Los Angeles Clippers 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-season Recap
Something always goes wrong for the Los Angeles Clippers. Maybe outside of their first season in 2020, they dealt with something. That something was almost always an injury to their top players and that derailed their season.
Funny enough, this season was their best season since 2021 when they had a 65% win rate, compared to 62% this year. Things were looking much better compared to the previous two.
Like, for god’s sake, they had their three best players playing at least 68 games! This was their games played this year:
Kawhi Leonard: 68
James Harden: 72
Paul George: 74
Ivica Zubac: 68
Norman Powell: 76
Terance Mann: 75
Russell Westbrook: 68
This was as good of a season as you can get in terms of health.
To start the year, they also made a trade for Harden very early on. You can’t make the chemistry argument either. The team was also great with all three on: +9.7 net in 1260 minutes with a 123.1 offensive rating! Even if you just include the overall minutes in their games played where they went 37-19 with a +4.0 net. This was a very good team, especially on the offensive end.
Their season was cut short with their loss to the Dallas Mavericks in six games. That whole series was in the mud with the Clippers having a 100.3 offensive rating
A big reason for that was Leonard only played two games. Who could’ve predicted that their season was going to end with one of their top players not even playing half of the series? It was worse than it should’ve been with George being a no-show either. Surprisingly, Harden had a pretty good series and was a big reason why this went six in the first place.
Now, heading into the off-season they already had the questions surrounding George’s extension and Harden’s free agency.
They got Harden back, which they 100% had to bring back. It would’ve been almost catastrophic if they didn’t, considering they traded for him.
And how they ended up losing George for nothing. That was surprising. The whole Leonard-George era came to an end. That feels weird to say about what it actually accomplished.
Still, they managed to make the most of it. You’re likely not going to replace an All-Star player, especially with what George gave them. Getting Derrick Jones Jr, and Kris Dunn, and bringing back Nicolas Batum is a good way to try.
Season Preview
So, what’s in store for the Clippers?
Are they too old for 82 games?
Will they stay healthy again?
Is both Leonard and Harden enough at this point in their career?
Can they fill the George size gap somehow?
Can Leonard continue his dominance whenever he plays?
What’s Harden’s style of playing going to be being the second-best player?
Can they bounce back defensively?
Who’s going to take the next step as their third-best player?
Do they have any potential moves up their sleeves?
The first point, even if George stayed, is whether they are getting too old for an 82-game grind. Can they even be as healthy as they were again? They’re overly reliant on two players who either have diminished because of health and age and another who is inconsistent in staying healthy and has again ended the season on a bad note.
They both had elite-level seasons.
Leonard was All-NBA and averaged 25.6 points per 75 possessions on 58.5% eFG and 62.6% TS shooting 56.9% from 2pt and 41.7% from 3pt. He was ninth in EPM(George was just ahead at eighth).
Harden, though in a very different role, still was highly effective. His usage went down significantly. He had his lowest usage since his second season with 20.6%.
But that’s just usage, he still dominated the ball. He averaged over 75 touches, with both Leonard and George hovering around mid-50s. His time of possession was 6.8, with George and Leonard at 3.3. He held the ball and pounded with 5.39 average seconds and 4.8 average dribble. Even at this stage of his career, he’s doing a lot.
Is it reasonable to expect him to do that still?
Now, this would also be different too. There won’t be George eating up those possessions. That was a very efficient, capable player of doing what’s necessary. That responsibility will fall on someone else.
We have seen a decline in his scoring ability. He doesn’t have the same, consistent burst to the rim. He took the lowest percentage of his shots at the rim with 17.4% in his career! He still converts where he gets there but without that higher volume and also a decline in foul drawing, that matters a lot. He doesn’t have a good in-between game. He shot 38.2% with 4-14ft. As a result, his 3pt rate skyrocketed to 59.4%, a career right.
That includes Leonard too. He hasn’t been that kind of high-touch, ball-dominant guy for a while. Is he going to be more on-ball with more responsibility? He hasn’t shown much decline in what he does. Everything with his shot profile, drives, and efficiency is either within range or even the best in a while. The only thing that matters is the consistency and how he’s going to get those points. He saw 45.1% of his 2s assisted, which is the highest since 2014.
Can either of them sustain a quality level of play through 82 games, if they’re healthy? I’m not sure how realistic that is, given the change of role could mean more energy being used.
Update after the Leonard news
It has now been reported that he had a knee injury and at the moment, it’s about strengthening it. This is news right before training camp. We haven’t started playing basketball and there are already questions about his health.
This complicates things for the team already. As written above, I had significant concerns before the news broke out. What if this holds him out? What if he doesn’t start the season? This has an effect on a few things.
This will mean they are now without both George and Leonard. There was that former hole needing to be filled and that potentially would’ve been more load on Harden and Leonard. But if Leonard isn’t there, who else do they have? Is this relying on Harden to carry even more?
And throughout the season, it will take time for him to get into game shape and get back to 100%. Even if that does happen, will his health remain consistent?
The rest of the team isn’t that much younger either, and the ones that are, aren’t ones that would make a significant difference.
With their age considered, their defense worries me. In their first three seasons, they were fifth, eighth, and seventh on defense. They were 18th and 14th in the last two seasons. I mentioned age because their defense drops off as the season goes on:
October: 102.2
November: 112.9
December: 116.8
January: 114.2
February: 119.1
March: 117.8
April: 107.8
I’m less worried about their offense but their defense can be what decides their season.
The biggest question is what happens with the George-sized hole that’s left. There aren’t a lot of big wings that can shoot over 40% on high volume from 3pt — he shot 40% on over 11 3s per 100 with the Clippers. That skill alone is irreplaceable and that’s not looking at everything else he provided.
With George on, the Clippers were +8.9 in 2502 minutes with a 122.7 ORTG. That dropped to -6.4 in 1439 minutes with a 112.7 ORTG. Even when you include both Leonard and Harden, they were -1.5 in 357 minutes with a 114.9 ORTG. Not a big sample, but that’s a worry in itself. They haven’t dealt with a bunch of non-George lineups.
Is Jones Jr going to do that? He gives them defense but he’s a huge downgrade defensively. Is it relying on Batum to provide that spacing? He has been a great shooter on high volume for them before — 40% on over 8 3s per 100 from 2021 to 2023.
I’m also thinking about what the rotations even are. Who’s actually replacing George in that lineup? And off the bench, are you staggering that either Leonard or Harden are on the court at all times because who else is the ball handler? Is it Dunn? Mann? Kevin Porter Jr? Bones Hyland?
I’m not feeling confident about them.
One interesting question will be about Zubac. I’ve been seeing a lot about him and potentially having a bigger role. Is that also the player that makes sense to play through more? But what other options do they have? Will he end up being the third-best player?
Even come playoff time, I’m having trouble seeing good reasons to feel good about them. As bad as George has been at times in the playoffs, you need that level of talent there. Now, it’s relying on Harden and Leonard to carry even more.
Prediction
43-48 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): A play-in team dealing with injuries
Ceiling(best case scenario): 5th seed that is somewhat healthy
I’m not that high on this team in the regular season or the playoffs, though the confidence is higher in the playoffs with Leonard.
Both Leonard and Harden will see a different role on offense with perhaps a higher usage and I’m not sure how to feel about that
How much of their effectiveness at their age was because of the role they were in? There’s already been a decline with Harden and he found ways to still be effective in this role where he doesn’t have to dominate as a scorer. Similar to Leonard, he’s been effective but how much is that because he hasn’t been on the ball as much?
One of them will have to change because are you putting that responsibility on Powell? Mann? Hyland? That’s another thing, I don’t see anyone else stepping up, even as a collection, to make up for George’s loss.
That offense will take a dip and I’m not that big of a believer that they will suddenly be better defensively through 82 games.
Overall, they got worse. There’s going to be a lot of banking on both Harden and Leonard to carry more than they have and also remain healthy. Right now, I see them around the 6th-8th range.