Memphis Grizzlies 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
This wasn’t what the season should’ve been for the Memphis Grizzlies. Before the season, I had them as second in the West, even considering the suspension that Ja Morant was facing. I thought they were still deep enough to deal with the absence.
But everything else was going wrong for them. Steven Adams missed the entire season, which changed a lot. They traded for Marcus Smart, who played only 20 games. Their second-best player, Desmond Bane missed half the season. Jaren Jackson Jr leads the team with 66 games.
They had 33 different players suit up at least three times, 20 players play at least 15, 13 players play at least 30, and only five players play at least 50. This was as injury-riddled of a season as you can get.
Their three top players played nine games together where they went 6-3. Jackson and Bane played 41 games where they went 13-28. You’d probably want that to be a bit better. On the other hand, these were the total minutes played in those games:
Bane: 1404
Jackson: 1295
Santi Aldama: 828
David Roddy: 706
Bismack Biyombo: 676
Ziaire Williams: 628
Marcus Smart: 584
Vince Williams Jr: 559
John Konchar: 541
It was going to be tough winning those games.
There were a few positives. GG Jackson had a solid season as a 19-year-old rookie. He had a great stretch to end the season as a starter in 16 games. Bane got reps as the best guy on offense. His stats remained similar when it comes to volume and efficiency but that’s also a good sign considering he was in a different situation. Not sure how to feel about Jackson Jr, though with his drop-offs across the board.
With their off-season, they had a quiet one. They drafted Zach Edey, which is going to be one of their biggest questions. They retained Luke Kennard. But outside of that, they’re running it back, which makes sense.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Grizzlies:
Can they bounce back seamlessly to how they were before this season?
How good offensively can they be, particularly in the half-court?
What can we even expect from Morant?
How much will Edey be a factor and how impactful can he be?
Both Jackson Jr and Bane getting put back in their ideal role
Can the young players continue to develop and be impactful on a good team?
What will the three-guard lineup look like?
Will they go back to an elite defense?
It’s a season of seeing what they have and what they’ll need
So, the Grizzlies were a really good team in the two seasons prior. They won 56 and 51 games. They were fourth and third in net rating. This was already a good enough core to compete and go on deep runs.
The first question is can they seamlessly bounce back to that with everyone else getting better? Is this going to be business as usual where it’s as simple as getting Morant back and everyone healthy, and now we’re a top-five team in the West again? Or is it more complicated than that?
One big loss that I haven’t seen get talked about as much is Adams. He was so important for them., particularly on the offensive end. Here’s their offense with him on and off:
2023: 120.9 on / 114.1 off
2022: 120.4 / 111.3
They were +9.8 and +8.3 with him on and +1.8 and +3.4 without him. That’s going to matter. That’s one significant difference that needs to be accounted for when thinking about who’s coming back this year.
Although, with both Morant and Jackson on, even without Adams in those two seasons, the Grizzlies were +13.6 with a 118.5 offense. There are signs that it shouldn’t be that big of a change.
But a lot of that comes from the offensive rebounding. The Grizzlies were winning the possession battle. In 2023, they were sixth in TOV%, fifth in ORB%, and seventh in opponent TOV%. That’s how they were able to push their offense upwards, considering they were 19th and 22nd in those two seasons in eFG%.
One way that will be made easier is by simply having Morant on the court. He was already trending upwards in many metrics and stats. He was a clear All-Star player. He was All-NBA caliber and is still improving.
These are some talent metrics compared to other on-ball players, per BBall-Index.
He was already one of the elite players offensively. Even if you just inserted this version of Morant, they will already be a top-five team in the West. But that likely won’t be the case. He should get better. This should be another year of Morant taking a jump in one area or the other. This whole year made me forget about Morant’s place in the league.
With him coming back, that will also mean both Bane and Jackson Jr being in the right role.
Take a look at some of Bane’s tracking stats:
This was the most that he spent on-ball. Those jumps are quite significant, too. He took a jump in touches by over 10. He dribbled the ball more. He was used in different actions. His PNR freq jumped from 17% to 29%(his efficiency improved too). His isolation almost doubled too.
And he still had a solid season. Here are some stats in 2023 vs 2024:
Points per 75: 24.2 → 25.0
eFG: 56.7% → 55.2%
TS: 60.3% → 58.1%
2pt: 53.4% → 53.6%
2pt assisted: 52.1% → 40.3%
3pt: 40.8% → 38.0%
3pt assisted: 72.9% → 61.3%
Rim FG%: 61.3% → 68.5%
Rim freq: 27.8% → 25.4%
Rim assisted: 53.7% → 37.0%
These are all signs of improvement in a tough role. He was more on-ball. He had less offensive help. He still saw jumps in certain areas.
How much of that will carry on alongside Morant? This development is still going to be important for him going forward. But that role is going to change.
This was similar to Jackson Jr too:
Though, he didn’t have the same kind of jumps and improvement as Bane did. His efficiency and impact fell off the cliff:
TS: 61.3% → 55.2%
eFG: 56.7% → 49.4%
2pt: 58.5% → 50.1%
3pt: 35.5% → 32.0%
O-EPM: +1.9 → -0.2
He will be the player who benefits the most from having a complete team. With him being in the better place offensively, that should also show up on defense.
They were the second-best defense in 2023 and fifth in 2022. They will have to bounce back to those levels — they were 13th this year.
Related to all of that will be how much of a factor will Edey play. He can be the x-factor on this team if everything goes well for him.
Jackson Jr needs to have that kind of big next to him to be in the best position defensively. And without Adams, someone needs to be that big.
That’s where Edey comes in. Can he be a serviceable big defensively in drop? Can he not be a liability? Without him, you’d be asking a lot more from Jackson Jr, that may not be his strength.
I don’t think that will be as big of an issue through 82 games. Based on what I’ve seen from draft experts say about Edey, he should be good enough as a drop defender to give them a significant boost. Will he be a good enough rim protector?
With his big body and rim protection, Williams Jr, and Jackson Jr, that could be enough for another elite defensive season for them.
But I wonder what that is going to be like in the playoffs. Those kinds of bigs have generally been hunted and made less effective. That could make it more difficult to accommodate.
On the offensive end, I will want to see how effective that Morant-Edey PNR is going to be. Can he also be an offensive rebounding monster? Crashing the glass was important for the Grizzlies. I also wonder if he’s going to have a bigger role offensively. Can he even have a bigger role?
There’s also the addition of Smart in all of this. He only played 20 games and I forgot he’s on the team. How will that work? Are they going to start Morant-Bane-Smart? Is that the vision? Will that work on either end of the floor?
He’s not exactly a perfect fit offensively and that’s already a team that had to make up some of that in the possession battle.
How much of their young players and role players will have an impact? Jackson and Williams Jr had solid stretches and showed flashes. But they’re going to be in a very different role on a good team. That should make their life easier in theory, but how much of their success was because they had more freedom without the expectation.
As I’m going through all of this, I’m kind of talking myself back from the Grizzlies. Their season will have a lot more questions than I expected that we’ll have to wait and see.
That’s what the season is going to be about. I don’t think it’s to be expected that they will come back to the same kind of expectations as they were in 2023 or what they could’ve done in 2024 had they all been healthy. This gap year does change things, at least for this year.
Predictions
44-48 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): Play-in team with a lot of questions left to answer
Ceiling(best case scenario): Top three team
They will definitely be better. They won’t be a sub-30 team. But I also don’t see them bounce back to what they were doing on both ends of the floor two seasons ago.
I think I’d have the comfortably in the top six. I’d be quite surprised if they’re in the play-in, but at the same time, I don’t think they have the things to be a top-three team.
A lot of their success feels like it will come down to Edey and that’s banking on a lot from a rookie big. Because if he’s not up to the standard, then is Jackson Jr the full-time big? That’s putting a lot on him.
But their core is still a good core. They still have the impactful players from that 2023 season back. There’s still improvement from Bane, Morant, and Jackson that needs to be accounted for.
Maybe it’s because it’s been a year of not seeing him play consistently, but it looks like Morant is getting underrated. I can see him easily making an All-NBA team this year.
I’m calling it and think Bane will have a career year and will be close to making the All-Star team.
Overall, they will be right in the mix competing in the regular season. I’m not that high on them in the playoffs, though. I think this season will be seeing what they have and this isn’t the year they make drastic moves to push them further as a contender.