Let’s Get Ready for the Miami Heat 2025-26 Season

A quick thoughts and discussion on the upcoming Miami Heat season

We’re finally here. We are ready for a Miami Heat adventure. For the first time in six years, this is going to be a very different team with different expectations. And one big reason for that is they’re starting the season with no Jimmy Butler.

Without bringing up a lot of what happened last season, it is worth noting that this is a big change. However it ended, Butler changed the trajectory of this team over the past six years. Even in the years they underperformed, you still had a top fifteen caliber player, especially in the playoffs. The expectations were different. There were reasons to fear the zombie Heat.

That’s all gone. Without Butler, the Heat transition into a different era, and that’s where we’re starting this season.

The new era kind of was showing post deadline last year, where they did go more into their young players and were led entirely by Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. They, once again, managed to sneak into the playoffs via the play-in, but had a rather disappointing short trip in the playoffs — calling it disappointing is also an understatement; that was horrendous.

Come the off-season, they did make one solid move that I actually liked a lot. Getting Norman Powell for essentially nothing was the biggest win in the offseason. It didn’t cost you anything, but it still gets you a player that can be effective without making it all about him or requiring major changes. Having those kinds of players helps whatever the goal is — whether that’s develop, compete, or a mixture of both.

One other addition was the rookie, Kasparas Jakucionis, whom I’m excited to see. If I remember correctly, he was meant to be a much higher pick earlier last year, but continued to drop. That’s a good pick to bank on higher upside.

Outside of that, this team is going to be the same team we’ve seen at the end of the playoffs. Everything going into this season is banking on internal growth and development.

So, let’s just go through some of the things to look forward to, watch out for, predictions, and any other thoughts for this season.

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I want to start with what the goal for this season should be.

This season should be all about development, pushing your young players to grow in different areas, tinker with all kinds of rotations to see what you have in each player, and be smart when considering what should be the long term goal for the team.

I don’t believe this is a contender by any means. I don’t think they should be looking to make the playoffs. I also don’t want them to deliberately tank. But at the same time, I also wouldn’t want them to make decisions based on what gives them a better chance to win.

By that I mean, not prioritising certain veterans who may be better or more suited in certain roles over letting the young players play through their mistakes. If they compete with their young players, so be it.

I wouldn’t want anyone to be overly emphasised or have something revolve around a player because I don’t believe there is anyone on the roster that would warrant that, certainly not anyone above the age of twenty seven. If you’re closer to thirty, they shouldn’t be pushed into being the focal point.

No one should be the focal point.

It should be experimenting with everything and anything and constantly changing and evolving as the season goes on, with the veterans helping to maximise that — i.e. Powell helping that with spacing.

Off the court, this is wishful thinking, but I would want them to sell at the deadline. This isn’t a team that is going to compete, and it’s foolish to believe you may even have a puncher’s chance at anything — even if they realistically have what it takes to win a playoff round, what’s the point?

Ideally, players like Powell, Andrew Wiggins, and Terry Rozier aren’t on the team. In a perfect world, Powell does get flipped to a contender for picks or young players. That to me should be a must, considering where the team is.

When it comes to the top players in Bam Adebayo and Herro, I don’t know how to feel about this because it is likely a very different view from what the Heat believes. I don’t think either player should be safe on the team. At this point, I don’t think there’s anything that you could do in terms of role change or development that would change anything. I think at this point, for the right price, they should be part of the group when considering selling.

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Staying on those two, I just don’t know what else there is to see about them. I think for the most part, we know what they are.

There are things both players could improve in, but in terms of their ceiling, I find it tough to believe there’s more to unlock, whether that’s because of physical limitations or just how they’ve developed the last few years.

We did see Herro make a jump last year, and that was an impressive feat to make the All-Star game. But the issues with his role, his flaws, and limitations that are around him when it comes to being the primary ball handler are still there.

I do wonder how this season plays out for him because this will now be teams gearing up for him and him only. He’s the best on-ball player on the team now.

With Adebayo, I don’t know what else can be said about his offensive game. The same points have been rehashed each season. He had one of his worst starts of his career. And even as the season went on, there were many red flags showing up. I really have no idea about his potential development at his point or how he should be used offensively given what he’s shown the last few years.

But combined with their contract situation, I’m struggling to find a reason why this shouldn’t be the beginning of the end for this core this season.

Some may call this too negative, but this does happen with so many teams, even at this age. More often than not, the ceiling for a duo like this gets recognised quickly, and not everyone will have their breakouts later in their career. A lot of the times, the core hits their ceiling soon.

That’s kind of what makes it tough to buy into the season, knowing that the core’s ceiling may be just this. It feels like the Toronto Raptors, Sacramento Kings, or Utah Jazz in the past.

To be blunt, this season isn’t about either Adebayo or Herro to me.

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What this season is about is all the young players potentially. There’s Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic, and Kasparas Jakucionis that I’m probably more excited and intrigued to see this season.

I don’t know what the ceiling or potential is for either player, but that’s where you have these kinds of seasons to find out. Those three players should be more of a focus because that is the stage that this team is at.

They need to hit on a player reaching a higher ceiling or even develop into high-quality starters. They don’t need to be top fifteen superstars, but if they can continue to develop into highly impactful players, that’s a big win in itself.

I think Jovic has the highest upside here, especially offensively. I’d want to see more of Jovic being used in various ways.

No. This isn’t a case for point Niko because I don’t think pushing players into creator roles is always the right thing, especially early on. But I want it to be higher. I want it to be diverse and see where he plays better or what he’s more suited for.

With Ware, I want to see a lot of improvements, brushing up on stuff from his rookie season. Understandably so, he did struggle in many areas. He was a rookie. That’s nothing against him. That’s not a sign of anything bad. But he wasn’t highly impactful. I want to see jumps in those areas. I don’t want to see those same mistakes constantly being made because he’s no longer a rookie.

Rookies, to me, get a very different treatment, and any criticism is a lot more lenient. But once that sophomore year starts, I’d also expect those red flags from the first year to disappear. It also doesn’t mean he needs to exceed expectations. Development isn’t linear, so I don’t expect big leaps — just small jumps in areas of improvement.

That’s why with Jakucionis, he has all the free rein to do whatever. I want to see him experimenting the most. I already liked a lot with his passing and IQ, and on defense, too.

Then, there’s the rest of the young-ish players in Jaime Jaquez Jr and Pelle Larsson. I think with both of them, you also have seen what you’d mostly get. I’m still hoping for gradual improvements in some of their most needed areas to improve, particularly with both of their shooting. That’s their swing skill that I need to see be much better.

I do like them as glue guys. Larsson has already shown a lot in that area, and I think he can grow into that role.

I was high on Jaquez, and I’m still a believer. Players don’t forget the easy stuff they were doing. Even in his down year, there were still signs that he could be effective in the right role.

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We have the rest of the veterans.

I already mentioned Powell. I do love his game, and I think he’s going to be as effective as he has been in his career. I don’t expect major changes in his game or role, even with Herro out. There may be some increase in his on-ball creation, but not to a drastic difference.

I’m hoping that’s the case. I assumed the same with Wiggins, and that turned out to be entirely wrong.

But with Powell, he has been that all his career. He’s been a deadly shooter and has been expanding his game as the seasons have gone on. But he’s also now thirty-two. Age is a big factor in how much and in what ways I’d want him to be emphasised in the system.

Now, with Wiggins. Unfortunately, I’m as out on a player on this team as I can be. I didn’t like his offensive game at all in his short time with the Heat so far. I assumed he was going to be an uber-charged Haywood Highsmith.

I wasn’t expecting Timberwolves Wiggins eating up so many on-ball roles that was basically the same, or at times, more than both Adebayo or Herro. He should never be the focal point of an offense that relies on him creating his shot.

I genuinely don’t see a reason for that. That’s not a good thing if the Heat simply want to compete for the playoffs, nor is it good if they want to develop players. There’s no upside for this whatsoever.

Terry Rozier. Oh, Rozier. The bar is in hell, so I’ll take any kind of positive play from him. He can only go up from here.

I’m also excited to watch Davion Mitchell. I do like that they re-signed him. I enjoyed his game a lot with the Heat. There’s not a lot to say about him. He brings defense. He helps the team in many ways. He’s still young enough to be part of the core. He’s on a good deal. He doesn’t take away from anyone. He’s the kind of role player that are needed on this team.

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With all this said, I’m still not entirely checked into this team because until I see it, I already think I know what the direction of the team is going to be and what that’s going to include.

It will likely be emphasising both Wiggins and Powell to win games. It will add more to their plates. It will still have Adebayo play his usual offensive game as he has done. It will be a lot of Herro-ball.

They may say it’s about development, but until I see that change, it’s tough to look forward to anything. Like, honestly, why would I care about a bunch of thirty-year-olds who will play when they shouldn’t care about anything other than young players’ growth?

Everything with the Heat’s goals is to what end?

Because even with Herro or Adebayo, I don’t see a future with them two as the top two players on this team. This duo should also be broken up this season.

This isn’t a team to me like the Detroit Pistons, where you have high-potential ceiling players while developing a young core that can win with a mix of veterans. This is mostly the opposite, with more solid enough veteran players but not high ceiling surrounded by young players that also, at the moment, haven’t shown star potential to take over the core.

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Now, some predictions.

I see this team as a 35-42 win team. I do expect this team to be better than last season. A lot of that is blind faith in Spoelstra.

Yes, he had a bad season or two. But at this point, he has earned one of the biggest benefits of the doubt. This is the same way I felt with Butler in the past. I will bank on Spoelstra turning things around and doing his magic.

That alone gives me faith for even a sixth seed.

There’s been far too much talk on Twitter about potentially moving on from him. He’s been the best coach in basketball for a while, and I will continue to trust him to change, adapt, and make things work one way or the other.

The East being the way it is, I can see this team landing anywhere between the sixth seed and out of the play-in entirely. It’s a wild range, but the Heat are in the same tier as the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, and Boston Celtics.

There are only three teams that are clearly above, and that’s the Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets. That’s it

That leaves seeds twelve through five basically up for grabs, which will depend on health and weird season luck. It wouldn’t surprise me if the wins are so close that they might be a win or two away from being a lock for the playoffs or having another play-in battle with the Bulls.

But seeding and record don’t matter as much to me.

I want to see improvement in their offense. Per Cleaning the Glass, their offensive rating was 21st, 21st, and 25th. That needs to change. They will continue to be mid if they have a bottom ten offense. Something has to change, and I don’t believe this is just a lack of talent. That definitely is a factor that hinders them. There’s only so much that you can do.

But that just means you need to win in the margins elsewhere, and that’s where I think they, and mostly Spoelstra, have been disappointing. If you’re lacking a creator, there are ways to offset that. You can be better on the glass — The Heat have been bottom five the last two years. You can get out in transition and have a higher pace. There’s still a lot that you can do in changing your approach, especially when Spoelstra has had a history of making an offense work with subpar talent.

That’s what’s frustrating. The Heat have done more with less before.

Now, to finish up, here are some quick points, takes, and tidbits:

• We’ll still see Ware-Adebayo lineups, but not used as much as last year

• I’m wary about their defense. They have changed their approach to make things work with the personnel, but that has been slipping. Their defense isn’t as good as the raw DRTG tells you

• I’m very curious, then, what their approach to defense is going to be

• Jakucionis will finish top three in ROTY

• Powell will continue to have the same kind of season, if not better, but I do think there will be an increase in on-ball creation that may drag some of the efficiency numbers overall

• Unfortunately, I think we’ll continue to see Wiggins be put in a role as he was in Minnesota

• I need to see a complete change in Adebayo’s approach offensively. The offense the last three years, mainly with his shot diet and decision making, has been ugh

• Rozier will have a much better season and will actually help the team

• Jaquez will have a bounce back season

• Both Powell and Herro should be on the market by the deadline

• Wiggins shouldn’t be on the team by the deadline. Period

• I have no faith in them playing faster until they do. I am NOT getting fooled again

• I wonder what the approach offensively is going to be without Herro to start the season

• Herro’s season is going to be interesting, considering the jump that he had last year in various areas. This will also be his first season with Butler, which is a story in itself

• They will, once again, be a top five defensive rebounding team. Contrary to belief, they haven’t been bad on the glass

• The starters on opening night: Mitchell-Powell-Wiggins-Jovic-Adebayo

• The starters with everyone healthy: Herro-Powell-Wiggins-Jovic-Adebayo

• I do hope that they sell at the deadline for something. I don’t even know what other moves they could make outside of selling

• Final record prediction: 40-42, seventh seed. Make the playoffs and lose in the first round