The Heat Report: Miami Heat Off-Season Thoughts So Far

Quick thoughts on the Miami Heat's off-season so far!

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All The Off-Season Thoughts & Questions So Far

Running it back. We have to see what they will look like healthy. We need to see Terry Rozier fully integrated with the team and give them the chance to build chemistry.

That was always just a joke throughout the year until it wasn’t.

I don’t know what I was expecting for this off-season but I was for sure hoping it wasn’t going to be like this. Now, it is only a few days into free agency, but there is a strong feeling that this will likely be the group they go into the season with. At this point, I would be quite shocked if they pivot with a significant trade that would involve any of Rozier, Tyler Herro, or Duncan Robinson.

And honestly, even if they wanted to, I don’t see many realistic moves that could make them a contender.

My view on this team has been consistent since the 2023 off-season after they struck out on Damian Lillard, and that’s that they’re not and won’t be getting over the hump without a significant trade for a star guard(or just a scoring guard that gets to the rim).

2022 was their best team and their best chance. I felt they were able to contend there with anyone and have a legitimate chance at winning a ring without needing so many things to go right. The only issue was that everything went wrong for them whether it was injuries, AWFUL shooting luck, and Payton Pritchard. But that team was right up there next to everyone else.

2023 was an odd season where they treated the regular season differently and some of the decision-making didn’t seem like they prioritized regular season success. They did get worse running it back, whilst not replacing PJ Tucker. Though I still thought they had a puncher’s chance with Jimmy Butler being a top 5 player and if they can have some shooting luck. That and getting a role-player upgrade around the margin did have me believe they had a chance. Maybe it's not the best chance where they’d be favorites at any point, but a chance.

Now, in 2024, they got worse again. And with no Butler playing at a top-15 level in the regular season, the margin of error was completely gone. Everything depended on that first to even attempt to have a chance. Without that, everything was irrelevant. Even when thinking about that team had they had a Butler playing like a top 10 player, their chances felt very slim.

Which leads us to where we are now. Before the free agency, I was more in a camp that they’re a Donovan Mitchell or Trae Young(or banking on Zach LaVine) trade from just attempting to get better that would push them further as contenders. Though it would still be tough to round out the rest of the team and weaknesses around the margin had they made that trade. But again, everything had to start with a star-level trade.

With the star trade not being unavailable, I don’t see many trades out there that will make significant impact on them as a contender. Sure, they could somehow get Colin Sexton, trade for one of the wings from Brooklyn in Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney Smith, or any other possible trade that could make sense. But I don’t see that giving them any better chance than what they had in 2023 and even that can be a stretch. If they make those marginal improvements then everything falls on Butler playing like a top-10 player and them getting so much production from their role players that’s likely above their level.

Although, just thinking out loud here, with a trade that addresses some of their weaknesses, I can see a world where they could make a push for a deep run in a 2023 fashion but more likely. Already considering Butler playing at his best, you’d still have Rozier(who even though I’m not a fan of, provides a much better on-ball creation than both Gabe Vincent or Kyle Lowry), an improved Duncan Robinson, both Jaime Jaquez Jr & Nikola Jovic growth, adding some fresh blood with Pelle Larsson, Alec Burks, and Kel’el Ware. That world becomes a bit more likely.

But in that case, my next issue has to do with this:

It’s the Heat’s stubbornness to take a risk in doing something different and committing to it.

I don’t know how confident I’ll be in this exact core going into the season even with all the potential internal growth and additions. The core of Herro, Butler, and Bam Adebayo has completely run its course and I just don’t see how they can come back together. The most obvious trade is obviously moving Herro, but now it’s just a matter of what makes realistic sense.

And I’ve seen two options.

• Make moves not thinking about this year because you’re not really contending, so prioritise getting flexibility and potential assets.

• Make moves that fit the team better and use whatever assets you do have to make the team better regardless of future flexibility.

I have no issues with either option but just commit to it. But — and there’s a big but here — deciding on either option is to accept uncomfortable truths that they probably don’t want to explore because of their stubbornness.

If the goal this season is to worry about flexibility whilst being content with whatever this group will accomplish even if it’s a first-round exit or the finals. And then not worry about Butler leaving(and even if he doesn’t, the choice to extend him will feel pointless), then this route is also pointless.

This is where wanting to remain competitive(whatever the ceiling is) at all times will hurt them going forward. This would be the perfect time to rip off the band-aid and trade Butler because the option to let him walk or even extend him will hurt them in the long run. They can get some assets back for him to retool and get a step on whatever you’ll need to make Adebayo’s timeline easier. It will help bridge that timeline. Otherwise, they’ll be starting from zero or even from behind.

But if the goal is to have one last dance with a motivated Butler(even if he’s guaranteed to leave), then you go in on the 3% chance that you may have of making the finals again. Remembering how fun that 2023 run was, I would honestly love to have that chance again. So, if that’s the goal then they need to make whatever moves necessary to make them better.

And to do so, it’s facing up with the horror and really facing it because I still don’t think they’re even entertaining that thought. It’s realising that their assessment of Herro was beyond what it realistically was. It’s realising that they missed badly on his potential and that all of this was a mistake with him. Trading him away for whatever when his value is this low will be them having to admit to themselves we F’ed up and it’s a mistake that very likely closed this window.

At this point, I don’t care which route they go to, as long as they pick a damn line. Take that risk either way and commit to one goal.

Because I don’t see how it will be any different if this core remains the same. I’ve seen people suggest having Herro go back to the bench but I don’t see that changing anything. Because if the core stays the same, I don’t think their view on Herro will change. If that doesn’t change, they will see no reason why this won’t fit, why he should not only go to the bench but also cut his shots in half.

If they do want to remain competitive for better or worse, then the only thing standing in their way is this.

And that kind of stops everything with what they could do in the off-season. Playing the two timelines, whilst still also being either high on Herro or not wanting to sell low, will just end up being the thing that ends this build.

Now, it’s still early July. A lot of things can still happen. I do hope that their view at least when it comes to Herro, Adebayo, Butler together has run its course. I’ve seen that they’re high on Rozier. Fine. I’ve seen that they like Ware and maybe playing with Adebayo. Fine. They feel like they will get a motivated Butler and that will change things. Fine.

What’s not fine is pretending that a 5 year sample of something not working will suddenly work because reasons. That’s just insanity at that point where eye test, record, results, and advanced stats continue to prove otherwise.

That will decide the off-season going forward. Because right now, I have zero clue on what they could possibly do or even entertain. It’s tough to even come up with fake hypotheticals because not much is known.

Those are the off-season thoughts as of today. This can all change(and hopefully it does). But right now, I’m just in a camp to do something significant. Whatever it is. Remain competitive, take a one-a-last swing at a potential deep run, or embrace the unknown for once and have a soft rebuild.

What’s Been Heating Up?

Summer League

We do have the summer league happening tonight. That is going to be exciting to watch. There are three players that I am looking forward to seeing — Ware, Larsson, and Zyon Pullin.

I want to see what Ware looks like defensively. That’s going to be a big factor going into the season with how many minutes he will get. I want to see if there will be some 3-point shooting. How is he mostly going to be used on offense?

With Larsson, I want to see his passing. He averaged almost seven assists per 100 possessions in his senior year at college. There were many lobs I’ve seen in his highlights out of a pick and roll that it all looked intriguing. Then there’s obviously the shooting — 40% 3pt for his college career but only on 5 3s, which is kind of low. He’s mostly been taking shots inside the arc(has a career 40% 3pt rate), but has been cooking there, where he shot 57% his senior year and 55% for his career. Another stat that stood out is 71% of his 2s being near the rim and shooting 64% whilst also having a .459 free throw rate. This isn’t just a shooter.

Then, Pullin, I want to see if that 3pt is legit. He shot 45% but only on 2 attempts. Similar to Larsson, he also gets to the line a lot. He had a .534 FTr in his last year(borderline Butler level)

Signing Alec Burks

The Heat signed Burks. That was unexpected but I can see why.

He’s a career 38% 3-point shooter on 7 3s per 100 possessions. He has four seasons shooting 40% or higher. He also has 3 seasons shooting 10 or more 3s per 100. The volume and efficiency is there. He shoots 42% from the corner with 24% of his shots being there — 6 seasons shooting 42% or higher.

He was in the 77th percentile with the Pistons on spot-ups and 58% with the Knicks. Then in previous years(in brackets is if he was on 2 teams):

• 92nd → 74th → 68th → 60th(76th) → 94th(62nd)

This year, he also ranked in the 83rd percentile on off-screens, shooting 1.20 points per possession with 10% of his possessions. Though be cautious of that because he doesn’t have a track record of being good on that playtype or used there much. In 2023, it was 0.71 with only 4% and in 2021, 0.58 with 3%.

Surprisingly, shooting isn’t just his thing either. He has a .355 career free throw rate. He attempts almost 7 FTA per 100 for his career. With the Pistons in 43 games, he shot 90% on 7!

High-volume 3s and being able to grift fouls is a good skill to have.

He also has a track record of making tough shots in isolation on limited volume. Over his last five seasons, he scored 246 points on 223 isolation possessions. That’s 1.10 PPP. That does only makeup around 5% of his total possessions.

A couple of things you shouldn’t expect him to do is hit mid-range shots consistently or finish at the rim period. When it comes to his rim shot making, in the last 5 years, out of 337 players to take 300 shots at the rim, he’s 337th with 49%.

And with his mid-range:

• Career 34% from 3–10ft

• Career 38% from 10–16ft

• Career 36% from 16–3pt

• 2 seasons shooting above 40% from 3–10ft

• 9 seasons shooting below 35% from 3–10ft

• 5 seasons shooting above 40% from 10–16ft

• 5 seasons shooting below 35% from 10–16ft(4 below 30%)

• 2 seasons shooting above 40% from 16–3pt

• 5 seasons shooting below 35% from 16–3pt

It’s literally 3pt, free throws, or essentially a turnover.

And that is all for The Heat Report. We’ll be back soon with some thoughts and takeaways from the first summer league game