Orlando Magic 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
The Orlando Magic made the playoffs for the first time since 2020. It doesn’t feel that long ago, but it feels worse than it was. They only had three seasons of no playoffs and only two seasons with sub-30 wins.
This growth from them started the season before(it probably started with Jamahl Mosley). They won 22 games in 2022. That improved to 34 in 2023 after drafting Paolo Banchero. And now, it improved again to 47 wins. That’s growth.
That growth is happening on both ends of the floor, but it’s the defense that has transformed them into this playoff caliber team. Here’s their offense and defense relative to average:
2024: -1.65 worse than average on offense / +3.84 better than average on defense
2023: -2.8 / +0.34
2022: -7.7 / -0.49
They’re still pretty bad offensively but being almost 4pts better than average on defense is elite — out of 716 different teams since 2001, that’s 77th. Pretty good, considering how young they are too.
Them going from 11th best defense to 2nd best was the reason to me. But that was also not the only reason.
Banchero improved from his rookie seasons a lot, showing even more promise and potential. Franz Wagner continues to take gradual leaps(though had a very bad 3pt shooting season). Jalen Suggs just blossomed into a key player on both ends of the floor. Jonathan Isaac was playing basketball!
That’s why they were in game seven against the Cleveland Cavaliers — the furthest they’ve been in the playoffs since 2010. The playoffs did show some of the glaring holes and weaknesses, particularly offensively. Their defense was legit enough to make this whole series in the mud, but they lacked things on the other end.
But a lot was going right for the Magic. The best thing is that it’s only going to go up.
Their off-season was great too. They didn’t push their chips all the way through by getting a star player. They didn’t trade any assets to get better now. They added a needed veteran who can provide spacing and continue to solidify their defense in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They drafted another wing in Tristan da Silva at 18th.
Now, it’s all about hoping that their young stars can continue to take leaps and everyone else will follow.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Magic?
How good can this defense be?
What is their “death” defensive lineup?
Can Isaac play more and will he have a bigger role?
Is Pope enough to make a difference on offense with his spacing? How much will he make the defense better?
The leaps from Wagner and Banchero
Can their offense hit average levels?
What about the rest of the handful of young players?
The first thing I’m most interested in is how will their defense continue to look, especially with Pope. That’s not their issue. That’s not what will push them over the top to make a deep run(that’s the offense). How much better can they get defensively?
Per BBall-Index, amongst rotation defensive on-ball players(wing stoppers and point of attack), Pope ranked:
4th in ball screen navigation
1st in off-ball chaser defense
25th in passing lane defense
16th in perimeter isolation defense
18th in D-LEBRON vs role average
16th in matchup difficulty
The Magic didn’t have another guard that could do the things Pope could do. That backcourt of Suggs-Pope is going to be hell for opposing teams.
The Magic were already:
2nd in defensive rating per Cleaning the Glass
4th in live ball turnovers forced
2nd in opponent turnovers per 100
2nd in defensive rebounding percentage
2nd in opponent second chance pts per 100
The Magic had 12 lineups with at least 50 minutes. 8 of the lineups had a defensive rating under 110. Some lineup stats(the league average is 115.7):
Isaac/Suggs on: 102.7 DRTG in 183 minutes
Isaac on: 105.4 in 914
Suggs on: 112.8 in 2025
Suggs/Wagner/Banchero: 109.1 in 1325
Isaac/Wagner: 104.7 in 438
Isaac/Wagner/Mo: 103.9 in 263
A lot of combinations that are 10 points better than average. What’s funny about that is that it’s likely going to get better.
As you can see, a lot depends on Isaac. He only played 15.8 minutes per game in 58 games. But he was already the most impactful defender in basketball per D-EPM at +4.1.
Once he’s able to play 25-30, that’s going to be scary. But I also wonder what that is going to look like. It’s always tough to see how a player’s impact may translate with more minutes, more responsibilities, and in a different context. Can he sustain being this level of defender in a bigger role? Can he provide that impact but still bring something offensively too? That was a concern in the playoffs that became an issue.
This is where the fun for me comes in. I want to see how good this defense can be. I want to see the most suffocating brand of basketball and they have the players to do it.
They will likely again need to rely on their defense too to have a similar level of success. This won’t be what holds them back, but they can’t afford much slippage. I’m not sure if I would even want to have a considerable decline in defense in favor of the offense. Their identity and how they won games was because of the defense. Unless you can guarantee that whatever changes you can make will make the offense elite, it’s not worth the trade-off.
They need to remain a top 5 defense. I don’t think what they showed was a fluke or something that isn’t sustainable, so get ready for another suffocating offense full of forced turnovers in Orlando that’s only going to be better.
Everything comes down to their offense. Their floor and ceiling are raised on that end. Some of it is on their two best players needing to take leaps and improve drastically to raise the floor. And a lot of it is also on the rest of the team to give them a better environment to begin with.
Starting with the latter is where Pope comes in. He’s a 37% 3-point shooter for his career on just under 8 3s per 100. In his last five seasons, he’s shooting 40% on over 7. I wouldn’t say he has the volume of a high-volume shooter but he’s damn accurate. This isn’t someone that can be left wide open. He’s also shooting 41% from the corners in his career with almost 30% of his shots there. In these two seasons with Denver, he shot 41.5% from the corners with 37% of his 3s there.
Some stats per BBall-Index:
And this is what the Magic’s team looked like:
Pope will help this a lot with his shooting. The Magic had the 6th lowest 3pt rate and the 7th lowest 3pt accuracy. Not the best combination to have. Hopefully, both he and Suggs can make life a bit easier for everyone else.
But almost all of it will depend on the growth that both Wagner and Banchero may have. Yes, the context of the team will matter too. There’s only so much that you can do in the worst spacing. That said, there are also improvements beyond that.
Can Wagner’s 3-point shot bounce back? He shot 35% and 36% in his first two seasons. That dropped to 28%. He’s improved elsewhere though. He became more efficient from 2pt in each season. He now shot 57% from 2pt. He upped his free throws slightly(that has been steadily improving.
Without Banchero but with Wagner on, the Magic were +13.8 with a 125.2 offensive rating! Wagner averaged 26.8 points per 75 on 56.8% eFG and 60.9% TS with a 28.0% usage. Only 32% of his 2s were assisted and 60% of his 3s. The man couldn’t miss inside the arc:
70.9% at the rim with 42.8% frequency
51.3% within 4-14ft with 27.8%
50.0% beyond 14ft-3pt with 2.2%
That was only 538 minutes, so it’s a small sample, but I wonder how much of that is real and what will happen with more touches. He was second on the team in touches and in time of possession. Maybe he warrants to have a lot more touches and more responsibilities of running the offense.
He averaged 0.93 points per poss on 5.0 poss in the PNR. That’s good for the 70th percentile. In isolation, he scored 1.00 on 1.7, good for 67th.
He’s already looking like one of the better wings, not considering age. How big of a leap and how much he bounces back from 3pt shooting, can make this season for the Magic entirely different.
Then there’s Banchero. Out of him and Wagner, he’s the one that needs to take a bigger leap or have more changes to his game. I went through Banchero’s game when I wrote about him vs Paul George:
Obviously, the team’s situation makes it worse, but I also believe that Banchero is just as guilty of making the team’s offense be that bad. He hasn’t been an efficient player anywhere on the court. His shot selection and his shot profile have been anything but ideal. When it comes to the context of the team, we just talked about Wagner’s efficiency.
But he will still dominate the touches with the ball, rightfully so, too. He’s still an elite driver at that size and has improved as a passer. There’s more positives and potential than the negatives. There’s way more reason to feel optimistic.
This season will be about refining all parts of his scoring game. He can’t have that kind of volume with that shot diet and be that bad at it. He takes almost a quarter of his shots from beyond 10 feet inside the arc but is only making 0.814pts per shot. Even when you increase that range, he’s 253/638 beyond 4 feet. That’s 39.6%. Almost half of his offense is that. That matters a lot more when the foul drawing, nor the rim pressure is at a good enough level to offset that.
How that all develops. How much he can improve as a shooter to make those percentages better? How much he can fix the shot diet where he’s not settling for so many tough jumpers? How much he can balance taking a contested shot versus moving the ball? How much he can play without the ball to get easier looks at the rim with that size? How much he can improve with his passing?
All of these points will determine how far they will go. I don’t envision their offense changing drastically, but there are ways to get better because that’s needed.
That’s why I wonder if they can remain a top 5 defense with an average offense and one of Wagner or Banchero take a considerable leap, will that be enough for a deep run?
Without major changes to the team or huge leaps from both players, I don’t see them becoming a contender with that offense. But with reasonable improvements, it can be enough to be competitive.
Finally, there is still the rest of the team! We only really talked about four players here.
Suggs already made massive improvements last year, what is his season going to look like now? He was already in the 93rd percentile in EPM. He shot 40% from 3pt on almost 10 attempts per 100. He improved his 2pt% significantly from 49.6% to 55.6%. He adjusted his shot diet to have more than half of his shots from 3pt. That’s why he made a huge leap from 52.8% TS to 60.2%. He turned himself into an elite 3&D player.
He’s only going into his fourth year and has already made that kind of leap. IF he doesn’t improve, he can help contenders. But if he improves, he’s going to be an elite, elite role player who can do many things on the floor.
What about the young players: Silva, Anthony Black, Jett Howard, and Caleb Houstan? That’s four different 6’7 players or bigger. Howard basically didn’t play. Black played less than 20mpg. Houstan played under 15. What’s the role of these younger players? Will they get minutes? Can they carve something out for themselves? What’s the next step for some of them? How much will Silva see the court being a rookie?
The Magic may run into the trouble of having too many young players needing to develop but also wanting to be good and win. How do you balance that with getting young players reps and living with some of the growing pains or just doing what’s necessary to win?
What about the vets or older young players? There’s still Wendell Carter Jr, Gary Harris, Mo Wagner, and Cole Anthony. None of them should be safe from making any moves to get better. I wouldn’t say any of them are part of the core.
Should they consider moving on from Carter Jr for a better big? But who could that be.
I do wonder what the moves could be for the Magic to look to improve via trade. Will they even want to consider that to accelerate this core before the extensions kick in.
But right now, they have a year filled with so much potential and with so many things that can happen all at once. It’s the two young stars taking leaps. It’s making the defense more elite. It’s potentially having a deep run. It’s looking what else they have with the young core.
Predictions
45-50 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): Drop to the play-in. The offense isn’t any better with some drop-off defensively
Ceiling(best case scenario): Top 3 team in the East. Average offense and top 3 defense will carry them through the regular season
I don’t think their defense would regress much, but if the offense isn’t much better and they go from top 2 to around top 7, I can see that being big enough to drop a handful of games.
That will still be a decent team that won’t change much for their ceiling in the playoffs. They will be a good team that can easily win a round or perhaps two given the right matchups.
Their ceiling, though. Depending on how good their offense can be, I can see them be a top 3 team.
A lot of that can happen if Wagner's predictions come true. If he can take the leap to be the team’s best player where some of the small sample of him having high usage with high efficiency is real, then that raises their floor.
With that happening and an improved, refined version of Banchero, what would be the issue that holds them back? Neither of them has to be an All-Star to have the kind of impact to raise the floor of this team because there are two of them. Two wings that can complement one another and do a lot on their own are better than one.
And if players like Suggs improve too, I can talk myself into this.
I do want a move from them. There are players that they can improve on and they should take advantage. They should just go for it(within reason). Those extensions will kick in. You will have to pay Banchero, too. This is the time to maximize it in a similar way the Thunder have been doing. If by the deadline, there are clear signs of jumps from both wings, you make a move right now to help them.
Overall, I do like the Magic a lot this season. They should have the same elite defense. They should see Pope help them a lot on both ends of the floor. And there are way too many players that can improve that it’s unlikely that all of them won’t. That’s why, right now, I have them as a top 5 team in the East.