The Heat Report: Heat’s Starters, Bam-Ware Minutes, Bam’s Offensive Development

How many minutes should Bam-Ware see, Heat's starters & a conversation about Bam's offensive development

Welcome to The Heat Report(name maybe still in progress)! A weekly, semi-regular thoughts, discussion & analysis of the Miami Heat. This is the place for you to get up to speed with everything that’s important, interesting, or simply fun — whether that’s news, specific games, box-scores, actions, plays, signings, trades, trends, financials, schemes — and digging deeper into the how’s and why’s through film breakdowns, stats, and analysis.

Who Should Start for The Heat

So, seeing as the team is pretty much set, at least for now, I’ve decided to look into who should be starting for them, plus some other lineup data.

I went into more detail in a separate piece that you can find by clicking on the link in the heading! But here, let’s give you a quick summary of the main points.

The first question is the biggest question and that’s will we even have enough health to have a consistent, reliable starting lineup. The Heat had 35 different starting lineups and their most common one played 14 games! That’s both the highest number of lineups in the last five years and the lowest number of games for the most common lineup.

But beyond health, it’s is Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson starting. Those are the only two options. Because the other 4 are set for me — Terry Rozier, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo.

We don’t have any data for Herro and that four. They never played with Jovic. But, those four alone were minus 1.3 in 118 minutes with 117.9 ORTG and 119.2 DRTG. The starting 5 with Robinson was worse: minus 6.3 in 181 minutes with 111.7 ORTG and 118.0 DRTG.

Both lineups need a lot of context and things that have to be thought about in a vacuum and how it could work in theory if certain things happen. That includes, both Herro and Rozier playing more off-ball, Butler being more engaged, being healthy, and having Butler lead them in usage and touches.

Here are some other lineup stats:

Go check out the piece for more on some of these lineups!

What should each player improve on!

Five Reasons Sport this week came out with their three part series on what each player should improve on heading into the season. So, I thought it would be a good idea to do the same thing. I dug into some of the points they made, provided some stats and added my own thoughts on what their improvements or additions to their game should be.

I went into more detail for each key player that you can check out clicking on the heading above!

• Tyler Herro: Improve finishing at the rim, embrace physicality to draw more fouls, adjust shot diet & lean into more off the catch significantly

• Terry Rozier: Embrace more of an off-ball role, be more of a passer, adjust the shot diet

• Jimmy Butler: increase the 3pt volume off the catch, bounce back in the mid-range efficiency & improve as a passer

• Bam Adebayo: Improve the range in various ways, become a legitimate 3pt threat, improve the handle, post work & a more balanced approach in being a scorer & a passer

• Jaime Jaquez Jr: Improve spot up 3pt shooting, become a pull up threat, get a floater in the paint, be more in control attacking

How Much of Adebayo & Ware Should We See?

So, there was this poll on my timeline by Lu:

As always, this sparked a conversation on my timeline and I went digging again to see how that would even work.

Because of the players that we had start next to Adebayo, people are so thrilled to have someone that is bigger than 6’5 potentially playing next to him. But getting size isn’t the only thing that’s needed here. The players need to have the needed skillset to even fit!

Everyone uses other teams being bigger, which is 100% true but they aren’t comparable to the Heat’s situation:

These are the main, good teams that have size in their frontcourt. These are some of the teams that do play 2 “bigs”, but that’s only if you consider position by the players’ size and not their skillset.

I don’t see a team like the Wolves playing two “bigs” on offense. Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns aren’t playing the same role or occupy the same spots on offense. That’s the same elsewhere too with Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford.

That’s why I did this:

I looked into all those teams and saw how each big differs in their play types, screening, and 3pt volume. There is a clear difference in each of those players.

So, the question of whether Adebayo and Ware should start depends entirely on where either player fits on that chart above.

It may be too reductive, but a good indicator as to who’s the “traditional big” on offense is by the combination of volume of screening, 3pt volume, and spot up frequency vs cut/dumpoff/putback frequency. Those have been good indicators that make a clear distinction.

And in pretty much all cases, there aren’t two bigs that do the same thing(outside of the the Cavaliers).

Take the Celtics who have neither big setting high amount of screens in the first place or either have high cut frequency. Both have high 3pt volume and also check out Horford’s spot up being over 50% of his shots!

Now, look at the Wolves(who are seen as playing two bigs). It’s only Gobert that does the screening, cutting, rolling, and has putbacks. Towns and Naz Reid COMBINE for only 2 screens, 10% cutting, 11% putback and 23% used in PNRs. But again look at their 3pt volume and spot ups. They’re used more on the perimeter.

It’s a similar thing with the Knicks, Pacers, Bucks, Mavericks. I also included other “bigger” players, such as Jaren Jackson Jr, Lauri Markkanen, and Chet Holmgren where they are these 7fters but aren’t playing entirely of this traditional, non spacing big.

Right now, Adebayo has been in a role of a traditional big whether it’s on or off-ball. He’s been used as a primary screener or hub. He does have a high cut/dumpff/putback frequency because he is in the dunker spot. And that spot up freq is 4th lowest ahead of only clear bigs.

I also envision Ware to be in a similar role too, even if he has some spacing ability. I don’t believe he’s coming into the league chucking up 3s even at the same volume as someone like Wendell Carter Jr(the same as Meyers Leonard did in 2020).

Someone HAS to be in that role, though. Someone needs to at least put up 6–7 3s per 100. Someone does need to have a high spot up frequency, so that their off-ball placement can be around the perimeter.

This is where the reluctance comes from. This isn’t an agenda against wanting taller players. This isn’t an agenda against wanting Bam to be in a different role. It’s simply skepticism based on what we’ve seen so far from Adebayo when it comes to his game.

How realistic is it to expect him to at least have a shot profile closer to Naz Reid? Because if it’s not close, then I just don’t see the vision, especially as a starter.

The only way I can see that vision is you’re really high on either player being close to Reid, Horford, Turner, Lopez, Washington, Jackson Jr, or Holmgren.

When it comes to Adebayo, that’s not adapting his game slightly, that’s reworking his entire game drastically! It’s not realistic to expect such a turnaround. And for Ware, based on the summer league and the comps that he had, that’s also doesn’t seem as likely.

Then there are also defensive concerns. I have my doubts whether Ware can be an impactful enough defensive player in a big role defending the PNRs in various schemes and be able to switch as a rookie early on.

So, that does eliminate the chances of starting for me. I don’t think that would be a good idea for the team that does want to win. I don’t see either player being ready for that role in 12–15mpg.

But I do want to see the lineup. I do at least want to see that in spot minutes to simply see how Adebayo will look offensively and whether there is a clear change in his game. If he comes out and takes 4–5 3s and adjusts the playtypes, where he is on the court, and how he gets his looks, then that alone will be encouraging. Same thing with Ware. Having him next to Adebayo on defense should make those minutes better and give him a more of a safety net.

This is all just in spot minutes. That’s where you can see if there are positive signs or if there are still issues. There is absolutely zero reason for them to start together. I honestly can’t see a single one because why throw yourself into such a situation from the start? What benefit does that give you? Especially when you do have 6’11 player that fits better and one that everyone was already calling to start together last year!

So, until there’s any sample size of Adebayo and Ware, there’s no need to be thinking about anything further than that. But of course, the eventual goal should be to have size and make it work fit wise if there is potential. If either player can turn themselves into one of the bigs above, then that is huge for the future. Let’s just take it a step at time at first.

Bam’s Offensive Development

So, Adebayo has been working in the Olympics. He’s been one of the best players on that team so far, even though some thought he’d have to benched because of needing to switch.

And yet, after that remark, he lead the team in scoring against South Sudan. He had one of the best high volume scoring and efficient games in USAB history.

It’s also always said that players typically take a leap after their performance with USAB. You are, after all, surrounded by the best of the best for weeks. You get to play with the best of the best. You get to get first hand experience and front row seats to learn from them.

It’s then interesting to see what Adebayo will look like heading into this season because this whole Olympic appearance has given a different feel to him whether it’s him leading the team in scoring, being embraced by others, being a key player on this team, and playing with a different approach.

It makes you wonder what kind of a job can we expect from Adebayo. There’s always been this talk with him having no ceiling. To me, he already has solidified himself as top 20–25 player and there is still ways to improve his game.

Just this week, I went through some of the things he should work on improving or adding to his game here! And I want to touch on that a bit further here, looking at his development over the years and his future offensive growth.

In the last two years, we have seen him take on a much bigger role on offense. That’s exactly what he wanted. It wasn’t long ago where Adebayo has admitted he clashed with Spoelstra on wanting exactly this and in these two seasons, he had just that. He’s been given what he was calling for. He has been more aggressive. He’s had more responsibility on that end both as a facilitator early on and as a scorer more recently. There have also been many trends and signs that show there’s more potential to reach.

Now, the question is what’s next? What’s next in his role offensively? What’s next in his offensive growth? What even is reasonable to expect? Should he have the keys to the offense?

Because at this point, it’s not about having more usage. It’s not about having more responsibilities. Here are some stats to show that change of role:

I also looked at his usage compared to other non-guard players:

One thing immediately pops out and that’s the combined usage of isolation and post ups. Those are the self-created ones. That makes up a near third of his attempts. On the inverse, his assisted playtypes or typical big actions have been going down.

This is where I don’t think there’s anything wrong with his role. This is also where I don’t get the takes that the Heat need to give him the keys, particularly if you’re talking about the offensive end. He’s already working in the spaces that he wanted to. He’s already getting those touches and shots that would be a thing in the role many want him to play. In fact, I think it’s that what hurts him when it comes to the efficiency.

What matters now is what he does with those touches, responsibility, and usage, plus how exactly he’s going to be used because there are two main routes.

The route number one, that feels like many fans envision him in, is the one that gives him the ball in his hands and he’s used more in a wing role. It’s treating Adebayo as a star on offense that needs to be capable of creating for himself and for others — take that group of players above. I feel like that is what some mean or hope it can happen when talking about giving him the keys.

But as much as people like to see him in that role with those mid-ranges and have him “cook” there, he’s not going to rewrite how math works. This is where asking him for more mid-ranges doesn’t make sense no matter how much he wants to take them. It is 2024. That is inefficient basketball and fighting against analytics because you don’t “agree” with them will continue to be a reason the offense is in the mud. He’s currently not suited for that role in any way.

This is where the potential leap from the Olympics could come into play. This is where the improvements and the things that he should work on will matter more than the role.

There are many things he would need to 100% improve in drastically to make that route even viable because right now it hasn’t been.

Adebayo has 100% improved his short mid-range to the point where it’s a dangerous weapon. He shot 48.9% last year and 47.1% the year before. That is certainly a shot he’s comfortable with and something that he can easily go to. But again, “math” is important here and as good as that looks, even if it’s 50%, it’s not ideal to rely on such shots.

This also becomes a bigger issues when his long mid-range frequency has been this(starting this year)

• 14.3% → 10.4% → 14.0% → 17.1%

But his FG% on those shots are:

• 34.2% → 45.7% → 35.3% → 39.4%

MATH MATTERS.

Looking at just his shots inside the arc beyond 6ft:

• 2024: 43.6% on 543 attempts(51% freq)

• 2023: 46.8% on 594(53%)

• 2022: 40.7% on 329(45%)

This is why Adebayo has been inefficient where half of his offense is sub 1.0 points per shot. This is exactly what needs to change for the leap to happen.

I think there are multiple ways to approach this that are all connected to one another.

Firstly, I should say that the 3pt shooting matters not as much in this case. The 3pt shooting would help the overall shot diet and make him overall more efficient but those 3s would be more to do with his off-ball game. That’s not the offensive growth that’s being discussed here — this is assuming his on-ball creation role.

The easiest thing to talk about is simply not going down this route and not having as high usage. Respectfully, if a player wants to have these touches, wants to have a third of their offense be self created, cook with whatever shots they want, then they need to be at that standard. Yes, Adebayo is the team’s franchise player. Yes, he’s been anchoring the defense. Yes, he’s been at times the most important player on the team for years. But that doesn’t mean all of the efficiency, analytics and what’s important on offense doesn’t apply to him if he wants that role.

The other approach related to that is eliminating some of the inefficient shot diet for things you’re good… Or simply get better at the inefficient shots. If he wants to be a mid-range guy, that mid-range needs to be better period. It can’t be sub 40%. And the shots that have hurt him the most are ones that could also be replaced by 3s. It’s a simple shot diet change.

But the biggest difference in his offensive growth comes down to his handle, post up work, passing, and approach. These are the areas that has the highest chance of translating into efficient offense. If we want to see Bam “no ceiling” Adebayo take leaps it’s all of those areas improving.

It’s the handle that would allow him to beat guys off dribble that he should beat to the rim. It’s the handle that would make his life easier in creating those mid-range shots inside the paint better. Better handle means being able to get to your spots easier, create more space, get to the rim, get by defenders, force help, and draw fouls. This is the most important skill to make that leap.

But in terms of what can be more reasonable that’s building on his game now, it’s having better post game where it’s not something something that a typical fan can pick up his tendencies and know what he’s going to do. It’s also simply getting better at those shots that he wants to take there. He’s one of the worst post up scorers on high volume.

Then it’s becoming a better passer and having a better approach there. If the efficiency can’t be fixed to the right standard, there are ways to make up for it with better passing. I see passing and creating for others as a multiplier, so even when a player isn’t that efficient with the shot making or shot diet, the passing can boost it up.

These are all the growth in his game that should be looked at if he wants to continue to being used in the way he is. Because based on this at the moment, he doesn’t warrant higher usage or responsibility.

I’m not a skill development person, so I don’t know how likely it is that some of those areas can easily be improved. That’s where I’m not sure if he has the tools to do so but it just needs time or if it’s things that aren’t entirely in his control that already limit him. I think there are some that are definitely things he can control, and things that could be affected by this Olympic experience. That’s where we should hope the leaps will come in.

There is that other route but it’s different and it’s the role that he’s more suited in, but that depends entirely on the roster around him.

His supporting cast is always mentioned and for good reason. He has never played with a legit all-star calibre guard in his prime. All the improvements that he has made and all of the skills that are highly efficient aren’t maximised with a 50-year old Kyle Lowry or Terry Rozier.

But it’s this route that puts him in a secondary position and more of a play finisher. He’s not a player that can consistently be the one creating advantages but instead is an elite player that thrives off of someone elses. In this ideal situation, a third of his offense isn’t self-created. He’s not tasked being the one that needs to create easy, efficient shot for himself and learn to balance that with passing. Instead, that is at a much lower volume, where his shot diet doesn’t have that big of an impact. Relying on his decent mid-range wouldn’t be an issue if it wasn’t at such a high volume — volume is the biggest factor in what a players’ shot diet should be.

Assuming he doesn’t take significant leaps in the areas that would push him into a more creator role, the things he’s elite at are things that do rely on other players.

That’s not a bad thing and that’s usually how bigs are. They are dependent on their guard play. But the bigs that are capable of being creators too also have the additional creator skills and aren’t that reliant. Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid without either Tyrese Maxey or Jamal Murray are still MVP candidates player offensively.

Adebayo is in the range where he’s elite at all the other stuff. He’s elite at rolling to the rim. He can finish efficiently at the rim. He can draw fouls at a reasonable rate. He’s an elite short-roll decision-maker. He has the counters on the pull up. He can create his shot better than 99% of the bigs. He has the handle better than 99% of the bigs.

Relative to the role, he’s an elite offensive player. That’s where I think the push to have him do more comes from because he’s certainly not in the Jarrett Allen, Isaiah Hartenstein, Evan Mobley, or Myles Turner tier in terms of self-creation and being a creator. But relative to other creators, he’s not in their tier either.

That’s why now, he’s left in that space of too good to solely be the big and not good enough to warrant the higher usage role, but is because of team context.

Because in the perfect role, he has Trae Young, which makes everything in terms of big stuff — rolling, catching lobs, PNR, short roll, getting easier looks in the paint, midrange — much, much easier. AND you also have him capable of doing more with attacking mismatches, creating on his own, playmaking, etc. The only difference is the ratio of the volume for each and that’s the biggest issue.

Adebayo should continue to look to make leaps as a creator because the potential has been there. He has improved each season. He has the physical tools to be better where he either has the speed advantage or the size/strength advantage. But that’s more to do with his development in general not accounting for how impactful it is on the team’s success.

Because the best way for him to have the highest impact is for Pat Riley to do his job and not give him the keys. It’s not giving him more responsibilities. It’s giving him Young, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, or any all-star guard to make his life easier. That’s where his current skillset will be maximised the most and would have the highest impact.

It’s no surprise that his highest impact per EPM comes in the two years he got better at everything but was still in that lower role with others creating for him. The year with point Jimmy was his most impactful and most efficient season.

Now, to finish up, going to the argument in terms of giving him the keys, as they talked about it on ESPN. I’d do it, given that’s the best worst option either in the short or long term. I’d like to see Butler play better but if he’s going to save himself, I’d rather see them push Adebayo’s growth instead because unless it’s Butler with the keys, the offense will be bad because no one else is a capable creator.

The Heatle Things

To end the report, here are some random tidbits that I found interesting, concerning, encouraging, or just fun. It can be any stats, highlights, particular plays that stood out or literally anything in between!

Butler’s usage with Adebayo & Herro vs not

Butler’s stats differ a lot depending on if he’s playing with both Adebayo or Herro and when he’s not. It’s a significant difference too.

With all three on, Butler is averaging 20.9 points per 75 possessions on 60.1% eFG & 66.1% TS on 20.2% usage. Without them both, his scoring and usage goes up to 26.7 points and 28.0% usage — the efficiency does drop to 50.8% and 61.3% with that having to do a lot with his absurd 3pt shooting dropping.

This has been rehashed so many times by now, but I wanted to compare that to other top players on their team and how they look with and without their next 2 top players or just offensive options: