No need for an introduction. Let’s jump right into it
We are doing a season preview here. If you missed part one of the preview, where I went into a deep dive into the offensive question and concerns, you can check it out here!
For part two, we are focusing on:
What should we expect from Adebayo
How elite can the defense be
A talk about Wiggins
The backcourt being the weakest link
The battle of shooters
A Pelle leap
Other tidbits
Predictions
What should we expect from Adebayo?
This season from Bam Adebayo has been… different. That’s how I would first describe it. He’s had a kind of season that we have never seen any resemblance of. There’s nothing in the past that can compare to this.
Part of that is on him, and part of that is on the team’s scheme — both have contributed and are linked to why either allowed another to happen. The scheme worked only because of Adebayo’s development, but the scheme also allowed him to grow into the player that he was.
It’s hard to say whether this was his career year. It depends, not only on what you look at, but what you value more.
Adebayo’s box score stats, efficiency, and other individual numbers have, honestly, been quite subpar, especially for a player that is earning this much and is seen as an All-Star calibre player. This is textbook season of looking beyond the box score (this was similar to Derrick White’s season, too).
Because by almost all accounts, Adebayo had one of his worst individual seasons. He took a lot of 3s only to miss most of them. He had one of the least efficient seasons. His 2pt scoring was the worst in his career. His playmaking responsibilities went down. His offensive rebounding dropped. Only his rookie season was worse at finishing at the rim, on top of having a career-low rim rate. He even had the ball lowest in his career with 14.8% on-ball.
If you look beyond the usual numbers, not only did he have a career year in many impact metrics, but the team did significantly better on both ends of the floor with him on. Better than at any point in his career.
And yet, simultaneously, he had one of the highest impact metrics in his career, especially offensively. His ODPM was the highest at +1.5. Tied highest in ORAPM. The best on/off rating on offense. The team was a lot better with him on too. The Heat were +5.6 with him on and were -4.5 without him. That’s a 10-point swing. The offense was 6.6pts better with him than not, and the defense was 3.5pts better. These numbers went up even when you take away the top players he played with. Per Cleaning the Glass, they were playing like a 50+ win team with him on.
A lot of that came as a result, not by way of an increase in production, but more so because of the change in role. This new and different role meant that the team was simply better and more efficient with him on the court. It’s less about what he could’ve done but also what he allowed others to do — it’s those subtle changes that may not be clear at first glance, especially to fans that aren’t watching every game because on the surface, Adebayo didn’t do anything special.
You can see the impact he’s had on the offense. He had a +1.7 oTS. The team was a lot better in transition. There were a lot more 3s generated with him on the floor(+1.2 oEFG 3pt). He helped in the possession battle by limiting turnovers — his creation TOV was by far the lowest with 6.7%
As a side note, that does show that there are certain roles that are inherently more or less efficient. There are roles and how you fit within the offense that allow the rest of the team to do other things that are more efficient.
Now, then, the obvious question is what change has been made? What was so different about Adebayo this season compared to previous seasons?
To put it shortly, everything.
Everything was different. This was unprecedented change from him — thinking about it, I can’t think of the top of my head other players that completely revamped their games in such a way.
That says something about Adebayo. His defensive versatility is almost always touted as the thing about him, but I’d argue that his offensive versatility year in, year out is more impressive. If you look at his career, you can see there are 1-2 year windows where his role offensively is entirely different. He toggles through the shots he takes, the role he plays, and where on the court he’s used seamlessly regardless of who’s with him
This was the first time in his career that I can confidently say he wasn’t playing as simply another big.
What also made this season different is that the change didn’t come in a typical way. It didn’t come with more responsibilities. It didn’t come with more shots. It didn’t come with more freedom and more usage to do whatever they want with the ball in their hands. That’s the typical change when players become a different player or have career years. That’s usually what people mean when they say a player has become a star.
But with Adebayo, that didn’t happen. Instead, you could argue that he kind of just played within the right role in a different system that mostly focused on an egalitarian approach. In a respectful way, he was an effective role player.
That’s why, for the first time in his career, his most used playtype was being a spacer. Over 37% of his offense came through that. That’s an outlier for his position. He ranked in the 100th percentile in spacing TSA for bigs.
On the flipside, he had one of the lowest creation seasons. For the first time since 2020, his frequency was lower than 20%. This is a good thing because he hasn’t been a good creator for himself for a while:
Going forward, everything will depend on him refining pretty much everything he’s done this year. This was a transition period for him. By all means nitpick some of the efficiency, but this genuinely was a player learning an entire new role by playing a completely different position.
Think about that for a second. This was a player that has been mostly suited to play as a big. That’s where, in his previous seasons, that was his most efficient play type. Now, you designed an offense that removed the one thing that his skill set was meant for — it’d be like telling Jokic we are not doing dribble handoffs or setting many on-ball picks; have fun.
That’s why I didn’t see a big issue this year — that has changed, unfortunately. Everything changes when you get a top 5 player in the game. The expectations change. The pressure goes through the roof. Everything is micro-analysed. The things that you could’ve brushed off or hoped would develop are now under a microscope. All these holes are now the little things that matter in the margins.
Adebayo can’t remain this inefficient in all parts of his game. It’s just untenable if you want to win because it will be exploited, and it will make life easier for the defense.
The simplest thing he needs to be better at is making 3s. If you don’t want to be a big in 2026, you need to be able to play off ball and make 3s. That’s how it is. His shooting just hasn’t been good enough — valid, he never was asked to be this kind of shooter.
But at the same time, given his history and given his other shooting stats, I do have a slight reservation about the kind of jump he can make. I’m quite cautious with him becoming a reliable, consistent good shooter.
I don’t think he will get to a point where his 3pt shooting won’t be something that the defense won’t be able to live with. This will likely be something that is always going to be given up in favour of defending everything else.
That should be fine to an extent, especially if both the volume and the confidence he takes the shot continue to be higher. An average shooter that can chuck up a shot without hesitation will have value over being a complete zero on that end. But then that still shouldn’t be something that is a big thing for his offense.
I’m at a crossroads when it comes to his game. I genuinely have no idea where his game could develop or what it should be, especially when we consider the fit with Giannis.
Outside of the shooting, however that develops, he will still need to get better at becoming more efficient. That matters. That’s not watching the game through a calculator, but when you’re not the top option only living on tough shots, you need to be able to add something that’s efficient. Role players offensively need to be efficient.
That will come through learning how to be an off-ball player. That was one of the things that stood out with Adebayo this year. A lot of the time, it felt like he didn’t know where to move. There were hesitations. There were instances where he made a move when he should’ve stayed still and vice versa. There were times when there were attacks on the other side, and he found himself in no-man’s land — not in a good spot for a spot up 3pt, not close enough to get a dumpoff, or not in a position to cut without bringing the defense. It will be those instincts that will matter a lot.
Another area that has to improve, considering the team’s offense is his ability to finish in transition — this is a similar issue to Mitchell.
This isn’t the end of the world bad, but it’s also not good enough. The good thing is that the volume is at least there now. But a sub-60 % in situations that should be one of the most efficient shots you can get won’t cut it.
Finally, there’s this. Respectfully, I don’t have words when it comes to his ability to finish on cuts:
There are no excuses for this on team context at this point. To be almost six percentage points worse than average for your career is certainly something.
This will matter significantly more when you bring in Giannis. If Giannis is drawing all of the attention and you don’t want Adebayo to always spot up, the other alternative is to finish on cuts. That needs to be better than.
But as a whole, this should also be a very exciting year for Adebayo. And writing this whole preview got me wondering if the development should just be focused on versatility.
Versatility gives you options. It gives you counters. It helps the team scheme whatever it wants to be. That should be the strength of Adebayo; that should be leaned into.
I don’t need him to be one thing. I don’t want him to be the go-to scorer. I don’t need him to only be a big again. I don’t need him to be entirely off-ball either.
There are those individual weaknesses that he needs to work on — shooting 3s, finishing on cuts, better handle, improved instincts off ball. But in the grand scheme of things, it’s being the Swiss Army Knife that is going to amplify the offense.
People seem to take disrespect whenever I compare him to Draymond Green, but that’s the kind of player I envision him to be on a contender. A player that won’t have eye-popping stats and may not have the best efficiency across the board but will be playing the role so well that it lets everyone else play their best because of it.
How elite can this defense be
Initially, when the trade happened, a big talking point about their season was about how elite the defense is going to be. I thought that too. To an extent, I still think that because they employ Adebayo. But I don’t think this will be as consistent a defense or rank high in typical defensive stats.
Through 82 games, I don’t see them being top five, given how they play on offense with that kind of pace and what they’ve been doing defensively over the last two years, too. They will be an elite rebounding team and preventing shots at the rim as usual, but I don’t see how else they would math their way into elite defense.
The floor will still be high because it will be impossible to have a low floor with Adebayo, who hasn’t anchored a defense lower than seventh with him on the court since 2020. There’s also this track record of every 2-man, 3-man, 4-man, and 5-man lineup since 2020, where it didn’t matter who was on the court with him. It was going to be a good defense.
A bit of a lazy take, but having Spoelstra should count for something, right? A coach that, in an 18-year span, had three seasons below 10th. He’s had more seasons in the top five than below average. He did that with various levels of talent and in various different schemes. Spoelstra is textbook versatility and adaptability.
And now you’re giving him a unique defensive player…
I understand that Giannis may not be the same kind of player defensively, but he also adds something that the Heat or Bam never had before. They never had one of the best weakside protectors. Imagine going from Highsmith, PJ Tucker, or Caleb Martin to Giannis as your frontcourt partner.
But even this year, in a limited sample, Giannis without Myles Turner or Bobby Portis, the Bucks defense was 116.0, just around average. In the previous three-year stretch, the Bucks with Giannis but without Portis or Brook Lopez had a 113.1 defense(-2.5 better).
This isn’t expecting miracles. This isn’t expecting Giannis to be anchoring an elite defense and doing everything, but it will hold it steady. This will be crucial when Adebayo goes off.
In most years than not, the Heat’s defense has remained steady without Adebayo:
2026: +2.0 rDTG
2025: +1.1
2024: +0.3
2023: +0.6
2022: +0.0
2021: -0.6
2020: +0.8
There has been a slip-up in the last two, especially this year. But now, if you do stagger those two, Giannis should anchor a defense a bit better than being 2pts worse than average.
I was thinking about their rim protection. This is the Heat’s opponent relative rim frequency:
2026: -0.9%
2025: -1.1%
2024: -4.7%
2023: -4.1%
2022: -2.8%
2021: -2.6%
2020: -2.6%
Again, slight dips in the last two years, but historically, they are an elite team at preventing shots at the rim. Though with Adebayo on in the last two years, that jumps to -1.6%.
But they never were good at contesting shots at the rim — don’t think that’s a surprise when, at times, there was no one taller than 6’5 apart from Adebayo. Even he wasn’t an elite rim protector:
Now, they’re getting the perfect piece to this puzzle — Giannis also helps with the rim prevention too. The Bucks ranked around the same as Adebayo in terms of frequency with Giannis on, even without Lopez.
But this is what’s important:
LOOK AT THAT RIM CONTEST!
This duo is a match made in heaven. Everything about Adebayo’s game is going to be the same defensively, except now he has a giant behind him eating everything up. This might be the best rim defense in the league, even better than the Spurs — okay, that is kind of a hot take, but I’ll stand on it.
Also, get ready for this team to eat everything on the glass. Both Giannis and Adebayo have been so good at impacting defensive rebounding:
One other little tidbit I found is Giannis has had quite a big impact on the opponents’ transition frequency, which will come in handy for the Heat.
Then you add Mitchell, Wiggins, and Larsson. There are now fewer bodies that have to be covered up for. This might be the first time in Adebayo’s career where a closing lineup may include no one that needs to be hidden.
Although I don’t rank the defense that high in the regular season, this will have fewer questions and more answers in the playoffs.
Let’s have a quick chat about Wiggins
I see that I’m a lot lower on Wiggins than so many people. I see there’s this idea that Wiggins is the perfect fit and should be having an elite season in this type of role and environment next to Giannis and Adebayo.
There’s this constant talk about fit.
But I don’t see fit as the issue. There isn’t a question mark whether he fits or not, but more so to his talent level and how that has translated to impact, rather than in theory. A lot of the time when it gets brought up what Wiggins does, it feels like the impact is literally just in theory because so many stats, whether that’s tracking, RAPM, other plus-minus variations, influence on six factors, or simple on/off, so the complete opposite.
This isn’t a case of being on a bad team and impact not showing in those stats. This has been the case even when he was in Golden State in another perfect environment. His offensive impact beyond what he does in the box score doesn’t really show up.
Starting with a simple on/off. The Heat with him were -1.1 with a 114.9 offense and a 116.0 defense. Without him, they were +5.0 with a 117.9 offense and 112.9 defense. A change on both ends.
This shows up more when you include Adebayo. With both on together, the team is a mere +0.3 with 116.7 offense and 116.4 defense. Adebayo on his own is +9.3 with a 120.4 offense and 111.1 defense.
This was the case last year too, when Wiggins was in a different role in a different offensive scheme. Trends still showed the same thing.
Looking further into his influence on some of the six factors, it really doesn’t show up in anything. He hasn’t had positive oTS influence since 2019. Since 2022, he ranked below average in every year. He doesn’t limit turnovers at all, also graded around or below average consistently.
Another big factor, especially considering last year’s offense. The transition offense was a lot worse with him on the court than not:
And again, this isn’t a one-year sample of noisy data. He almost tanks a team’s transition offense, which was highly needed for the Heat. The Heat’s transition efficiency with him on was 121.1, which would rank 24th. Without him, that jumps to 129.2 and skyrockets to 6th — but I guess who cares because he makes spot-up 3s at a low volume.
There’s always talk about a player adding more than what the typical box score shows. That’s true the opposite way. A player seems to have good splits and good box score stats, but there’s no influence or impact in areas that matter a lot(we’ve seen the complete opposite with Adebayo, where, despite his lack of efficiency and lack of shooting, but still was one of the most impactful players).
Looking more into his scoring, although it dropped by half, his self-creation is still too high considering his efficiency. This is true shooting and relative to the average of the last five years:
2026: 44.7% & -9.0%
2025: 50.9% & -3.0%
2024: 49.8% & -4.1%
2023: 42.5% & -11.6%
2022: 49.4% & -2.5%
Him creating a loss for the offense. Luckily, it has dropped to a career low in TSA, but it’s still over 21% of his offense! A fifth of someone’s offense that is shooting almost 10% worse than league average.
You may ask why we are talking about his self-creation when that’s not going to be his role. It likely will be even with Giannis because who else is there? He had significantly higher volume in Golden State in a similar situation.
His ancillary skills also aren’t at that level to be an elite off-ball player. He’s not a high-volume 3pt shooter. He’s not a high-level passer. He’s turnover-prone. He’s very tunnel-visioned. There are a lot of weaknesses that lower his impact as an off-ball guy next to stars.
Even in Golden State, the impact wasn’t shown:
If you can’t even boost your numbers with Stephen Curry, I will have question marks.
I would care about this less if he was more of an impactful defender too. Now, without digging too deep into this, this is less about Wiggins specifically but more about my personal philosophy on defense. I think 1v1 defense is overrated for the most part, especially if you aren’t great elsewhere.
Defensive metrics also don’t rate Wiggins as high, and you can see why. He’s not a high defensive playmaker. He doesn’t get stops at a high percentage. Rebounding is below average and has declined in his influence on defensive rebounding. The rim protection is okay but not the best — this year it was one of the worst.
He’s a fine player. He will do his job. In a vacuum, he will do stuff that helps the team. But there’s always going to be the case that without him, most often teams do a lot better(like certain other players in the past for the Heat).
The backcourt is the weakest link
This is related to the main hole offensively, but their backcourt is the weakest link. That’s where you get the lack of creation alongside Giannis.
Unfortunately, a lot of that comes down to Mitchell’s weaknesses. A player’s strengths and weaknesses and how that can affect the team is very fluid and relative to the rest of the roster and the scheme. That is why players can have varied levels of impact on different teams because their whole skill set is suited in better and more effective ways, thus providing more impact.
That’s how I felt about Mitchell when he was first brought here. He still has the same weaknesses as before. I don’t think much has changed in his game. But my view on the impact he can have has changed.
When he got traded here, you immediately felt his presence. Even Giannis this year said you can feel him constantly pushing and looking to run and get into the paint and make solid reads that make the offense flow. This was felt more in the previous season because the Heat were slow.
This thought came up when I looked at his own transition scoring, but it was brought up that his impact goes beyond his individual ability to score. But when looking at his impact on the team’s transition offense, you can also see some concerns and limitations.
In the first year he was with the Heat, the team’s transition offense added 4pts per possession. They had a 137.1 ORTG in transition, which ranked in the 96th percentile. The team also increased the frequency by 2.9% with him on, which ranked in the 97th percentile. That is impactful. He was a big factor in helping the Heat run more and get easier shots.
This year, that was a completely different story, and a lot of that happened because the Heat were just fast in general.
The Heat only added 2.5pts per possession with him on, good for the 41st percentile. But they were also 1.1pts better without him. The Heat were running a lot with him. That hasn’t changed. But they were also without him. The Heat also had their transition ORTG be 4.2pts better without him, compared to 11.7pts better last year.
Then you combine that with Mitchell’s own transition scoring, and it’s quite concerning:
Everything about this is a negative. Mitchell’s half-court game is already a bit questionable to begin with. That is amplified more when you can’t score in transition, nor do you even take many shots, but also turn it over at a very high rate.
At that point, all the little things that a player can do aren’t enough to offset that. This is borderline negative for the offense.
The lack of efficiency would not be an issue if the volume was there. This is how Russell Westbrook was one of the most impactful players offensively despite not being able to finish himself. The weaknesses are similar here. Low efficiency and high turnover.
If there’s no high volume for Mitchell himself, nor is he insanely good at pushing the boundaries of how much you can increase the team’s frequency, his strengths become very redundant, whilst still having the weaknesses that can hold the offense back.
Because when it comes to his limitations, he’s not a shooter, he’s not a high-volume scorer, and his high-level passing lacks what you’d need from a starting guard. He does get a lot of raw potential assists:
And there’s still value in that. There’s value in smart, easy reads. But given this offensive scheme, a lot of the raw stats here don’t tell the full story of his playmaking or the impact he has because a lot of them aren’t advantages that he created. You can also see that in his low assists at the rim.
Some of the lack of impact showed the offense was worse with him and Adebayo than when he sat:
It’s not bad with Adebayo, and it’s also great that he can have good offensive stats on his own. But when you look at it through the lens of what he will add alongside Adebayo and Giannis, that’s when his skill set becomes redundant. The player that Adebayo shared the most minutes with when Mitchell was off the floor is Jaquez, who brought a lot more scoring for himself than Mitchell.
That then allows you to have other players that give you strengths that complement more players. The biggest difference between Adebayo/Mitchell lineups versus without Mitchell is the former had a 25.6% ORB versus 31.3%. Why? Because you replace a small guard with bigger players that do things differently.
That’s not to say he’s also entirely bad. There are many traits and skills he possesses that are so needed. For one, he’s a killer in the paint, whether that’s getting there in a flash or making shots. He shot 52% in the short mid-range(47% the year before). But then on the flipside, he doesn’t entirely get to the rim or gets to the line.
Some of the limitations can easily be solved by being more aggressive in scoring himself. He only took 13.3 true shooting attempts per 100. That ranks in the 7th percentile for his position.
I’ve been seeing a comparison to Jrue Holiday for him, and even Holiday in his time in Milwaukee always averaged over 20 on good efficiency. Even in Boston, he averaged more.
Although there are ways to help some of the offensive impact, which would still be good enough for the team, this would also be the glaring hole that I could see be the issue if they were to make a deep playoff run.
The battle of shooters
Klay Thompson. Tim Hardaway Jr. Simone Fontecchio.
Those are the three shooters. Those are the only players that I’d call real shooters. By that, I mean, defenses 100% know they are going to shoot and will make it a lot of the time. They have no fear. They have no hesitancy in shooting. Some will chuck up even if they miss eight straight.
These are the players that have the most gravity on the team. These are the shooters that should provide the most gravity.
But which ones do you start or play more?
Unfortunately, Fontecchio is the odd man out here. I’m not a big fan. He’s had one good shooting season, and that was three seasons ago now. On the surface, you may look at his numbers and think a guy shooting 37% isn’t a good shooter?
He started the season shooting 50% on over 5 attempts in 14 games. The takes were flying that he’s this elite shooter. It only took the next 56 games for that percentage to drop to 34%. He’s an average to below-average shooter; that’s more inconsistent than most. Out of 31 games where he took at least 5 attempts, 13 were below 30%.
If his shot doesn’t fall, I don’t see other parts of his game providing much either.
That leaves THJ and Klay. Despite my long feelings towards THJ(I tweeted many times that he’s one of the last people I’d want to see play for the Heat. He also joined an elite company with Julius Randle that I said would make me a Celtics fan if they did), I don’t see how he’s not the clear option to start.
Here are some of his shooting playtypes:
Spot up: 1.29 points per possession on 3.5 possessions
Off-screen: 1.06 on 1.8
Handoff: 1.15 on 1.3
Compare that to Thompson:
Spot up: 1.07 on 2.9
Off-screen: 0.97 on 3.0
Handoff: 1.00 on 1.4
Even if you look at his last year with the Warriors:
Spot up: 1.09 on 3.0
Off-screen: 1.10 on 5.6
Handoff: 0.96 on 1.5
I also feel THJ is a more dynamic player than Thompson at this stage in their career.
When I brought up worries about Thompson, people assumed I meant defense. It’s the offense that is concerning for me too. He hasn’t been above league-average efficiency since 2019. He has shot 41.8% and 44.8% from 2pt the last two seasons. He has one season above 50% since 2022. Forget about anything going at the rim, and even the finishing is subpar.
Call me a nerd, but his long mid-range frequency is too high, especially for the decline in shooting.
That is bailing out defenses. That’s so many shots that you concede on offense. That’s what hurts his efficiency.
What I found surprising about Thompson’s game is his low 3pt rate, relative to where he’s at now and how good his 3pt shooting still is. I had no idea that this was the first time he had a 3pt rate higher than 70% — at his peak, it was below 50%(!). That needs to change. At this point, it should be a 3pt or pass.
I say that, but that’s also part of the issue I have with him. That is as one-trick pony as you can. Those will die in the playoffs.
THJ has a bit more juice. He can also still dunk. And he has shown in the past that he can somewhat create for himself. Until the last two years, his self-creation rate was above 10% each year, reaching as high as 31% of his offense where he had a 55% TS in 2019.
This is his pick-and-roll game in his career:
He clearly has something there. Multiple consecutive years of at least 0.95 points per possession — I think I’m buying more THJ stock. God that felt weird to write.
A Pelle leap
It’s hard to be annoyed when you get Giannis in a trade, but it was annoying to also part with Jaquez, especially after the year he had. After a rough sophomore season, he thrived in this offense and was a big reason for its success. He fit so well. His skillset was right there for it.
He did act like a ball handler. He took on more responsibility, even if it was above what he probably should’ve been doing. He was second on the team in creation playtypes. He took on a lot of the offensive load onto himself.
Someone will have to fill in those shoes.
That will likely fall on Pelle Larsson, especially when considering he just signed an extension.
It’s only been two seasons of Larsson, but I have been loving watching him play. There’s a joke within some Heat fans that this is our European Derrick White(before he made the 3pt jump). I wouldn’t go as far as that, especially on the defensive end, but there is something about his game that makes you buy into him being a solid role player on both ends.
He’s had a great jump from his rookie to sophomore season:
On-ball percentage went up: 9.4% → 11.5%
Impact metrics trend upwards, particularly on offense: -0.7 → +0.1 2Y ORAPM
Six-factor influence is trending upwards: increase in oTS, oTOV, dTOV, PVAL
There are signs and indicators of solid development.
Focusing more on the offensive side, because that’s where he will have to make more of an impact, there are plenty of positives but also one glaring issue that will have to improve. It’s an issue that can’t be this level of bad if he wants to be a high-level contributor.
Starting with some positives:
True shooting jumped up from 54.8% to 60.5%. He’s now almost 3% above league average after being almost 3% below
Free throw rate jumped from 0.30 to 0.41. This is arguably his best skill
Potential assists per 100 had a slight increase from 7.8 to 8.9
Rim assists doubled from 1.2 to 2.4. That jumped from the 12th to 88th percentile for his position
He made an amazing leap in showing his self-creation. Although a negligible increase in volume, going from 1.9 true shooting attempts to 2.2, he is shooting 62.4% TS. A jump from almost 1% below average to almost 10%(!)
Spacing efficiency went from 2.2% below average to 0.2% above average
Transition efficiency remained steady when compared to league average, but it still jumped from 60.4% to 66.0%
His 2pt TS% stands out the most at 65.3%
That 2pt scoring comes from shooting 70.6% at the rim and 43.2% in the short mid-range. Plus he’s drawing fouls
There’s a lot to point to. He has improved in areas of weakness or continued to refine the strengths that make him even more impactful. This season was an A+ for him.
He’s also not just taking advantage by playing with Adebayo, for example. Even without Adebayo on the floor, he’s averaging 14.6 points, 4.9 assists, 4.3 rebounds per 75 on 62.9% TS. For comparison, Jaquez without Adebayo averaged 19.0 points, 5.7 assists, 6.6 rebounds on 54.9%.
What will separate Pelle is the playmaking. That’s probably one of the more underrated parts of his game.
I know this is cherry-picking one play, but there were passing windows that Pelle was hitting that not many on the team could do:
It will still remain to be seen if he can replicate what Jaquez did at that volume. Although the efficiency wasn’t there for Jaquez when it comes to self-creation, it’s still impressive enough to be able to carry that much volume. Again, he was second in self-creation on the team!
Can Larsson do that? Or is he an efficient merchant that has a ceiling to attack as a secondary option at low volume? That will be the big question because the ceiling is much higher than Jaquez with how Pelle plays and what his strengths have been.
I will add that this is mostly looking at it through the lens of providing a spark off the bench, more specifically without Giannis. As much as I have praised him, I don’t think he can be the reliable, consistent third option as a whole. That would take a significant leap. But off the bench, stabilise some offense in short bursts? That’s doable.
What’s great about his game is that he also does all the little things with better players. There was one specific play in his rookie season that I absolutely loved where all he was doing was making perfect, timely cuts and was screening for others. He will feast on all of the attention Giannis draws.
On the other side, we arrive at the big concern. He needs to improve his shot. No ifs or buts about it. If he doesn’t shoot at least average on all 3s, rather than just be a wide-open 3pt merchant, I can’t see myself seeing him close games or play more than 20 minutes in key games. He will be a player that can be exploited against good defenses that will make life harder for everyone else.
It’s 2026. If you’re a wing, you need to learn how to shoot on good enough volume and confidence. Otherwise, the only way to see floor time is to be in the 99th percentile in many areas(think Alex Caruso).
This should be one of the main points of the season to look forward to.
Other tidbits:
Jovic needs to bounce back. This is a make-or-break season for me.
I’m excited for Portis off the bench. Those Portis at the five will be an experience defensively, but I like that on offense. Maybe there’s something with him and Pelle
Speaking of an experience defensively. Fontecchio, THJ, and Portis. I will struggle to put it in words how much pain this could cause me
I wonder if we’ll see any hidden gems. I see there’s loud noise about Ryan Conwell already. But the Heat usually have found someone like that in their contending seasons — Martin, Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Gabe Vincent, and Max Strus. There’s a history of finding players that contribute well in their small role
I do agree with some of the lack of bench depth. I DON’T want to see any minutes without either Adebayo or Giannis. With one of them on, there’s hope, and given the scheme of the offense, no one is relied on that much to overperform
I’m looking forward to Spoelstra having potentially one of his best seasons ever
There will be lots of experimentation on the offensive end. I don’t see this team being the same team in November versus April
I can see this being a top 5 offense and it being the driver of their success, rather than the defense
I’m so excited to see Adebayo’s game this year given his history of molding into whatever the team needs him to be
Predictions & closing thoughts
So, phew. This was a long preview. I didn’t realise there was going to be so much to talk about. I guess the Heat being good meant actually being excited for basketball.
I don’t want to seem like a homer, but I can genuinely see this team making the finals. They will have as good of a chance as anyone, and that’s all you can ask for in today’s game. They have all the ingredients of a good team.
Best case scenario. I see them as the top seed, sitting at 55 wins, with a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense.
Worst-case scenario. They are seventh or eighth, winning around 45 games, with the offense struggling through experimentation but being good enough on defense to raise the floor.
This is a good year for Giannis to be in the MVP race if they meet reasonable expectations. If they have a middle-case scenario of reaching 48 wins and are around the fifth seed, that Giannis top 3 in MVP is going to hit nicely.
This is the most excited I’ve been for any season, and I can’t wait for all of this to unfold, and hopefully the Heat will be champions in 2027.