The Culture Report: The Butler Saga Continues, Outlook Going Forward & Some Recent On-Court Thoughts

Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. There will be additional breakdowns and pieces either on Simply Ballin or AUCH that dives in deeper into other topics and questions compiled here with additional thoughts. Following that is a Weekly Ramble to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.

This is another Culture Report that will be entirely different from the usual format, being still on holiday but still being a sicko and needing to put something out. And with so, so much stuff going on, I thought it would be a good idea to have a whole Heat Check on the games, the Butler saga, and the outlook going forward.

Also, next week will be another different format but one that will focus entirely on the whole basketball side that has happened in the last two weeks.

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The Butler Saga Continues

I don’t even know where to start. This all happened so kind of fast. I can’t remember what started all of this in the last week. I guess it’s Butler coming back from the injury and taking a one-legged 3pt and basically half-assing the rest of the way. But really, the first domino was probably down way before the season started in the off-season, but we don’t have to rehash all of that again.

That’s where one morning I wake up and see all of the post-game contents and how Butler has essentially requested a trade. He doesn’t have joy playing basketball anymore and he doesn’t see that happening in Miami. That’s bold. Basically saying I want to be anywhere but here is a choice.

We’ve had some share of wild comments from players about team’s direction, management, coaches, or whatever. The first one that comes to mind was James Harden calling Daryl Morrey a liar and repeating it in front of kids in China.

Now, we basically have Butler calling out Spoelstra and saying I’d rather find joy playing with Jordan Poole in Washington, Scoot in Portland, or have fun in Charlotte than stay in Miami. That’s not even about winning or money. It’s straight-up pulling an Eric Bledsoe saying I don’t want to be here.

Oh, and if that wasn’t enough the next morning, I found out that the Heat suspended him. That was a rollercoaster.

At this point, there isn’t going back. When the Heat released an earlier statement that they weren’t going to trade him and the whole thing with Shams was just smoke, I thought there was going to be a very good chance that they were going to ride it all out.

I had a rant about this whole situation here:

And I ended it at that I’d be very surprised if they traded him. A couple of weeks later I’d be very surprised if he’s on the team. What do you even do now? There was already friction and conflict before this blow-up. There was already the extension that he wanted. Butler was already answering questions that didn’t show any encouragement. Now, it’s all of that still in play and everything much worse.

Can you even reconcile after this? After the two half-assed games that clearly was trying to show something. Can you reconcile with Spoelstra after calling him out for the role that you’re in? Can you reconcile with the FO regarding the lack of an extension? Can you even reconcile with the teammates that you have been letting them down?

I can’t wrap my head around any of that being a reality. I think the ship has sailed with the Butler era. It’s now just a matter of finding the best possible package, whatever that might be.

That’s kind of looking hmm, though. There have been some suitors listed, some more than before, but even then it will depend on what the Heat wants to prioritize in getting back. They also make it clear that they want to stay competitive, whatever that is. There’s also the case of trying to maintain flexibility here.

Before this drama, there could’ve been a possibility that they could’ve ridden this out and hoped that Butler would opt out or work out a sign and trade. If that’s not an option, I don’t know how much of a choice the Heat have now. Are you really going to bring Butler here with the possibility that he’s going to opt in and complicate things?

Right now, he is still suspended but I wonder what happens when that ends and he is still on the team. Maybe the added pressure will make them look for a trade quicker but that’s not a good thing to be up against the wall like that. Maybe they are able to mutually agree that it’d be best for him to sit out as they look to work out a trade.

But… honestly, I still don’t know and wouldn’t be shocked if the Heat aren’t 100% locked into moving him. As wild as that is, there’s a part of me that wonders if they just don’t blink and go through not trading him instead of getting an offer they don’t like.

I’d still take what I can. Rip off the bandaid. Cut your losses. And try to get something that can help now(seeing as that’s the goal, which is a separate discussion), and potentially give you more avenues to do more moves in the future.

Outlook Going Forward

That brings us to what is going to happen in the next couple of months, post-deadline, the off-season, and going forward in the long-term.

Whatever happens, the goal has to be to fully move on from this build. It’s over. Done. The best way to end it is to not drag this out and trade Butler for the best possible offer that comes up. Whether that’s a combination of Smart/Konchar/Kennard/Clarker, Wiggins/Looney/Payton/Kuminga, VanVleet/Adams/Brooks/Smith, or anyone else that could come in play.

I’m listening to every offer and considering everything. There’s no option that isn’t on the table. If it’s a package full of picks, winnow players, tradeable contracts, or young projects. Any of these different types can help one way or the other, whether it’s having more draft capital, players to develop alongside your core, or players to flip for better stars.

But whatever happens, this is now entering a rebuild. It would have to be time to sell. I don’t know how likely that would be, given the Heat’s approach and philosophy. But if Butler is traded, that also has to mean Duncan and Rozier have to go too. Get whatever you can to go into the rebuild with more flexibility, more/better tradeable contracts, or any draft picks you can get.

It’s embracing the youth completely. It’s hitting the restore button to the 2017-2019 Miami Heat version. It would have more talent. It also has both a higher ceiling and floor. A team led by Herro and Adebayo is probably better than Whiteside and Goran.

That’s the reality going forward. It’s going into a different build. There’s no going back anymore or any other route to salvage this into being a contender right now.

They aren’t a contender. They won’t be a contender anytime soon either. It’s continuing to do the same thing they did previously. Looking to build a solid core whilst hoping they can find a disgruntled star to trade or sign.

The only issue with that is still acquiring the assets to do that. What are the chances they get into a similar position they were with Butler that landed him here?

And who even is on the market that could replicate something like that? Fox? Can Fox turn this core around? Because even IF they somehow manage to acquire such a player in a short period of time, without also overpaying, they are still far beyond contention.

THIS core wasn’t a contender the last two years with Butler, who’s been a better player. Since that game seven in 2022, they haven’t been in that tier and they had Butler playing like at top 7 player. That just shows the team around the best players needed so much work. If that core needed help, even a core of Fox/Bam/Herro would need so much more.

And to get that help, they are in a worse position than they are now. They owe at least 2 picks to the Thunder or Hornets in the next few years — the timing just changes depending on if they make the playoffs this year.

There’s also the whole thing with Adebayo being 27 already and his extension kicking in. You also add Herro being eligible for an extension. That complicates things with what you can and should do. It’s going to get a lot tougher to build a core that can compete if both Adebayo/Herro are earning even more money.

This is where I don’t get the approach from the Heat because I don’t get the goal.

Is it to compete with Herro/Adebayo as soon as possible? Is it hoping that you find a star to add to those two? Is it taking a longer approach with a rebuild?

The goal and approach feel directionless.

A team’s end goal is obviously to hopefully compete for the title but that will take time and you can go about it in so many different ways. I just don’t know what the Heat’s goal is and I think that mainly stems from always looking to be competitive, which can be a plus but also hurt you just as much.

That’s the most annoying thing about a team. It’s playing two approaches whilst not having enough for either approach.

The Heat don’t have a young, good enough core that you can simply let develop hoping for a Butler equivalent player to come. The top end players in that core also aren’t good enough at the price they will be soon. On top of that, they also don’t have as many assets to even improve the team.

Or they won’t be bad enough, nor have their full picks, to rebuild that way by getting higher talent in the lottery.

Hopefully, this all becomes clearer soon. It will have to start with whatever happens with Butler. That’s priority number one and it doesn’t matter what the package is at this point.

Heat Check

Finally, to end the report, let’s also have some actual basketball talk.

The Heat have lost two straight after winning four in the last five. Since the last Report, I don’t know if I’d say the Heat have been better period.

The last two games have been YIKES against the Jazz and the Pacers. The Pacers game showing once again that any time they face a competent offensive team, their defense isn’t that good.

Right now, the Heat are also 17-16 with a +0.1 net rating, which ranks 15th. Their offense dropped to 13th and defense to 15th. In the last two weeks, they are 4-3 with a -5.9 net and are 24th on offense and 17th on defense. They have been slipping.

It’s also interesting that in those 7 games, they are shooting 37% from 3pt but it doesn’t matter. The hot shooting hasn’t made the offense that much better.

The level of play just been disappointing on both ends. The whole Butler playing but not playing was a factor too. But for the most part, it’s just been bad and poor effort.

There have been a few things that have stood out.

There’s more Jovic being involved and I liked that a lot. In those 7 games, he’s averaging 11.6 points and 4.3 assists, whilst also shooting 52% from 3pt on 3.9 attempts.

There’s been a lot more Jovic PNRs. A lot more actions with him going to the post and him making the decisions. That’s exactly what you should be doing with the season not mattering in terms of winning,

Herro is still lighting it up shooting almost 39% on nearly 8 3s in that same span.

But that’s really it. And all of this might continue to get worse. Even with Butler not playing as well as he usually have done, they have needed him to play well.

In 22 games with him playing, the Heat are 12-10 with +4.1 net rating and 116.6 ORTG. With him specifically on, that number goes up to +5.1 and 120.1 ORTG.

But in 11 games he didn’t play(this doesn’t include the Nuggets/Thunder game where he technically played), they are 5-6 with -4.5 net and 108.8 ORTG. Even in games he plays, the Heat are only +2.3 with a 110.6 ORTG when he sits on the bench.

The offense disappears without him and it also doesn’t matter if other top players are on the court. With Herro/Bam on and no Butler, they are -5.6 with 106.4 ORTG.

This is going to be how it is even if Butler nets you 2-3 quality role players. You don’t replace a player who is at the top of every impact metric, is smart, is the team’s best finisher, gets to the rim, best foul drawer, most efficient, and so many things that make Butler great with role players and expect similar results. 2-3 role players don’t have the same impact even if there are more of them as one great talent that also fits.

The upcoming games is going to be a stretch certainly. It’s first six straight games all on the road at Sacramento, Golden State, Utah, Portland, and Los Angeles twice.

Then to top off the rest of January, Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Orlando, and Cleveland.

This can easily be a bad stretch for them, considering how they’ve been looking lately. This road stretch, though, with Butler suspended can tell you a lot what the team is going to look like for the rest of the year.

And that is all for this week’s Report. It will be one more week of unusual formats before getting back to actual analysis and breakdowns.