Miami Heat Quick Off-season Thoughts
A brief discussion on the Heat's priorities and potential moves they should consider
It is that time of the year when there’s still the NBA finals going on, the draft hasn’t happened, free agency is still in the distance, and all that is left is speculation and rumours.
This is the time when we see the trade machines being fired up and used more than ChatGPT during exam season. Every trade package that you can think of has already been sent on Twitter. Giannis Antetokounmpo to Toronto. Maybe Bam Adebayo for Karl-Anthony Towns? Darius Garland for Jalen Suggs? How about Kevin Durant to countless destinations?
But what should the Heat look to do in their trade machine? Should they even hop on Fanspo or Spotrac to look to trade for Durant?
So, that’s what we’ll be talking about here. Here are my thoughts on pretty much everything related to the Heat’s potential off-season plans, any moves they should make, any moves they shouldn’t consider, and just what the overall focus going forward should be.
Contrary to what some may think, I don’t believe this is a year that they should blow it up. This isn’t the off-season for a fire-sale that involves everyone. There are some “untouchable” players, and it shouldn’t be the Heat having an Oklahoma City Thunder off-season in 2019 or the Utah Jazz off-season in 2022. This shouldn’t be the time when you sell everything and go into a full rebuild.
Now, I say that, but there are exceptions, though, not entirely likely. If someone offers a bunch for Bam Adebayo that it would be too good to pass on, it would be difficult to rationalise their decision if they didn’t do that. If there are 4-5 picks offered(there are dumb teams, hello, New York Knicks), that should be an easy yes.
Outside of that possibility, the Heat should remain to continue to approach things in a similar way they always have.
I have been team “rebuilding and blowing it up”, but a fan in me just doesn’t want to see that happen anymore. I’d still probably lean that it was the more optimal way of restarting over, especially to get a jumpstart on the assets. The Heat could get a bunch just from flipping both Adebayo and Herro, which could help them get set up for the near future quicker.
But at the same time, I do want to watch Heat basketball be somewhat competitive. Selfishly, I also want to have fun creating content about the Heat. This is where selfish reason does come in because I am not about to watch, rewatch, and do more specific rewatches to see the Heat go 20-62 with so many games being blowouts.
Give me mid. Give me 35 wins at least. Give me more games that are somewhat competitive. Give me something worth tuning into and looking forward to. I’ll take that even if it means having a lesser chance of getting a top prospect.
After thinking about it(this might also be a discussion in itself for a different time), I don’t think I have much of an issue with the Heat’s approach of just constantly looking to be competitive, picking in the mid lottery whenever they’re bad and looking to develop a core in that way.
There are some specific issues with that approach that can definitely be improved on. I do still believe their “competitive at all costs” or always thinking that they have a chance has and does hurt them.
Thinking moves like trading your expiring and a first-round pick for Terry Rozier because you believe you have a puncher’s chance once everyone is healthy is a big issue. Or not wanting to pull the plug on certain builds until it’s too late, like they did with Butler. There are others, like the reluctance to take a slight step back in the short term, where circumstances push you to.
But as the overall strategy that guides them, I like that and think that is the way to go. That’s why that is the way I’m thinking of these potential moves.
This might then be contradictory, but I don’t think they should be making moves for Kevin Durant or DeMar DeRozan or any aging “better” player. That’s where always thinking you have a chance and so you look to always make these kinds of moves can backfire.
Right now, my view on the moves they make is simple.
Do not look to improve by trading any assets.
Do not look to trade Kel’el Ware or Nikola Jovic.
Do consider lateral moves if they give you more flexibility or banking on a player.
Do prioritise trades that can get you assets.
Do make winning moves as long as the goal is to continue to develop a core.
I think those points are ones that would guide me with what the Heat should do or prioritise.
But let’s start with just talking about the Durant trade. A lot of that depends entirely on the package and how many picks it would take to get him. Outside of Pat Riley finessing them, I just don’t see how that move would have those four points apply to this.
I have seen ones that do exclude both Ware and Jovic and only give up one pick, but I don’t know how realistic that would be. Most of the trades, one of Ware or Jovic is gone, or multiple picks are sent.
Starting with the latter, that goes against trading assets, which the Heat are lacking. And the thing about trading for Durant is that it won’t be the only move they’ll look to make.
Simply getting Durant isn’t turning this team into a contender(even in the weak East). A core of Tyler Herro, Adebayo, and Durant isn’t one that I’d even put that much ahead of most teams to have them safely out of the play-in.
Even if they look to make other moves or are able to attract other key role players… or even if they somehow also manage to flip Herro for other assets to get better players, I don’t see a way out of making this team significantly better enough to warrant such moves.
I am not one to be championship or bust when it comes to deciding what moves to make. This is more of a thought that it’s adding a 37-year-old Durant to a 37-win team that was the 10th seed. The age being a key factor here — this is turning this core into a two-year window at best.
There will be no patience for any other young player to look to develop. They won’t have any other major assets that they could flip to turn the team around.
This is the kind of move you go all in on when you are a set borderline contender. These gambles are ones that already established playoff teams that are trending upwards make, depending on how much they want to accelerate their build. I don’t see that kind of build here with the Heat. The only way you could see this move as an option is if you believe they weren’t as bad as they were this year. That’s the only way.
I think back at the 2019 team that looked to add Jimmy Butler because I feel like that’s the closest comparison. But this is where Butler’s age makes a big difference, top players’ contracts(that was the beauty of having your top players contributing on rookie contracts and having undrafted players), and players’ unlikely development.
A very big reason why that team was immediately better to that extent was Duncan Robinson suddenly emerging and having the second-most efficient, high-volume 3pt shooting season behind Stephen Curry. It was also Adebayo turning himself into a DPOY-calibre player, whilst making significant jumps on offense. This would be as if we get Durant and somehow Pelle Larsson has a Klay Thompson-like season and Jovic turns himself into a top ~30 player and a top five wing defender.
Kind of a long shot.
With the Durant trade, sure, you do get better(hard not to when you add Durant), but to what end, though?
That is my main issue with this. The end is only a two-year window at best, but at the same time, you’re kicking the can down the road when it comes to retooling, gaining assets, and looking to round out a core.
Although the approach should still be to remain competitive, it shouldn’t be the driving force at all costs. They aren’t in any kind of position to be making those types of moves, whether that’s because their top players aren’t good enough, the rest of the team needs a lot of work, lack of additional picks, or lack of high upside players that could be flipped.
It shouldn’t be the extreme in either direction every single year.
So, this is what I believe should be the plan for this off-season.
The first step is recognising and accepting that you are entering the 2017-19 Heat era of mid. This is their version of a rebuild, and it shouldn’t be skipped or accelerated. This is where the Heat should learn from past mistakes in previous builds and look to build on that. It’s also accepting that this isn’t going to be or shouldn’t be turned around in a season or two.
Once that is decided, it makes some of the roster decisions easier to think about. This is the current team, sorted by age.
Kel’el Ware
Nikola Jovic
Keshad Johnson
Pelle Larsson
Jaime Jaquez Jr
Tyler Herro
Davion Mitchell(RFA)
Bam Adebayo
Haywood Highsmith
Andrew Wiggins
Terry Rozier
Kyle Anderson
Kevin Love
The first thing with this is that in most realistic scenarios, Ware, Jovic, and Adebayo should most definitely be on the team. That’s not saying that they are untouchable in a vacuum, more just untouchable in this particular situation under these circumstances.
Both Ware and Jovic are the youngest on the team, with the highest upside out of anyone else. They have already shown enough flashes to warrant keeping.
Adebayo is in a strange place here. He would be a big reason why the Heat are constantly good enough to be better than the worst teams. He’d now be the typical vet for the Heat who is always there, keeping them mid. He still hasn’t reached his 30s, so that’s also a bonus. But at this point, I’d also wouldn’t be considering him in any major future plans for a different build — that’s on the Heat for fumbling this as badly as they could’ve.
I don’t think he’s a hindrance to a team with championship aspirations, but he’s also not one of the players that I’d be looking to build around either. His game does come with limitations that kind of make that tougher than it needs to be. And unfortunately, the Heat are just too many moves behind from being able to comfortably win with Adebayo being the top-three-paid player on the team. The rest of the team would have to be completely overhauled for that to happen.
It is frustrating that it has worked out that way, but again, that is just the front office fumbling with how they transitioned into this build. The “Bam build” should’ve gone entirely differently; that would’ve already featured someone like Donovan Mitchell or even Trae Young.
That’s why, for the time being, I feel like the comp would be Pascal Siakam on the Raptors — the whole approach feels very similar to ours, too. A good enough player to carry the team to being in playoff contention until you probably have to sell on him for whatever package(hopefully, it’s better than what the Raptors got) and use that to continue to build on the roster or be in the position to use Bam for win-now players.
But realistically, these three players should be the ones to stay, focusing and prioritising the youngest development.
Mitchell kind of also joins that group that I’d love to bring back. He showcased enough already that he fits right here and has been great, and still fits with the timeline being only 26. And the big deciding factor is that his contract shouldn’t be something that is outrageous either. It likely isn’t something that will be too expensive.
He has shown he can play the role of a ball handler off the bench so well on both ends of the floor. It’s tough to look at any silver linings in a series that they were losing by 50 points, but I felt like Mitchell was one of the better players for the Heat, given the circumstances.
Everyone else should be moved one way or the other for various packages.
Rozier, Highsmith, Wiggins, Robinson, and Anderson all fit that. I’m not expecting miracles. I’m not expecting to flip any of them for key players or picks. These moves will likely be lateral moves, and I think that will be good enough for them. The goal should just be a reshuffle whilst aiming to go younge,r and players that can at least be playing on the court.
The big issue with these players is also their contracts:
Wiggins: 28.2m(19.3% of the cap)
Rozier: 26.6m(17.2%)
Robinson: 19.9m(12.9%)
Anderson: 9.2m(6.0%)
Rozier, specifically, has been a clear negative all year long, and that is taking up 17% of the cap. The team was -4.5 with him on in 1658 minutes and +4.3 without him in 2328. That’s a big swing.
Wiggins had health issues, and similar to Rozier, the team was doing better without him. In games he played in, they were -3.1 net in 546 minutes with him on and +7.3 in 275 without him. In a much smaller sample, if you include Herro and Adebayo on, they were +14.3 without him in 87 minutes.
That’s two players combining for ~36% of the cap that you’re literally significantly better without them. That’s more than a third of your cap dragging you down.
Flipping that for any neutral player would be a huge win. If that also works out contract-wise, even better.
Robinson, Highsmith, and Anderson are a different case. They make up around ~22% of the cap. I would say they have been more helpful than not, but also not for that much cap, and with that age. They are all either over 30 or close to it. I’d much rather spread that cost for younger players that you may bank on for some more upside(exactly someone like Mitchell!).
These five players should be somehow reshuffled, focusing on contract flexibility, getting neutral role players, and getting young players that you can bank on.
Then there are the rest of the group with other younger players, with Larsson, Johnson, Stevens, Christopher, and Jaquez Jr. I feel indifferent to these players. I’d ideally keep both Larsson and Jaquez — still a believer.
They are all on rookie contracts and are at that age where it makes sense. They all have something in their game that I wouldn’t mind just taking another chance on and continuing to give them minutes.
Jaquez is the one who you ideally still look to develop a lot more. I don’t believe he suddenly hit this kind of wall, and that is it.
But if push comes to shove and you need to include either of them to make money work or entice the other team to take on the former players, there’s no reluctance there.
Love is untouchable because of his vibes and IG memes.
Obviously, this leaves the one player I haven’t touched on yet because I know that this is the one move that will get the most pushback, but it’s selling high on Herro for whatever the best package you think you can get.
I struggle figuring out what his value could be around the league and what kind of package he could get you, especially in today’s landscape. Whatever it is, whether a couple of picks, a young prospect, or some combination, they should take the best available offer.
This is one of the things that I feel strongly that they need to do this rather than keeping him on the team(and possibly extending him) for any reason. I don’t see the big benefit over getting anything else they can get. If they can flip him for a package similar to one that either of the Dejounte Murray trades got, that should be a no-brainer.
Keeping him leaves the same question I have with getting Durant: you keep him for what exactly?
I don’t see the upside in either direction of keeping him just because he’s young, especially when this is likely now the highest value he can have. Keeping him just prolongs the build for no reason.
He’s in a worse boat than Adebayo(who, I also believe they should move in the right moment for the right package), where in these circumstances, it just doesn’t make sense to keep him because we know he’s not in the right role, asked too much of him, is seen as someone higher/better, and just needs a lot around him to be a good team.
That’s not what the Heat should be prioritising, though. And it just is the way it is that for them to make any significant change, one of them has to go. You’re not making a significant change by flipping Andrew Wiggins!
Before the argument that the prospect or the picks may not turn out to being what Herro has become, that’s also the point. I don’t think the package that you’d trade him for, you’d also be hoping that they turn out in a similar way as he did. The aim is to hope those picks or stars can take a bigger leap, or are giving you a different 2-way impact, and are more suited to the right role on a better contract.
Overall, my long-term vision is:
Keeping Adebayo, Jovic, Ware, and Mitchell
Flipping Wiggins/Rozier for neutral, better players(preferably younger)
Flipping Robinson/Highsmith/Anderson for anyone younger that you can take a chance on
Drafting at #20(maybe getting another late first round pick through trade)
Trading Herro for a combo of prospects to take a flier on or as many picks as you can
The goal is then to prioritise the years to come beyond 2026. This isn’t a vision that makes them a contender in the short term. It’s to round out your team with higher upside young talent, acquiring assets, maintaining flexibility, building the right culture, continuing to develop and improve, and hopefully, you get lucky in some area at the right time.
I agree with this. The only thing I probably disagree is on Jovic. He's not a bad player but he's not on my must keep list.