Los Angeles Lakers 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-season Recap
From conference finals to losing in the first round for the Los Angeles Lakers. This was a disappointing year for them, not even just looking at the final result. After the turnaround they had last year, I was expecting a lot more from them this year.
They got 76 games from Anthony Davis, 71 games from LeBron James, 76 games from D’Angelo Russell, and 82 games from Austin Reaves. That’s all of your top players playing so many games. You’re likely not getting much better health than that.
And yet, with all of that said they were still eighth in the West and had to go through the play-in again. This time, they didn’t get the right matchup and that is the difference between a deep run or a first-round exit.
Maybe health wasn’t an issue for them. You might think so, considering last year, they were in a similar place but then Davis played 56 games and James played 55. Plus there were all of the trades happening that affected rotations and chemistry that had to be factored in. That’s where you could talk yourself into the Lakers being better this year — that was where I talked myself into them before the season.
Last year, post-All-Star break, the Lakers were +18.2 with both James and Davis on. But that was a very small sample size of 223 minutes.
This year in 1726 minutes with both on, they were +3.8 with a 119.8 offensive rating. Add Reaves to that, in 1288 minutes, it drops to 1.6 with a slightly better offense at 120.4.
In my last year’s preview, I said I liked a lot about the team. I liked that they had many good pieces that could round this team out. It doesn’t look like it panned out that way. I wondered whether they could have a top-5 defense — they were 16th, worse than last year. Even with Davis on, they weren’t that much better where it was 115.6(would rank 14th).
One of the biggest questions was about James and his potential decline. Well, he answered that by being more efficient in every part of the court — somehow he had the highest TS% since 2014.
Their off-season was a bunch of nothing, in terms of player movement. They drafted Dalton Knecht and Bronny James. They hired JJ Redick. Maybe the coaching change will turn this team around.
But right now, their off-season was a failure.
Season Preview
So, what’s in store for the Lakers:
When is the year that will see James decline?
Will Davis continue his elite play on both ends of the floor and remain healthy?
Can they at least be average defensively?
Do they have enough depth at the wing and bigs position?
How much more can Reaves improve?
Can they be healthy beyond their best players?
Which role players can be relied on consistently?
Will Knecht provide something in his rookie season?
What moves can Pelinka make?
Will or should D’Angelo Russell be on this team post-deadline?
How much of a change will Redick bring?
Is this the year for them before potentially making drastic moves?
As with any contending team, it starts with the best players at the top. This was a question last year and it’s going to be the question this year because it has to come at some point.
HOW LONG CAN JAMES KEEP THIS UP?
Insert your usual “he can’t keep getting away with this” meme because how is he getting older but somehow manages to have bounce-back seasons? It doesn’t make sense. You think you see some declines and that will mean he’s going to continue to do so and may even compound quickly, too. But then he turns around and has career years in some areas.
I’m looking at some of his stats this year compared to his recent stretch past the bubble and there are signs of some decline here and there, particularly with the rim pressure and consistency.
This year, he shot 73% at the rim with 43% of his shots there. That frequency is the highest since 2018. His free throw rate is the highest since 2019.
The Lakers offense was 120.0 with him on and that dropped to 110.9 without him. That’s the best on/off on offense since 2018. He still has that level of impact. He ranked seventh in EPM at +5.9, which by his standard is one of the lowest, but compared to everyone, it’s still above almost everyone.
One thing that has dropped is the usage. The usage reached sub-30 % for the first time since his second season. His tracking stats are also all down or the lowest since 2014 — his touches per 75 and total offensive load. But they are low compared to him. 49% total offensive load is the lowest for him, but that ranks 10th in the league.
Can he keep that up? I’m just going to assume right now that he will. That’s the easiest thing about previewing the Lakers. Even if we see another slight drop-off, I doubt it’s going to be a decline that has him considerably low compared to the league.
When it comes to the other top player, that’s a different story. Davis just played the most games in his career. Yep. Not only did he play the most games, he also played the most minutes per game since 2018, when he was 24.
I’m not sure if I’m going to bank on that, especially after playing in the Olympics being 31 years old, and having a long list of injuries.
When it comes to his on-court play, we know what we’re getting from him. After his two seasons in 2021 and 2022 struggling with efficiency, these last two seasons offensively from him were one of the best.
It’s good to see that bounce back. On the other hand, he did have one of the worst defensive metrics:
I have Davis as one of the three best defenders in basketball, but it is interesting that the Lakers’ defense with him on isn’t as elite, nor does it fall off drastically without him. Here is the Lakers’ defense with him on vs off:
2024: 115.6 vs 116.6
2023: 111.8 vs 117.0
2022: 111.0 vs 116.0
There’s a lot that goes into it and team construction matters too, but I’d expect a top 5 player to raise the ceiling a bit more than this. The Lakers being average defensively was one of the reasons they struggled.
That’s going to be one of the biggest questions when it comes to their success. Can they have a top-10 defense? That has been their way of winning in 2020(had the 4th best defense), 2021(2nd best), and when they made the run last year.
With that, I think it also comes down to the rest of the team. Will they have a solid rotation of wings or bigs? Last year, it was just Davis and Jaxon Hayes. Wood was injured. Vanderbilt was injured. Will those two coming back and maybe Rui Hachimura be enough in the frontcourt?
The Lakers were 27th in opponent rim percentage with 68.2%. They were 7th in the frequency allowed, though.
I also wonder what the team is beyond James and Davis. Who do they have you can 100% rely on consistently on either end of the floor? The only player that comes to mind is Reaves.
He had a great season. 17.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per 75 possessions on 56.8% eFG and 61.3% TS with a 20.3% usage. Before you say that this is all created for him, only 41% of his 2s and 67% of his 3s are assisted.
Even without James on the court, he averaged 20.7 points on 57.9% eFG and 61.8% TS with 23.5% usage. His assisted 2s went down to 29%. His efficiency around the rim and the paint is impressive — shooting 66% at the rim and 50% within 4-14ft. That’s all without James. Take away Russell too, and the stats remain similar as the only ball handler. His assisted shots go down even more but still has over 60% TS and his usage went up to nearly 26%. Oh, and he averages over 7 assists per 75.
Here’s a fun stat! He averaged 1.05 points per possession on 5.2 possessions as the ball handler in the PNR. He shot 51.8% from the floor and had a 59.0% eFG. That ranked in the 90th percentile. That was similar to last year too where he averaged 1.08 on 2.8. He doubled his volume and sustained that efficiency. That’s the most impressive part.
His passing is going to have to improve a lot if that’s the role he’s going to play in. This is compared to on-ball players. That’s not going to be good enough.
If there is a player that has the best chance to take the next step on offense to make life easier and elevate the team alongside James, it’s Reaves. His continued growth is going to be key for this season.
One question or hope is for him to bounce off the ball. He shot 40.3% on 2.5(32% of his shots) catch-and-shoot 3s in 2023. That dropped to 36.7% on 3.0(26.7%).
What about the rest of the team? Who else is there that they can rely on something consistently? Is that Hachimura? Cam Reddish? Wood?
There’s still Russell, who shot 41.5% on over 10 3s per 100 possession. He has been above average efficiency two years in a row. That’s a good answer for that. But I also wonder if they should explore seeing what they could get for him.
At the same time, they have been successful with him. Some lineup stats:
Reaves/James/Davis, no Russell: -2.1 in 513 minutes with a 120.9 ORTG
Russell/James/Davis, no Reaves: +8.2 in 360 with a 115.0 ORTG
Russell on, Reaves off: +6.9 in 1082 with a 119.6 ORTG
Reaves on, Russell off: -2.6 in 1227 with a 114.2 ORTG
Reaves/Russell on: +0.0 in 1402 with 119.1 ORTG
Maybe, I got ahead of myself. Maybe they shouldn’t explore trading him. Maybe this is all just a matter of fit and working things that make sense on both ends of the floor.
That leads to Redick. That’s the potential x-factor here. It’s not only a new coach, it’s a coach with no experience. This is going to be interesting — probably the most interesting part of their season.
What kind of changes will Redick bring? How successful is he going to be as a first time head coach? Will it go down similar to what happened with Steve Nash? Will he quite analytical in his approach?
There’s so many questions when it comes to Redick. Coaching matters and that’s why he can potentially swing a lot here. There is talent on this team on both ends. That’s where a coach can make a significant difference, especially when there’s already a good core that proved that it can reach high levels.
His approach and how he goes about handling his first season as a coach will be one of the most important questions that make this a successful season or a disaster.
Related to non-players question marks, will Pelinka do something? Are the Lakers done making moves? What moves can they even do? They need to do something. It’s tough to argue against that when they were a play-in team with their best players playing.
How they will go about their season at the deadline will be a must follow.
One fun thing to watch out for this year is going to be Knecht. It’s been said that he’s the most ready made scorer in the draft being 23 years old. He should be able to provide some offensive impact right away. We’ve seen older rookies come in and be impactful right away and ones that are coming in already with skillset that does translate, it’s not unreasonable to believe he can play a big role.
Finally, is this the year to make all of this work? There’s only so many times that you can simply bank on James being James even with him showing that father time doesn’t apply to him. This could be the last season they have to make all of this work. Do they realise that and push all the chips in for one last dance? Or will they be content with making some moves and hope it works out?
Prediction
42-46 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): Lock in for the play in, James and Davis have health issues, but still manage to be good enough to sneak in
Ceiling(best case scenario): A top 5 team, defense bounces back, Reaves takes a leap and they set themselves up for a potential deep run
Last year, I was a lot higher on them because of the health issues that they faced and how they looked post-deadline. Maybe this is overreacting myself but I’ll hold on to being this high again.
They were healthy this year and still looked like this. They were still a play-in team that was below average defensively. They still couldn’t survive without James(they were -5.3 without him).
I also don’t envision them having this kind of injury and health luck to all of their main pieces. It’s more likely than not that they won’t see multiple players play 65+ games.
At the same time, they still have James playing at an elite level(even if it’s lower compared to his standards). They have a top 5 defender in the world. They have guards that can swing things in both Russell and Reaves, plus they are hopeful that Reaves takes a step forward. They have returning players that should have an impact.
Then there’s bringing in Redick which will matter a lot. That’s what can swing things for me. That and potential moves to flip some pieces in the way they did in 2023.
Although I’m going to be lower than I was last year, they still have James. That alone shifts everything and I will never say any team is out whether in the regular season or the playoffs if he’s on the team.
That’s why, I’m predicting a similar season that they had now. As much as I said Redick can swing things, I think that’s going to matter more in the playoffs. In the regular season, I don’t expect things to be any different. They’re not going to be terrible. They’re not going to be dominant. They’re going to be okay.
In the playoffs, that’s when I can see them go on a deep run against the right matchup. That’s where James, Davis, and Redick come in.
Overall, their season will depend on the playoffs. There’s not much they can prove in the regular season.