The Culture Report: Ware gets his chance, Herro's case for ASG & MIP
Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. There will be additional breakdowns and pieces either on Simply Ballin or AUCH that dives in deeper into other topics and questions compiled here with additional thoughts. Following that is a Weekly Ramble to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.
Quick side note for this week’s and upcoming ones, the game content with thoughts and breakdowns will be slightly different and shorter. It’s the holiday season and I won’t be around to watch/rewatch games to get all of the clips. This will be more focused on the discussion and what’s going on around the team, rather than the games.
Another note. I’m a perfectionist, so I “need” to post these reports one way or the other, but until January 7th, they may be a few days late here and there.
What’s Been Heating Up
We’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the games, a bunch of film and Xs & Os, and any newsworthy topics that arise during the week. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.
Games of the week:
97-104 LOSS vs Oklahoma City Thunder
114-121 LOSS vs Orlando Magic
110-95 WIN vs Brooklyn Nets
Key stats:
ORTG: 123.3(121.1, 111.1, 100.0)
DRTG: 113.1(100.0, 122.2, 109.5)
eFG%: 56.2% vs 52.0%
TOV%: 17.1% vs 14.4%
ORB%: 21.9% vs 25.3%
FTr: 29.6 vs 20.3
Player stats:
Weekly Game Thoughts
After just one game last week, we’re back to the normal schedule(and a bunch of 3 games in 4 nights kind of schedule).
We started off the week with the Thunder, which was meant to be one of the main tests for the Heat. I was curious to see how they’d go about their offense going against a defense filled with length and can switch a lot.
Unfortunately, it didn’t start off great with a Butler injury around half way through the first quarter. Losing your best player that early in the middle of the game just changes everything.
The rest of the game was how you might think it was going to be. The Heat didn’t have the 3pt shooting that night, where they shot 12/40 and without that, they will struggle to get the offense up. A lot of that came down to both Herro and Robinson combining for 6/21 — two players were responsible for half the makes and half the attempts, and they shot 28%.
What also didn’t help is having 18 turnovers, but that’s also the Thunder’s defense doing what they do best.
They were able to hold the Thunder to a poor game, where they had a 109.5 DRTG. Despite the Thunder going 14/34 from 3pt, they weren’t able to score at will. A lot of their points came in the mid-range where they shot 5/17.
But in the end, the defense can carry you so much. The Heat had 95.8 ORTG in the third and 108.0 in the fourth. You’re not going to win many games unable to get buckets down the stretch.
Moving onto one of the worst games in the last few seasons for the Heat — worse than the Memphis Grizzlies game a year ago.
Obviously, there aren’t any guaranteed wins but this was as close as it should’ve been for countless reasons.
Franz Wagner was out. Paolo Banchero was out. Jalen Suggs was out. Gary Harris was out. Mo Wagner left the game after only playing 1:34 due to injury. Wendell Carter Jr was ejected after playing 12:58. The only starter playing was Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
That alone should’ve been a good reason you win, but this doesn’t stop here.
The Heat had a 25-point lead in the second quarter and entered the third with a 20 point lead. The Magic did go on a little run to cut the lead to 10, but the Heat responded to close the quarter and to push it back to 22 points.
Then the fourth quarter happened.
I don’t know what’s worse. Scoring 8 points, blowing the 22-point lead, or letting the Magic score 37 on 14/23 shooting. If we also include the third, how are you letting Cole Anthony go off for 27 points with 8 assists on 11/18 shooting in 22 minutes?
The Heat looked shocked in the fourth. The only players to make a field goal was Smith in transition and Adebayo on a post up late. You also add five turnovers to that.
Everything was just wrong with that quarter.
This honestly is one of those games that you’d probably want to just forget as soon as possible. You take the loss and make sure that kind of play never happens again.
Luckily, they did get the dub against the Nets, but damn, it also shouldn’t have been that close, to begin with. This was a one-point game at the half. This was only a five-point game to start the fourth.
The first half was all about the 3s. That was a big reason why they were up and put up points. They shot 11/24(46%). Robinson led the team with 14 points, including 4 triples. That was enough to give the Heat enough boost to stay in the game despite only going 5/14 in the paint.
That was also the reason the Nets were in the game. Their only weapon was shooting those 3s.
But the second half was pretty impressive too. They responded. They did what they had to do and didn’t blow anything. That’s important. After the kind of finish against the Magic, they didn’t let go of anything.
I was quite impressed with Herro’s decision-making in the second half that got him his 6 assists. He didn’t have a great game scoring, only 18 points on 5/6 2pt, and 2/7 3pt, but he felt more in control and still managed to do everything else being the ball handler.
Kel’el Ware had another game where his impact was shown. Finishing on lobs. He also had some great plays on the defensive end, where he blew up a lob and did a good job as a weakside rim protector.
We also saw Adebayo give you 23/7/7 on 8/10 from inside the arc and 7/8 from the line. An aggressive Adebayo looking for his shot was on display in the fourth
Heat Check
Here is a weekly ramble where it’s me simply ranting about the Heat and giving a “heat” check on them. No plan. No script. There’s not much analysis or breakdowns here. It’s me giving my thoughts and opinions on the state of the team and where I’m at with them. Plus some additional thoughts I may have that could be interesting or anything newsworthy to add.
Last week, I finished the report saying “right now, it’s just making sure to keep afloat and not lose any games that they shouldn’t”.
The Thunder game wasn’t a disappointment or a game they blew, but they were also right there. The Thunder struggled to score. This easily could’ve been a game that they stole against better competition without Butler. Those kinds of games helps a lot in the standings.
But it’s also games like the Magic that you really can’t lose. Those are the games that will hurt in the long term. They’re currently sitting sixth at 14-13. That’s around 2 games back from 10th. That’s also 3 games back from fourth. It’s going to be a tough, tight race where games from December will matter.
That’s going to be difficult with your best player missing time after getting ill after rolling an ankle.
On that note, the Heat are 3-4 without Butler and have a -1.0 net in 341 minutes with a 111.7 ORTG. Even when you include simply him off the court when he plays, there is a significant difference:
Butler on: +7.1 in 627 minutes with 120.0 ORTG & 112.9 DRTG
Butler off: +0.3 in 343 minutes with 108.6 & 108.3
If the Heat want to avoid the play in, he has to play more. They are a very different team without him. They’ve been closer to out of the play-in caliber team without him and that’s even with some of the competition that they have gone against. They need him badly.
Herro has been having a rough stretch shooting the ball. He’s averaging 22.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists in the last four games but is only shooting 27.9% on 10.8 3s. He’s even shooting 73.7% from the line. That’s why he has a 48.1% eFG and 51.2% TS in the last week or so.
The shooting will likely bounce back but it’s the finishing inside that has also stood out. He’s shooting 20/36(55%) from 2pt in that stretch. If we look at his December stretch, it’s 46/76(60%). That’s exactly what is needed.
One concerning part about the team, though, is the lack of anyone else doing something. In December, Herro is the only averaging more than 19 points(24.5). When you also consider that they’re without Butler, there’s who else offensively that can reliably create? That’s why in December without Herro, the Heat are -2.3 net with a 109.2 ORTG.
Let’s now get into two topics that got more buzz recently.
Kel’el Ware gets his chance & role going forward
Ware in these last two games received more playing time and it has looked good. There are things that you literally can’t teach and that’s being 7ft, long and can jump. Those traits alone give him something no one else on the team has.
For the year, Ware has some wild on/off numbers, which right now I wouldn’t look much into but still worth pointing out. The Heat are +15.7 net in 100 minutes with 111.8 ORTG. The big thing is on defense where it’s 96.2 DRTG and opponent shoot 47% from inside the arc.
But again, a lot of it is garbage time, so I wouldn’t look into the numbers that much. Though, even per CTG, it’s still +11.3 with a 105.0 DRTG.
The good news is that it’s not a disaster. Not having bad numbers in itself is a positive sign, even if he, himself, may not be a huge reason why. At least, it’s not a liability that can’t be neutral. Considering he is also a rookie that barely gets playing time, it’s even better.
In these two games, he was in the regular rotation and wasn’t kept out until garbage time. That’s also another sign of things to come.
That brings us to the question of what is his role going forward? How much time should he see regularly on the court? Should he be a regular back up big? Will we see Adebayo-Ware minutes anytime soon?
At this point, I am camp “just give him minutes and see”. I don’t think there’s an issue with how Spoelstra approaches playing rookies.
There’s been this conversation that Spo doesn’t like playing rookies but this is also the same Spo that played Jaime Jaquez big minutes just last year. This is also the same Spo that had Herro play big minutes in the PLAYOFFS as a rookie. And this is also the same rookie that had Nunn and Robinson start(though Robinson wasn’t technically a rookie) in that same year.
This was similar to Jovic last year. If you want to be on the court, you either have to be a damn elite specialist that has some elite skill that works with everyone or you got to give something on defense. This means not missing rotations, not being out of place, not looking lost, getting back in transition, boxing out etc. These little things need to happen consistently to stay on the court.
That’s why I haven’t seen the issue with Ware not playing period, especially when the times he did, there wasn’t a lot of the above.
The tools and the potential is there for him. It really comes down to his work. There’s nothing about his skill or physical attributes that would prevent him from playing the way he needs to stay on the court.
But right now, that’s about it. There doesn’t need to be any overreaction because I’m seeing that a lot.
We also don’t need to see Adebayo-Ware lineups because what does it do, really? After all of the talks about Adebayo and being too small, it just feels like wanting to be big and finally have someone bigger than Adebayo for the sake of it.
Playing two non-shooters(Adebayo is still a non shooter essentially) isn’t a way in 2024. I also wouldn’t have Ware’s defense at a good enough level to either defend comfortably in drop at a higher usage or be the roamer. Plus who are you taking out of the lineup? It’s not breaking up Herro-Robinson, it’s not Butler and it shouldn’t be Highsmith either because he is needed for the POA defense.
For the time being, Ware should just be getting ~15 minutes per game to continue to develop and learn on the fly. That’s the best way to learn. What shouldn’t happen is seeing all of the reactionary takes that he needs to be starting or getting a lot more minutes and playing with Adebayo. There’s no need to get ahead of ourselves — we did this with Jovic and he went back to the bench after getting DNPs and we also did this with Jaquez
Herro’s buzz for ASG and MIP
I just want to briefly touch on this because the more in-depth All-Star case is in the works but there’s been a lot more buzz around this and wanted to get some thoughts out before.
As of now, in December, this should be honestly very likely that he makes it, and deservedly so. I don’t know what the argument against him could be. He has a solid case by itself but it’s also considering that relative to the competition that should have him over a couple of candidates.
Who even is the competition?
Giannis/Towns/Tatum/Mitchell/Brunson are locked and are likely to be the starters
Lillard
Cunningham
Brown
Garland
Wagner
LaVine
Trae
Siakam
These are the likely candidates. I’d probably have Herro’s season over Cunningham and Brown.
Herro has been the Heat’s best player. He has played every game. He has made significant jumps to his efficiency across the board. He has been one of the top shooters in the league. He has a +3.9 O-EPM, which is higher than Wagner, Irving, Haliburton, Mitchell, Durant, Young, Davis, Lauri, White, LaVine, Maxey, Fox, Ja, and so on.
The Heat’s offense is 116.6 with him on and 110.2 without him. That’s a difference between 7th and 26th.
The All-Star game isn’t about who’s going to be better. It’s not about if you can win with the player in the playoffs. It’s not about anything else apart from who is playing good basketball period. What Herro has been doing has been highly important for the Heat and he’s a big reason why they are where they are.
That is what generally has mattered in All-Star voting.
But he might also be in consideration for MIP. The general box score stats haven’t seen the usual leap that we’ve seen before — they only went 21/5/4 to 24/6/5. A three-point increase isn’t MIP-worthy by itself.
But also jumping from 48% to 56% inside the arc. Becoming a more dangerous shooter on higher volume. Going from 53% to 58% eFG and 56% to 62% TS.
His improvements don’t come from just stats. How you get the stats is also an improvement. Herro’s ~21 points last year on tough middys, isn’t the same as getting ~24 getting to the rim and letting it fly from 30ft. His assists also don’t show better decision-making and better reads in general.
We’ll be going through this case a lot more soon!
The Heatle Things
To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stats, lineups, plays, actions, or anything that I found fun, as well as compiling some other content that I found interesting.
Despite being in the top 10 on offense, the Heat are still somehow doing it, being 25th in 2pt%, 14th in eFG, 17th in TS, and 23rd in rim FG%. That’s weird
Rozier has been having a ROUGH shooting stretch. His last four games include 2/7, 1/4, 1/4, and 1/6 from 3pt
They’ve been turning the ball over a lot more recently and also forcing turnovers a lot less. Here’s their TOV% by month: 12.2% → 13.1% → 14.5%. Here’s their opponents TOV%: 16.1% → 15.9% → 14.6%
Adebayo has been shooting much better in the last four games. He’s scoring 19.5 points per game on 58% shooting. But it is interesting that his assists have dropped to 2.8. He didn’t even record an assist against the Magic. He’s only had five such games in the last five seasons.
After taking the leap last year in diversifying his offense, Robinson is still having over 15% of his offense as a ball handler in the PNR and is scoring 0.93 points per, which ranks in the 66th percentile