The Heat Report: Summer League, Terry, Haywood

Heat's summer league thoughts so far! How good is Terry Rozier? Should we feel high on this team?

Welcome to The Heat Report(name maybe still in progress)! A weekly, semi-regular thoughts, discussion & analysis of the Miami Heat. This is the place for you to get up to speed with everything that’s important, interesting, or simply fun — whether that’s news, specific games, box-scores, actions, plays, signings, trades, trends, financials, schemes — and digging deeper into the how’s and why’s through film breakdowns, stats, and analysis.

Summer League So Far

So, we’ve had our first few games of the California Summer League and with that we had our first experience of watching Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson and other potential prospects for the Heat. We’ll have more of a sample in the games in Las Vegas, but for now, let’s see what stood out in these few games!

Here are the quick stats for some of the players:

• Kel’el Ware: 2 games, 19.0pts, 8.5rebs, 1.5asts, 3.0blks on 51% FG & 57% FT

• Pelle Larsson: 3 games, 5.7pts, 2.7rebs, 2.0asts, 1.7stls on 35% & 43%

• Keshad Johnson: 3 games, 13.3pts, 5.7rebs, 1.7asts, 3.3 stocks on 50% & 60%

If you want to see more in-depth breakdowns for each game and looking specifically at each player, here’s game one, where I went through Ware in drop and as a help defender, Larsson on offense, Zyon Pullin’s off dribble attacks and Isaiah Steven’s defense. Then in game two, I looked more into how Ware was more comfortable offensively and Larsson’s play on both ends.

Let’s start with Ware. It’s only been two games but he has shown the flashes and the potential of what it could be with him as the back-up five.

The first thing that stood out with him is the most obvious things about him. He’s tall, he can jump high, he has long arms and looks good moving. That was shown with the lobs he got, some of the finishes he was making, the blocks, recoveries and some fun highlights.

He did a lot of his work around the paint and in the mid-range in the first game but it’s good to see that he has that touch that’s quite effective. I also like the confidence in those shots and looking to score. There are many bigs in the league that aren’t even looking at the rim when given that space. That’s not an issue with Ware at all.

In game two, he looked even better. He looked more comfortable on that end. His rolls were more decisive, he was getting shots more a the rim, and sprinkled in some attacks vs a mismatch. He looked like the clear best big man.

He did also attempt a few 3s. Most were off-pick and pops, and though they didn’t go in, he still looked pretty confident in taking those without any hesitation.

Something that also stands out is some of those screens being set. Many times, there wasn’t any kind of contact being made, and at times just looking to roll into a post-up. That was better in game two, though.

Defensively, that’s where I liked more of the potential. Because offensively, I don’t think there is anything special that a typical big in the NBA can’t do or would be significant enough to be more impactful on that end. I feel like he showed more flashes on defense. That’s where he showcased his length.

He was primarily used in drop and there were both good and bad. I liked the activity from him. He was able to get up on the ball handler, and have his arms up and active to deter any passes or shots. He wasn’t being kept in a deep drop. But the negative was that he did allow the roller to get wide open and had some late recoveries there.

The most impressive on defense was just his athletic ability. There were times he got beat but was able to use his length to still deter or block shots. There were times he did completely deter a guy from driving further because he was there with those long arms.

It’s only been two games, but the positive signs are there.

Moving to Larsson. Stats-wise, he didn’t have a great showing. Struggled to score, shoot, or even make his free throws. But I still liked what I saw from him, particularly on both ends of the floor.

Offensively, despite not scoring he had many good possessions of doing something good and it was all of the little things that would be needed for him on a team with better players. He moved the ball quickly, made the extra pass instantly, he attacked closeouts decisively, had strong drives, and moved well without the ball. And whenever he did have the ball in his hands to create, he made a good read on those lob passes that he enjoys making.

And there were these defensive highlights. He looked to go to work defensively. He did a good job chasing guys around, going over screens, and hustling to recover. He was used in some full court press. He showed good closeouts and aggressive defense.

We also had guys like Isaiah Stevens show out with his passing:

He impressed me with the kind of reads he was making regularly and the tight window passes that he was able to make.

Finally, there’s Johnson. I do like his energy on both ends. He looks to be very active. Defensively, he was always looking to closeout well, being early in help, rotating well, and simply being “loud” on defense. Offensively, unless that shot is there, I don’t know what he’s going to do. There were times he started in the corner but was looking to cut early and simply got in the way or brought the defender inside. Without that spacing ability or be willing to shoot, it’s going to be hard to get consistent minutes.

Overall, this was just three games, but it was looking good and it should be more exciting to watch the Las Vegas games.

Caleb Out, Haywood In

So, the Heat ended up losing Caleb Martin as he went to the Philadelphia 76ers, though it was too close that the Heat almost had him back on a long deal.

It’s been a good three years with Martin. From a two-way player to being a crucial key in their run to the finals. That Eastern Conference performance from him will be remembered when it comes to this build. A reminder that in that series he averaged 19 points per game and shot 60% from the field. He went 22/45 from 3pt. This was quite a journey, especially with how he started and what even the 2022 playoffs were looking like for him.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the Martin that the Heat have been seeing in the regular season.

Here are his 3pt%(attempts per 100) since joining the Heat:

• 41.3%(5.7) → 35.6%(5.7) → 34.9%(6.6)

His 2pt%:

• 56.5%(9.3) → 54.5%(7.5) → 48.9%(9.3)

His true shooting:

• 61.1% → 57.1% → 53.1%

His rim FG%(rim freq):

• 73.9%(37.3%) → 67.4%(23.5%) → 59.8%(21.8%)

And finally, here are his impact metrics:

He’s not the same Martin and the decline has been significant across the board whether it’s his ability to pressure the rim, finish when he’s there, get by defenders, attack closeouts, make 3s or his defense.

This probably is a lot to do with the injuries he’s been dealing with, so it’s tough predict how he’s going to look from now on. Whether this was just a bad year or a trend that his body may not be where it was anymore. That’s why him and his agent did save the Heat from making that potential mistake by not accepting that initial offer.

When it comes to his potential replacement because what he has given them was useful and needed at times. They needed him a lot in that 2023 run. It may feel like a stretch, but I do wonder if Larsson will slowly be pushed into a similar role.

Now, moving to Haywood Highsmith. They brought him back and they needed to. They needed a defender because I had no idea who was going to actually defend guards and wings and be good. Luckily, the locksmith isn’t going anywhere.

When I also say they needed him:

In contrast to what has been happening with Martin over the years, Highsmith was the opposite. He’s been getting more playing time, more responsibilities, showing more confidence, and being relied on more. His defense has been that good and it’s even more important when he’s the only one that can do this consistently.

Things like:

Or having games like this:

He’s honestly one of the best defenders and the Heat managed to bring him back—2 minutes of defensive highlights and another clip of him defending Shai Gilgeous Alexander. But it’s not just the defense that stands out from him. It’s the improvement on offense.

He’s looked more comfortable doing something with the ball. He’s improved as a shooter. Shot 33.6% in the first two years, but that jumped to 39.6% this year. The volume is still not there, though.

His efficiency is rising each year: 44.6% → 51.7% → 58.7%

Even his impact metrics are almost neutral!

According to EPM, he’s still not there yet, but considering he was genuinely one of the worst just a couple of years ago, going from liability zone to average is a huge difference.

If he can continue to shoot the way he has, improve some of his ball handling, confidence, get that 3pt volume up, and continue with the elite defense, then he’s one of the better utility guys in the league.

How Good is Terry Rozier?

So, I want to quickly talk about Rozier because I see some takes and a tweet got me thinking. Maybe it’s because we had Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, or even old, injured Goran Dragic in his last season as our guards. Rozier is an upgrade over those players in terms of scoring ability, beating guys off the dribble, and being a tough shot maker. I don’t think there’s much of an argument there.

But I still don’t see Rozier anywhere close of a player that can make significant changes to a team that wants to win championships. In my mind, great teams don’t have a Rozier on a team. They don’t have a small guard that has an inefficient shot diet, gets to the rim in limited frequency, or isn’t a great passer.

I think having Rozier is objectively a good thing instead of not having him, having Lowry instead or have an extra wing with Herro running point.

Does he make this team better as to what it was at the beginning of last year? Yes. Will he(and the team) look better with him fully integrated on the team and decided how he should be used? Also, yes.

But that’s not a needle mover for this team. That’s not replacing the 3-level scorer that this desperately needs. He’s not providing what Dragic did. He’s not the kind of creator that you’d want alongside Butler. If the Heat were to have him throughout these seasons, he would’ve been the player that you need to upgrade from to get over the hump.

Rozier is just another small shooting guard that his role is more suited for a scoring plug off the bench as opposed to a starting level guard that would be asked to create for himself and others efficiently.

He has never been above average when it comes to his scoring from inside the arc. He’s been a horrible finisher at the rim for his career. His rim frequency is low to what you’d want and the in-between game is average too where it can’t off-set that.

That’s also not helped with his career .176 free throw rate or his highest being .202. For comparison, that career high is lower than Coby White, Caris LeVert, Mikal Bridges, Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Williams, Jaden Ivey, Darius Garland, Tyrese Haliburton, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Monk this year.

This plays a part why in the last five years, his true shooting is 55.3%. It’s impossible to be efficient off a tough shot making shot diet that leans to the mid-range(shooting 41% from 3–10ft, 46% 10–16ft, 41% 16ft+), without the rim pressure or foul drawing. Maybe this would’ve been better if he was a better shooter.

He’s a good shooter… but only off the catch. He’s one of those players that would benefit more from being off-ball and attacking off someone else’s advantages than creating one himself. When it comes to off-dribble 3pt shooting, he’s been a poor, streaky one.

I also saw this tweet:

And the reaction to it, got me looking at his playtypes:

The 30 game sample size with the Hornets this year is likely fooling a lot of people considering how he has been so far in his career.

Looking at his on-ball with the isolation and pick and roll, he’s been an average to above average efficiency wise ranging from 50 to 70s percentile.

I was also curious about his FG%(I know that’s not efficiency, but the accuracy can provide some additional context). And outside of this year, he’s been a low 40s or high 30s kind of guy. That does tell me he’s a shooter and mainly from 3pt(or also settling for those tough jumpers. But even then he still ranks low in eFG%.

This year, out of 47 players that attempted at least 4 shots, he’s 35th in eFG in his time with the Heat(which would’ve been his best in the last five years). Going back the last 2 seasons:

• 2023: 45th out of 50 in eFG%

• 2022: Would rank 52nd out of 55 had he attempted 4 shots(took 2.7)

It all very depends if he has his 3pt shot going.

But this is just his scoring, his passing doesn’t make up the difference either. Here are his passing stats grades in each season per BBall-Index:

But look at the difference when being compared to other on-ball players:

And diving more into the passing, here are his last two seasons passes to specific players with 4 or more passes. Focusing on the 2pt shots and FG%:

That also doesn’t look elite when it comes to setting guys up.

This is where I don’t get this whole thing with Rozier and how this changes much for the Heat. Having Rozier will help but it’s not anything close to attempt to fix an offense or be a needle mover either.

Should we feel high on this team

Having said that, I still tweeted this out:

I’m still feeling like it makes sense to be higher on the team. I can see my self buying into this a bit more than what they had the last two years.

Despite Rozier’s limitations, that is an upgrade over what they had as a scorer — it just depends how he’s being used that will matter a lot more. Then there’s the internal growth from Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr. With another year in the books, they could fill some needed roles. The young blood in Ware and Larsson could provide something off the bench.

Then you still have Adebayo and Herro as the other “young” players that can still look to get better. But again, the most important thing that will matter there is how they’re being used. It will mean going away from all of the post ups, self-creation, and being on-ball. There shouldn’t be a need for that.

The pieces from 2–13 can fit better and be better.

But the biggest reason that I could see a vision is only if Butler plays like the best player.

These are Butler’s tracking stats. You can see in each year, they’ve dropped and dropped. You’re not going to win many games if your best player is playing like the second, third, or fourth. But being this be his contract year, a motivated Butler could make a difference.

The only thing now to monitor is how good will a motivated Butler be considering the decline he already shown last year. If that continues or even remains around the same, it’s going to be tough.

But even this year, with Butler on they were +5.1 and that dropped to -1.8 without him(though that can be a bit skewed with how dominant the numbers were when it was just Butler on without Adebayo or Herro being +9.7).

Now, when I also say “high” on this team, I mean I can see them easily be a top 5 seed because for the most part, that would be separated by a couple of games. My feelings about the team and its ceiling doesn’t care much about regular season.

When it comes to the playoffs, I think with this current group, I can talk myself into them having a competitive series that has a likely chance to win against anyone outside of the Boston Celtics. I think they can have a 2020 kind of run.