, they were 24th, 26th, 28th. Since acquiring Siakam they improved to 22nd.
It’s encouraging that towards the end of the season they were getting better:
October: 110.6(3 games)
November: 122.2(14 games)
December: 121.0(14 games)
January: 117.9(17 games)
February: 115.6(12 games)
March: 113.4(15 games)
April: 115.7(7 games)
Can they get to at least average?
Can they improve in something? They were 18th in opponent TOV%. They were 25th in opponent ORB%. They fouled a lot. They were 30th in opponent free throw rate. They lead the league in fouls drawn with 21.1 per 100. They allow the 5th most second chance pts. There are areas that they can improve in somewhere. It doesn’t have to be a drastic change either.
They were 9th in opponent FG% at the rim, but they allow the most shots there. Teams are also feasting around the paint and they allow one of the most shots there too. On the other hand, they allowed the fewest corner 3s and they have the lowest opponent 3pt rate.
I’m not sure what’s going to improve or what should be a priority but something has to be.
A fun tidbit. Looking at their roster, with the size and length that they have across positions, it should be easy to improve in:
Haliburton: 6’5 with 6’7 wingspan
Nembhard: 6’3 with 6’6
Nesmith: 6’5 with 6’10
Mathurin: 6’4 with 6’9
Sheppard: 6’5 with 6’8
Jackson: 6’9 with 7’2
Walker: 6’6 with 7’2
Toppin: 6’9 with 7’2
Siakam: 6’8 with 7’3
Turner: 6’10 with 7’4
They should be better with the tools that they have!
This is what will likely determine how good they can become and what their ceiling will be in the playoffs.
Another big question is what happens with all of the young and young-ish players. How many of them can improve to establish themselves as key rotational players? How many can take significant jumps? How many of the proven players can continue to develop to make their offense even more historic or push their defense?
They still have Nembhard, Mathurin, Sheppard, Nesmith, Walker, Jackson and even Wiseman as the young players. Toppin is the oldest of the bunch at 26.
What do they have in Walker, who didn’t see much court in his rookie season? Similarly, what about Jackson? He’s a bench player that sees around 13 minutes per game. What’s the role for him?
How much improvement can both Sheppard and Nembhard see with them both already being in the rotation? Sheppard saw a boost in his 3-point shooting in the playoffs from 31% to 38%. Will that continue? Nembhard was a key piece in their run playing over 32 minutes per game as a starter — he is already 24, though, and now has inked an extension.
Nesmith has looked much better with the Pacers in these two seasons. He already saw significant jumps from his previous season. His 3-point shooting went from 36.6% to 41.9%. His 2-point shooting improved from 49.6% to 58.1%. And his defense was important in the playoffs.
One that I can see being an x-factor is Mathurin. He already had two seasons showing solid potential. His improvement as a shooter was important. He also already showed how easily he can attack and get downhill to draw fouls. But there are many areas that still needs a lot of work. For one, he has a career 8.5% assist percentage compared to his 11.3% turnover. He is only 22 heading into his third season.
Then there are the vets-ish in Toppin, Turner, and McConnell. Both McConnell and Toppin do their job. You know what you’re getting out of them.
One thing I want to see more of is McConnell getting more minutes period and more time with Haliburton. He’s arguably the best driver in basketball. His drives per 75 possessions are insane. He leads the league with 27.0 — this almost led everyone since 2014. Only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is ahead with 27.1.
Here’s a fun stat. With both McConnell and Haliburton, the Pacers are +15.9 in 220 minutes with a 131.0(!) offense!
Toppin is Toppin. He has clear strengths. He plays within the role. He’s good at it. He’s effective. He shoots 70% from 2pt, including 78% at the rim. He shoots 85% off cuts. He improved as a shooter to 40%. He has the athleticism. He has the size. He’s everything that the Pacers need.
I do wonder about Turner. He’s a solid big. He can protect the rim. He can somewhat space the floor, though, he’s a 35% shooter for his career on just 5 3s per 100. That has improved to 36% on 7 in the last three.
Something that stood out is his defensive impact dropping drastically:
I wonder if this is an area they could possibly look to improve in or get someone completely different.
That leads me to the final question. The team should be better than they were this year. They should see jumps and improvement from many of their players. They are on the right track.
But they’re not in the upper tier of contenders. So, what do they do or need to get to that stage? Where are the potential moves to be made to make that jump? This doesn’t have to be this year or be a must thing to do, but something to keep a note if things do click in the way it was last year.
Predictions
45-50 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): In the play in range
Ceiling(best case scenario): Top 3 seed
I like the Pacers going into the season. Last year, they were breaking out and also were dealing with some trades that had to be integrated in. Now, they’re coming off a conference finals appearance. They know what they have. They know what works. They know what needs to be addressed and what needs to be refined.
With a full season with the entire team and all of the potential improvements, it’s tough not to buy into this team.
I’m not sure where there is a sign of concern when it comes to their offense. There wasn’t anything that seemed unsustainable. It was led by anything that should drop to earth.
Even accounting for Haliburton’s drop off after the injury, since January 30th, they still had a 120.6 offense with him on in 1088 minutes. They shot 59% from 2pt and only 36% from 3pt. They don’t even need Haliburton to be shooting 40% off the dribble to be elite.
I’m curious about what Siakam is going to go look like. He was already having a great season with the Raptors. Again, he’s not a role player that they got in this trade. This is a legit All-NBA level player that they added that can still be maximized in a different way where we already saw working through the post be effective — It wouldn’t surprise me to see him actually make an All-NBA team.
The team is still pretty young with only a few players that are 30 or near it. That means there is still so much potential for everyone to get better. That doesn’t mean getting better to star level, but if many can add just something new and develop their strengths better, this can be a deep team.
Also, a fun stat, their offense without Haliburton was 118.8. That would rank 6th in the league. This isn’t a team that’s overly reliant on their stars.
Overall, I can see them being a top 3 team with their offense being as elite as it was and if they crawl slightly from being a bottom 10 defense. If they have health, then there are not many reasons why they won’t be in that race. But I can also see them be within the play-in range, though, that would mostly have to do with everyone else being so close that it would be separated by a handful of games.