The Culture Report: The kids are hooping & takeaways from this stretch
Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. There will be additional breakdowns and pieces either on Simply Ballin or AUCH that dives in deeper into other topics and questions compiled here with additional thoughts. Following that is a Weekly Ramble to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.
We are back from the holidays. I just spent the last three days rewatching all of the games that I missed, so in the next couple of days, a lot of content will be out going through all of that basketball. But for this week’s report, here are some main thoughts and takeaways from this stretch.
The Heat currently sit at the seventh spot with a 19-17 record. They are 13th in net rating with +0.6, per CTG, and are 16th on offense and 11th on defense. But at this point, I don’t know how much that matters. This isn’t a season to be aiming for the best possible seeding or have big playoff aspirations. It’s focusing on the development and everything else. But as it is with the Heat, they will continue to look to be competitive but even with that, the focus is on the long term.
Side note. This will still be mostly without any film breakdowns or much use of clips in general. I’m still working through all of the games and all of the clips recording.
The kids are hooping & that’s important
If there was one thing that has been a pleasant experience is seeing all of the young core playing much better. Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr, and Kel’el Ware have seen an increase in their usage, production, and on-ball responsibility. So far, they have also answered.
I’ve been liking all of their minutes and how they have looked given the fact they have been trusted to do more, especially without Jimmy Butler.
For the season, here are some of their stats without Butler playing:
Jaquez: 15.7 points per 75 on 56.0% TS with 20.4% USG. He’s shooting 54.6% from 2pt, including 60.1% at the rim with 34.7% freq and 51.2% within 4-14ft. He’s also adding 4.7 assists
Jovic: 18.0 points on 59.8% TS with 19.3% USG. He’s shooting 51.8% from 2p and 36.8% from 3pt
Ware: 15.7 points on 64.5% TS with 17.0% USG. He’s shooting 69.2% from 2pt
They have been stepping up with more touches. It’s been working too. Let’s dig into each of their games.
Starting with Jovic, he has been arguably the most impressive. He has scored in double digits in four straight games — the first time in his career. Here are some of his games in this two week stretch:
11pts, 6rebs, and 5asts vs Jazz
20pts, 6rebs, and 4asts vs Warriors
17pts, 3asts, 2stls, and 2blks vs Jazz
18pts, 7rebs, 6asts vs Rockets
Part of that comes from being used a lot more. In the last nine games, he is averaging 67.9 touches per 36 minutes and has 2.4 times of possession, including 2.86 average seconds per touch. He is asked to do more with the ball in his hands. The touches and time of possession have been trending upwards.
He has been running a lot more PNRs, particularly with Ware. On that note, Ware-Jovic lineups are +14.8 net with a 121.4 ORTG in 134 minutes for the season. It’s still a small sample, but it has been working. In those minutes, Jovic is averaging 19.0 points per 75 on 51.8% eFG and 58.3% TS.
Even outside of just added responsibility, he has looked a lot more aggressive when running things. His drives have felt better. He got downhill a lot more. There are clear signs of progress and improvement over the season too. One thing that has stood out is being more in control when attacking.
It’s also using him more as the decision maker. There’s been plenty of times where he has been used in the post and that’s a great thing. Jovic is probably the best on the team when it comes to passing, decision making, and processing speed combined. When he gets into the post, he will most often make the right read. That’s what stood out in general. His passing has been so nice to watch. He makes reads that maybe one or two players can do so on the team.
Overall, I’ve been loving on-ball Jovic in this stretch.
Moving on Jaquez. He’s had a rough start to his sophomore year, but he has looked like he’s trending upwards. Similar to Jovic, he has also seen an increase in usage and touches. In the last four games, he is averaging 16.8 points. 6.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists on 62.9% TS. That is Jaquez getting back on track.
This has been the most Jaquez has been used on-ball as far as I can remember. In those four games, he has 3.9 time of possession, 3.61 average seconds, and 3.19 average dribble — for comparison, that brings him closer to similar tracking as Paul George, Zach LaVine, Russell Westbrook, and Jimmy Butler.
Looking at the last nine games, there’s still things to improve with Jaquez, such as his rim finishing. He’s still only shooting 58.3% with 30.0% frequency. But he’s also shooting 50.0% within 4-14ft. He has been much better scoring inside the paint and gets there at a high volume.
Jaquez played a key role last year being highly efficient where he was able to get to the rim at will, create space in the paint, and consistently get both feet in the paint to do something. That has looked better. There still needs to be things ironed out with the decision making and what comes after getting the paint touch, but it’s still a good sign to see him be able to do that as consistently as he has done.
These two playing better and showing more signs of development is the thing to watch out for. That’s what the season is about. It’s hoping they can not only bounce back but continue to get better and improve in all of the little things.
Finally, we also have Ware. Since the Thunder game, he has been the Heat’s reliable backup big. In those 11 games, he is averaging 8.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 0.8 assist in 16.3 minutes per game. He has been a very nice surprise.
Based on expectations and being a rookie that’s getting his first major stint of the season, I don’t think there’s been much of major concerns or criticisms. The only thing that did stand out in that area is the rebounding and boxing out. That has been a red flag.
But offensively, I’ve really liked what I’ve been seeing. He does his job well. He finishes at the rim. He’s able to get lobs. He rolls hard. He has been willing to shoot and has been making them — shooting 9/21 for the season.
There were three games with garbage time minutes and he looked good in those too. There was the game against the Pacers where he had 25 points on 6/7 2pt, 3/4 3pt, and 4/5 ft. Garbage time or not, that is great to see.
A fun stat! He’s scoring 1.34 points per poss as a roll man!
The team also wins his minutes by a good margin. The Heat are +6.3 in 248 minutes with a 118.4 ORTG and 112.1 DRTG. But one thing pops up. Opponents are shooting 70.5% with him on… but the rim frequency is also only 21.4%.
This is something I’ll go over watching, but from the first go, it does match the eye test. There have been many instances where his presence as deterred opponents well. On the other hand, he has also shown instances where he’s not in the right position or is late and his actual rim protection isn’t as elite. Opponents shoot 60.0% within 6ft against Ware, which is only -0.2% worse than expected.
Still, this has been his first stretch where he is the backup big regularly.
The flashes and signs for each of the young players that they’ve shown in this stretch has been great.
Heat Check
The kids hooping has been the biggest big that’s been going on with the Heat. It certainly hasn’t been winning or producing great results. They are 3-3 in January. They are 6-7 in the last month. Things continue to trend downwards. In that span, they are also 25th on offense and 11th on defense with a -3.4 net rating. Some of the losses were just disgusting. That 36 point blow out against the Jazz is something that I don’t want to even remember.
But I still don’t know how to feel about this season, especially going forward. A lot of that has to do with the direction of this team. They are stuck in limbo once again. The whole thing with Butler that continues to be a talking point isn’t helping either.
Everything comes down to expectation and direction. The Heat are constantly making clear that the goal is to be competitive, which obviously means valuing winning over potential development or better potential assets.
That does make a difference because of coaching decisions. Is Spoelstra looking to put out lineups that are looking to win? How many mistakes can a player play through before getting benched? What is the scheme offensively? Is it running through your best players because you need to win or is it running through everyone equally to give everyone reps?
All of that matters and those decisions are made more difficult if the goal is to be competitive. If that wasn’t the goal, there isn’t anything stopping Spoelstra from being more free in doing whatever with the lineups that also prioritize development. Go crazy.
There needs to be less pressure or expectation on anything, as well as a focus on the long term that is in the rebuilding stage.
Because right now, they can be good enough doing what they’ve been doing to remain in this same spot and look to make the playoffs. They are good enough to run more high usage stuff for Herro and Adebayo to be competitive. But that’s doing what exactly for the long term?
There are still a handful of games before Butler comes back from the suspension. But that just raises more questions than it answers. What does that look like once he’s allowed to play? Will he play again? Because I don’t think that’s a good idea.
If the goal is to transition into a different build and era, Butler shouldn’t be playing anymore. They made their bed once all of this blew up and he got suspended. It’s not going to be easy just inserting him into the lineups again. Even if he doesn’t troll, and is fully engaged, that makes a bigger difference. This isn’t incorporating a role player that can just seamlessly do whatever.
With the choice to play through more of the young players and already playing a lot more through Herro, that decision has been made and it’s closed. This should be the direction going forward instead of backtracking into whatever they were doing previously.
The only reason I can see them wanting to bring back back Butler fully is if they keep either fooling themselves that they can compete or even if that option is better than rebuilding and going for the lottery pick instead.
I just hope that this is all taken care of fast. Basketball-wise or off-court. I don’t see how any of this can be good with him coming back.
Moving forward, I expect to see more of the same thing we’ve been seeing. More Jaime. More Jovic. Get them more on-ball reps to work with Herro in different ways. Now, the other question is going to be how Adebayo will fit with that because his offense has been frustrating to watch recently too.
This is the part of the season where they need to embrace this. I don’t need to be seeing Terry Rozier minutes be that high. I don’t need to be seeing Jovic or Jaquez being benched. I don’t need to see them always making the decisions to hopefully compete. The goal needs to be to figure out what you have with this team.
They still have three days on this road trip meeting the Blazers, Clippers, and Lakers before coming back home for three games. The focus shouldn’t be winning. The focus needs to be on what they are doing now.
The Heatle Things
Herro has been getting a lot more defensive attention(we’ll be breaking that down later in the week). The defenses are blitzing him, aggressively doubling, and doing everything to take the ball out of his hands. The question now will be how will both Herro and the team counter that
The Heat don’t want to crash the glass at all offensively. In the last month, they are dead last with 21.9% ORB. For the season, that would rank 29th, only 0.3% ahead of the Bucks
Highsmith is having a career year across the board. A career high in TS% with 61.4%, 3pt% with 41.0%, 2pt% with 59.2%, rim FG% with 69.7%, EPM with -0.1, and DPM with +0.2. He’s shooting the ball well. He’s finishing inside a high level. Impact metrics are trending upwards, particularly on the offensive end. He has developed into a key impactful two-way wing
Duncan is scoring 1.09 points per possession on 1.7 PNR poss. He has a 65.6% eFG. He’s in the 89th percentile! That’s also 16.2% of his offense as the ball handler. In the last two seasons, he has been a solid secondary option to attack
Another Duncan stat but he’s leading the team in points per poss as the roll man at 1.39. Whenever he’s used as a screener, good things happen
In the last month, Adebayo-Duncan have played 19.2 minutes per game. But in the last five games, that has dropped to 11.8. Spoelstra is doing the thing again where we’re breaking up the best duo
The Heat have the best ORTG off a timeout at 122.8. That’s mainly because they also lead the league in TOV% at 8.6 in those situations — for comparison, the Thunder lead the league for the season at 11.9%
Since Rozier became a starter again, the Heat are -2.8 net with a 98.0 ORTG in 125 minutes with him on. The Rozier-Herro lineups are -17.1 with a 90.3 ORTG in that span
I’ll be going through Rozier’s shooting in more detail, but here are two tweets showing a bunch. Here’s a tweet with his 3pt%, C&S 3pt%, and PU 3pt% over the years, as well as some metrics that prediction/project. And here’s his rolling average in each season since 2018