Portland Trail Blazers 2024-25 Season Preview

Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!

Season & Off-Season Recap

What is there to say about the Portland Trail Blazers? They traded their franchise player in Damian Lillard last year and have dived right into the whole rebuilding stage with a bunch of new, young players alongside some veterans. But that in the end resulted in winning 21 games and being the worst team in the West.

A lot of it was health issues too. Scoot Henderson missed 20 games. Deandre Ayton missed 27. Anfernee Simons missed 36. Jerami Grant missed 28. Robert Williams played only six games. All of this makes the season even more frustrating to watch. That’s why they had 17(!) players playing at least 20 games.

Their off-season was… okay? They drafted Donovan Clingan with the 7th overall pick. They traded picks for Deni Avdija. That was basically it. They’re essentially in the same place as they were a few months ago. Outside of a complete overhaul by trading their veterans, there wasn’t anything else that could’ve been done. I guess they have time to see which teams will give them the best possible return when they sell, instead of trying to do it all in the off-season.

Key Questions & Storylines!

• What do they do with all of the veterans?

• Will they find a team to get Grant?

• Should they move on from Ayton?

• How will Avdija look like here?

• Will Williams be healthy and go back to what he was?

• How much better will Henderson be in his second year?

• What will the other young players look like?

That leads to that first question for this season. What are they going to do with their veterans who are making a lot of money? They are over the cap. They have over 180m in salaries, per Spotract. Ayton is making 34. Grant is making 30. Matisse Thybulle is making 11 with a player option. Williams is making 13 — both Ayton and Williams are extension-eligible.

I’m almost certain that a lot will change here. What use do they have for Grant? Even Ayton at this point after drafting Clingan.

Statistically, Ayton had basically the same season he’s had in the last four seasons. He scores nearly 20 points per game, has a 20% odd usage, grabs a bunch of rebounds, and that’s it. Although his efficiency has been dropping too and that’s mainly with his shot profile changing.

Here’s his true shooting percentage over the last five years:

• 56.8% → 65.3% → 65.6% → 61.7% → 58.7%

It’s the lowest it’s been since his sophomore year. That’s one of the reasons his impact metrics also has been declining. That has to do with the offense: +0.6 → +1.4 → +2.3 → +0.1 → -0.4 in offensive EPM.

He’s negative for the first time in his career. A lot of that is due to his offense being a lot mid-range oriented. Over 40% of his shots are from the short mid-range(4-14ft) where he’s shooting 48% and nearly 25% are from the long mid-range(14ft+) where he shoots 51%. Both are respectable numbers, but they can’t make up over 60% of his diet. He’s still a very good rim finisher — 75% at the rim with a third of his shots there. He has made a lot of those looks a legit weapon for him. He averages 4.2 possessions as a roll man where he’s shooting 56.3%.

I wouldn’t say they need to move on from him unless they do get an offer that they can’t refuse. He’s still only 26 years old with solid skills as a big that should help them one way or the other. He’s neither a player that would be too good for them and will also stunt the development of their players, nor is he someone that a lot of teams will be looking to trade for, especially at that contract.

There is still value in having players that are legit NBA starting caliber players. You need some structure even when you’re looking to tank or develop players. Both Henderson and Simons need good big play and that’s as good as you’re going to get.

Now, when it comes to Grant, that’s where they should look to trade. I don’t see the need for him on this team. I wouldn’t say he’s on the kind of contract that would deter teams from looking to acquire him. He also has the skillset and ability to help good teams.

In these two seasons with the Blazers, he shot 40% from 3pt on over 7 attempts per 100! In the first year, he was also surprisingly efficient with 60.6% TS, he shot from the 3pt well and got to the line with a .375 free throw rate. He’s obviously not the best option to lead you in usage, though. He also fits the kind of player who can stunt or take away touches from other players who need it.

Whatever the best offer that they can get for him, they should pull the trigger immediately.

I’m not sure what should happen with Williams. In theory, and what he has shown in the past, it is 100% worth keeping. If that was the Williams they were going to get, then it would be dumb to even consider moving him, especially at the number that he’s on. But he’s never healthy. He missed basically all of the season. He played 35 games the year before. In his career, he played 215 games!

It’s also at this point that you probably question whether he can bounce back to the defender that he was and how efficient he was at play finishing. He’s a consistent 75%+ at the rim(he shot 87% in his last year with the Celtics). That’s why he was one of the elite players at finishing off cuts. Defensively, there was a reason he was going to likely be the DPOY in 2022 before getting injured.

Is that the player that you’re going to get, though? Even if it’s a slightly lesser version, that will be worth it. But if the injuries have taken a massive hit on him, then the best path would be to move on for whatever you can get.

And there’s Avdija who they traded some picks for. He’s still a young player on a very good deal. I like that for them.

Last year, he came off the bench for half of his games — he ended up starting 75 games, which was the most by any Wizard player and was tied for second in minutes per game. His other jumps included:

• 12.6 → 17.1 points per 75 possession

• 53.5% → 59.7% true shooting

• .285 → .340 free throw rate

• 16.7% → 20.2 usage

• 13.9% → 17.8% assist percentage

• 53.0% → 56.0% 2pt

• 29.7% → 37.4% 3pt

He even got to the rim more and was shooting nearly 71%. He’s only turning 24 in January!

Now, let’s get to the other young guys because that’s the main thing about their season.

Are we going to see a significant improvement from Henderson in his second year because that was rough considering everything? He shot 38% from the floor! Per BBall-Reference, he was dead last in true shooting points added with -160.6. That starts with his rim finishing at 47%. There are so many players with more attempts from the mid-range shooting better than that. Rookie or not, if players can make more shots from 15ft out on higher volume than within 4ft, that’s a big issue that has to be fixed immediately.

Out of 385 rookies since 2014, Henderson ranks 373rd in LEBRON — though, there are a handful of players that did similar or worse as rookies too, such as Darius Garland(384th), Zach LaVine(383rd), Collin Sexton(376th), Jalen Green(369th), Brandon Miller(367th), Devin Booker(357th). So, it’s not the end of the world. Because amongst rookies, here are some of the talent metrics:

That’s not bad at all. The finishing does stand out, but everything else looks to be on track just in terms of first-year players. He is still just 20 years old.

There’s still Sharpe in his second year, but only managed to play 32 games. That was still a significant drop off from what he was doing last year too. He got more shots(8.1 → 13.6) and that made his scoring jump from 9.9 → 15.9, but his efficiency died — 56% → 46% 2pt, 36% → 33% 2pt, 55% → 475 eFG.

Now, what about Simons? I do wonder what all of that will look like. He is going into his seventh season and is already 25. He had his most impactful season on offense per EPM at +2.9… but he also was the worst impactful defender with -3.5.

I still wonder what the ceiling is for him. He had three straight seasons with above-average efficiency from both eFG% and TS%m but that has dropped off this year. He doesn’t get to the rim. Doesn’t draw fouls(though he did have a career-high 5.6 FTA per 100 and a .213 free throw rate. He struggles scoring at the rim too with only 57% there. He’s still one of the better shooters in the league and that will have to continue — shot 43% on C&S 3s but only 35% on pull-ups.

Finally, we have Clingan, who comes in as one of the better defenders for them. The Blazers allowed the second-highest percentage at the rim with 70%. I’m sure having a massive guy in the paint(alongside Avdija) will certainly help that. Per Sam Vecenie, he was one of the most impactful defensive bigs in college over the two seasons. Opponents shot 41% at the rim with him on the court. Offensively, this is another case of having a solid big that will certainly help the guards’ life much easier.

Predictions

• 20-25 wins

• Floor(worst case scenario): Bottom of the league

• Ceiling(best case scenario): Bottom of the league but Henderson looks good!

Their season will probably look a lot like it did this year. They will be bad. They will be looking to get the top pick again.

Their season is all about the youth, increasing trade value for others, and eventually becoming sellers at the deadline. I’d be very surprised if Grant remains on the team or Thybulle.

With Ayton, I don’t see many teams lining up to get him and because of that, he will likely stay for the year. Right now, I also don’t see him making a significant jump to warrant wanting him for the long term, especially if the goal will be to develop Clingan for the long term — would you even consider playing both of them? Probably not.

Everything else, it all depends on the player’s development. It’s Henderson showing improvements all around, with the decision-making, shooting, turnovers, passing, and finishing. It’s looking all of that. It’s Simons getting better as a finisher, improving as a defender, and continuing to be a solid shooter, but becoming more of a threat off the dribble.

With all that said, I still expect them to be right at the bottom of the conference.