Miami Heat Losing Duncan, Drafting Kasparas, Trading for Powell & Off-Season Update

Some quick thoughts on Duncan leaving, Kasparas, Powell's game & where do the Heat stand currently

So, it’s been a while since the off-season and the free agency started. During this time, things have somewhat happened for the Miami Heat. They lost the best 3pt shooter in franchise history, drafted a 19 year old guard, and finally made a “good” trade in the off-season — it’s been a while since such a move has been made.

And for now, it looks like they are done with any major moves… unless a too good of an offer shows up.

But let’s just go through some thoughts on those moves and what else could or should happen for the rest of the off-season.

Losing Duncan but getting Fontecchio

It was somewhat expected, but I really didn’t want to believe that it was going to happen until it did.

There were constant jokes around Robinson over the last few years, and also a lot of criticisms about how he’s been on this horrible contract that was a liability, inconsistent, and should’ve been traded a long time ago. But yet, he still has, somehow, been arguably the third most important player in this entire era.

I have tweeted so many stats and clips and threads, and articles about Robinson. Since 2020 with the Heat, he is:

• 2nd in games played

• 3rd in minutes played

• 4th in points scored

• 1st in 3pt made(1st in 3pt made per 100)

• 5th in assists

• 4th in rebounds

• 3rd in total plus minus

• 4th in steals

• 5th in blocks

• 2nd in charges drawn

Then there are a lot of tweets like these:

• Since 2020, player’s stats with and without Duncan

• His 3pt shooting stats in the playoffs

• Bam and Duncan lineups stats

• On/off stats in 2024

• A deep dive thread last year

• More 3pt stats since 2020

There was just way too many tweets about his game and his impact — it is probably in the thousands of tweets at this point.

Despite all of that, I still think his time here has gone severely underappreciated.

He was one of my favourite players to watch over the years. A lot of that was because of simply his game. I always enjoy watching players who I would be similar to. Obviously, I could never emulate anything close to what he was doing but he was probably one of the players that I have watched as a way to study to improve my game at university in local leagues. I was his film to work on off-ball movement and footwork. That’s why there’s a bit of a connection to him over the years.

On top of that, his overall journey was also something that was so interesting to see. He was one of the worst players on the team in 2019 when he was only getting garbage minutes on a non playoff team. I had no idea that he was going to turn out this way. He was already going up against the odds before he stepped into the NBA.

So, it really is a damn shame seeing him depart like this, but hopefully, he will have more success in Detroit.

Now, they did get Simone Fontecchio for him. Not sure how to feel about this other than being indifferent. I mean, if they were going to trade Robinson, I would’ve hoped that they were going to get someone significantly younger — Fontecchio is 29 years old and 220 days, and Duncan is 31 years old and 86 days. Not a big gap. Whereas there’s a significantly big gap in their overall game and 3pt shooting. My thought was if they were going to move on from Robinson and downgrade, it would be to at least get a young player you can buy on and hope he improves.

Fontecchio is going to be 30 going into his fourth season and his third team. He’s had one mainly solid season in the 2023-24 season. That’s where he shot 40.1% on 9.8 3s per 100 possessions. But in his rookie year, he shot 33.0% and this year he shot 33.5%.

Looking deeper at his shooting splits:

It’s still a question of how effective he can be. He’s definitely one that you can’t leave wide open, though.

His overall impact metrics are a bit glaringly bad, too:

Digging more into his offense, it really is going to be a significant downgrade from Robinson. That’s going to be matter and be obvious. And for a team that wants to remain competitive or have a good environment for their young players.

It’s still a question if he might even be on this team but I don’t see that big of a difference if he is or isn’t.

Drafting Kasparas

This is going to be quite a short thought, mainly because I haven’t been watching summer league or much of his game in college.

But after a brief look at his strengths and weaknesses, some highlights, and watched a couple of YouTube videos on him, this is definitely going to be a project for the entire year. He is still 19 years old and will be for the whole of the season(he’ll turn 20 on 29th May).

Going off my timeline, he’s had a rough summer league start but again, I don’t think that is something unexpected or something to raise an eye at.

He’s not going to be starting day one. He’ll likely won’t be coming off the bench getting actual minutes right away either. I expect this to be another case of what happened with Nikola Jovic or Kel’el Ware.

A reminder. Jovic came in as a 19 year old and only appeared in 15 games as a rookie. His second year? He played 19.5 minutes per game in 46 games. Even Ware this year hasn’t had consistent playing time period until end of December.

I’m not expecting this to be any different with Kasparas.

Overall, though, I do like what I’ve briefly seen from him. Yes, the turnovers are a bit of a flag. But that does come with extremely high usage, being a teen, and having the offense run through you, especially when you’re a high-risk passer. That’s what I liked a lot. I like that confidence to make key plays, even if they are difficult — being able to recognise there is a window, there is a plus in itself to me.

I do hope that he will get more playing time than both Jovic or Ware in their rookie seasons, at least more consistently. This team isn’t and shouldn't look to compete or make decisions based on that. I also don’t think he needs to be playing 20 minutes per game and be a regular bench player, but I don’t want to see a whole bunch of DNPs or getting three minutes in garbage time.

I will enjoy seeing how this pans out with him because I do like the skillset.

Trading for Powell

Okay, this was so unexpected. That really caught me off-guard because of what they gave up. Getting an elite well rounded shooter for just Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson was a steal. Unrelated, but this move also annoyed me because this should’ve been the kind of move being made 2-3 seasons earlier.

I love this trade, though, even outside the cost that it took. Powell is a damn good player. I have loved Powell for a while, and after looking at his career stats, I feel like he has been underrated.

I will like to try to go through his game and fit in more detail, in terms of what he could bring here, in a separate piece. But for now, let’s look at some of the key stats that immediately stand out.

He’s a career 40% 3pt shooter on just under 9 3s per 100. He’s had four seasons(all in the last five years) shooting over 41%. He also has a career 60.0% TS. That’s just wildly efficient for a guy who’s been in the league for 10 years and carries over 22.1% usage. This isn’t just some low-minute player doing this.

That’s another point. He’s had three seasons playing over 30 minutes per game and being capable as a starter. In fact, for his career, he averages 18/3/2 on 61.1% TS as a starter in 259 games. Better than off the bench.

The efficiency comes from everywhere. He’s obviously a damn good shooter, but he’s also been shooting 53% from 2pt since 2020. And an underrated part is the foul drawing. In that time, he’s also shooting 83% at the line on over 6 fta per 100 — he has a career .280 FTr and .302 since 2020.

These are also his impact metrics:

There is a bit of a red flag when it comes to his defensive impact(I’ll have to dig deeper there), but he hasn’t been liked at all as a defender in all of the metrics over the last few years. His main impact will come through his versatile offense.

And speaking of his offense, it’s his versatile on and off ball efficiency that just makes all of this work.

He’s been consistently near the top as a scorer in the PNR(85th percentile in four of the last five seasons. The volume has also been there, with it being at least 70th percentile in three of those seasons. He can handle the responsibility as an on-ball guy.

But then check his spot ups:

Insane. The volume and efficiency are right at the top.

That’s where I see the fit being so well here. He isn’t a dominant on-ball player, even in a year like this that had him step up a lot more after Paul George leaving. Despite that, he still only had 2.1 time of possessions and 2.62 average dribble per touch, which isn’t high at all. That would rank seventh for the Heat amongst rotational players.

The Heat desperately needed shooting, and they got it. He’ll add the spacing, the off-ball shot making, coming off-screens, and some additional fire power on-ball.

I’m not sure what the future for him is here. I know this may not exactly be the Heat’s way of doing things, but he should definitely be looked as a short term player looking to make life easier for everyone until the deadline, where they should shop him, considering his age.

But that’s an issue for later. Right now, he’s going to make this team better and a much more helpful environment for whatever the

Where do the Heat stand now?

So, right now, it does look like the team is set. The big questions remain what they do with both Wiggins and Rozier, with it feeling likely that Wiggins will definitely be back.

I still think that would be the bad route. Neither player should be on the team, though for different reasons.

I’m not even sure what you do with Rozier, especially with the gambling investigation also going on. I have no idea how they can salvage this either as a way to trade him or incorporate him into playing.

Because the idea of Rozier before this year, could still somehow, somewhat be turned around, especially as a spark off the bench. If we had no recollection of what happened this year, I wouldn’t see it as a big need to get him off the team if he was the bench guard until you trade him at the deadline.

But that’s not the case. He had one of the worst seasons in the league:

Surely, it can’t and won’t be this bad:

But how do you even look to incorporate someone that had this bad of a season? How do you look to come up with what role he should serve on the team?

I just see way too much emphasis on banking on that jump to start, and then having way too many questions on what route you go with here. With Powell, Herro, Kasparas, and Davion Mitchell, I just don’t see where he’d fit in any shape or form.

At the same time, I also have no idea what the trade would even be.

Now, getting to Wiggins. He’s also one of the players that I don’t see the fit on the team. I don’t see the need either. And I also don’t see some of the reluctance from moving him, or that he had a good season with the Heat.

I’ve touched on Wiggins a bit previously, mainly to do with his offense, and not seeing the fit there. I would view him as a player and how the Heat should approach him if he was seen as an uber charged Haywood Highsmith. That was my assumption when the Heat got him, and they really went the other way.

This is where I don’t see his kind of archetype of a player(if used in that way) as one that helps anyone else or the team. In games he played with the Heat, the Heat were -3.1 net with him on with a 111.3 ORTG and +7.3 with a 117.1 without him.

Even his time with the Warriors felt overrated, especially on offense, but that was also in a limited, different role. That made a lot of sense. But this is reverting back to what he was doing with the Wolves when it really wasn’t impacting winning.

He’s also not 24 anymore(when he got traded to the Warriors) that you could at least bank on some development. He’s now 30 with huge holes in that part of on-ball game. If that is the role he’s going to play in, I just don’t see a single reason he should be on the team, given their context.

It makes some of the lineup construction a bit messy when considering the goals for each lineup. I’d much prefer something like Herro-Powell-Jovic-Adebayo-Ware or even Mitchell instead of Ware.

Neither Wiggins’ age nor skill set helps the team. This definitely should be a priority to get someone else. I would love to have that Rui Hachimura trade, especially if there is a pick involved.

These two are likely the last questions for the team in the off-season. Maybe Highsmith would be flipped elsewhere. Maybe they pull off another unexpected trade.

But it does also feel like the core is safe for the most part, and that this is the team heading into training camp.

So, I guess that is where the Heat stand. Get themselves a solid player that can help them in both being competitive and help development, have some more flexibility, go under the tax, and see where things go later. That’s only as good as it could’ve been. My main concern was them using assets — they haven’t.