Toronto Raptors 2024-25 Season Preview

Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!

Season & Off-Season Recap

The Toronto Raptors finally did it. They moved on from everyone that was part of the 2019 championship season when they traded both OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam — well, almost everybody. There’s still Chris Boucher, but the point still stands.

Last off-season, I was wondering what their plan or goals were. They struggled to make the playoffs out of the play-in. They made some moves that looked like a win now, They got a new coach. But they were still in a bit of limbo. They lost Fred VanVleet for nothing. And there were a bunch of questions revolving around extending both Anunoby and Siakam.

This year, they decided what they wanted to do. They made up their mind on what the direction of the team right now should be and it’s get younger, focus on development, embrace the rebuild, and most likely lose to get a high draft pick.

That’s why they got RJ Barrett, who’s only 24 years old and has already shown much improvement early on with the Raptors. It’s also why they got Immanuel Quickley, who’s only 25 years old.

Unfortunately, they couldn’t see much of Scottie Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett because of Barnes’ injury. That was a shame because, in 439 minutes, that trio was +3.3 with a 117.3 offensive rating. Whereas, take Barnes off, and that duo was -11.8 with a 110.2 ORTG — Barrett was still balling, though.

Their off-season was more about doubling down on this core and looking to add younger players to it. The main part was giving out a max extension to Barnes and a 162m over 5 years for Quickley. They added a handful of rookies in Jamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo, and Ja’Kobe Walter.

All of this was a necessary step in the direction of a rebuild. And fortunately for them, they look to be in a decent enough position to jump-start it as best as they can.

Key Questions & Storylines!

• Barnes being healthy and continuing to take the leap

• How much of what we saw from Barrett was real?

• Can Quickley handle the responsibility of a lead ball handler?

• How good can their four young players be together?

• Will Jakob Poeltl survive the season?

• Who’s their starting two guard?

• Their three rookies

• Can Bruce Brown have a bounce-back year and help them?

• What is Ochai Agbaji?

There’s a lot to still watch from the Raptors, even if you’re not a Raptors fan!

The first one is obviously Barnes. That’s the thing alone about the Raptors that should have you follow their season. His season was cut 22 games short because of an injury. That was a shame considering in his last 20 games games, he averaged 19/8/7 with 2 stocks.

He had improvements across the board and hitting career highs in so many areas. Here are some stats over the last 3 seasons:

• Points per 75: 16.2 → 16.3 → 20.6

• Assists per 75: 3.6 → 5.1 → 6.3

• 2pt %: 54.3% → 50.5% → 53.6%

• 3pt %: 30.1% → 28.1% → 34.1%

• AST%: 14.7% → 20.0% → 26.2%

• TS%: 55.2% → 52.4% → 56.6%

• FTr: .231 → .242 → .266

• PNR points per poss: 1.12 on 0.9 → 0.69 on 1.6 → 0.84 on 3.3

And here are some stats, per BBall-Index

There are a lot of improvements. His offensive impact stands out pretty significantly. This is what is going to be the most important thing for the Raptors.

Can Barnes continue to develop the way he has already?

Can he become a better shooter because that has been very up and down and has cooled off compared to his hot start — shot 39% on 5.4 3s in his first 30 games, then shot 28% on 4.5. That needs to be a lot better.

Can he develop a better in-between game? He did shoot 54% from 2pt, but a lot of that is because of his elite rim finishing, where he shot 70% with nearly a third of his shots there. But outside of the shot is around average. He shot 38% beyond 5ft, 36% between 6-10ft, and 40% beyond 10ft inside the arc. Out of 55 players with at least 6 attempts per 100 from 4-14ft, he’s 51st in %.

Will he grow into the type of player that has a high ceiling? Is he going to be another time All-Star(he was just a replacement this year).

The signs and flashes are there. Now, he’s also been given the maximum extension, so those flashes need to start becoming a thing.

An encouraging point is his metrics. There is steady growth each year getting bigger and bigger:

Related to Barnes, can the team survive without him? They had a 115.4 ORTG with him and a 110.2 ORTG without him. That was a similar trend last year too. Though one may argue should they even look to survive without him, they still would want to be bad in the grand scheme of things.

That will mostly fall down on Barrett and Quickley. Two other young players that this season will be about. These are the players that they got for Anunoby, it would be nice for them to continue to grow into better players.

It was night and day for Barrett when he got to Canada. Here are some stats in New York vs Toronto:

• Points per 75: 23.2 → 23.2

• Assists per 75: 3.1 → 4.4

• AST%: 12.8% → 19.5%

• 2pt%: 46.9% → 60.5%

• 3pt%: 33.1% → 39.2%

• TS%: 53.1% → 61.6%

• Drives per 36: 12.4 → 13.3

• Drive PTS%: 60.9% → 61.8

• Drive Pass%: 26.7% → 36.7

• Drive FG%: 38.6% → 55.4

• Passes made per 36: 29.8 → 40.8

• Potential assists per 36: 4.7 → 7.7

One thing we can already be cautious about is the shooting. That is most likely a lot of noise and a small sample, but it’s still very encouraging that it may trend upwards.

Everything else is a bigger sign of encouragement! That 2pt%, the efficiency, finishing at the rim, finishing on drives, and most importantly, being a better, higher volume passer.

That has been one of his biggest weaknesses, so if that is there to stay, then that can raise a lot for him. I don’t even know how much of that could be noise or a small sample. It obviously can’t be a better environment — the Knicks are a better team with better spacing.

These improvements can make him a much more impactful player for them. Seeing how he continues to look and if there are any other improvements is going to be a question for him.

And there’s Quickley. A former, sixth man of the year candidate. The question for him is how much responsibility can he handle as the primary guard. It looked decent enough so far with the Raptors being the full starter. His shooting was there with 39% on over 10 3s. He upped his AST% from 15.9% with the Knicks to 29.5% — a career high.

Similar to Barrett, he also had a career-high at the rim. What do the Raptors have that makes players be so efficient at the rim?

If we could pencil in some improvements from each player, I wonder how that is going to look. They were already winning the minutes with all three on and there’s now going to be more continuity. It could be even better.

The rest of the questions were around everyone else.

Who’s even going to start for them? They lost Gary Trent Jr. So, is that Gradey Dick?

On that note, it’s going to be his second season. He shot 36% on over 9 3s. He had an even better finish to the year, where in the last 39 games, he averaged 11.2 points, shooting 39% from 3pt! How much of that shooting is going to continue to be there? What else will he add to his game?

Another young player with Agbaji. Who even is he? I obviously know who the player is, but it’s more what are his “things” going to be. He’s been a poor shooter so far in his career. Doesn’t get to the line. Doesn’t get assists. Isn’t efficient. He’s also on the older range — he came in as a 22-year-old rookie.

Does Poeltl also survive the season? He’s definitely been a key player in their rotation that is highly needed and impactful. In both seasons with the Raptors, they were 8pts better with him than without! They got worse on both ends of the floor without him. They were -0.6 this year with him(not great) but they were -9.2 without him(even less great).

Although a player like him is certainly needed even for development, there is a possibility that they may move on from him for the right price. He certainly makes life so much easier for all of the guards with all of the dirty work that he’s doing. That same applies on the defensive end. There is real value in having him on the team even if they’re looking to lose and prioritise young players. Having a solid vet is one way to optimise that environment for them.

Will Brown have a better season? He was already having a down year, especially shooting-wise with the Pacers. This is also not looking good either:

Finally, there are there three rookies where there may or may not something there. Each one brings something different. There’s some shooting, some size and athleticism, and some defense. It does address what they’d need to round out the core, but it’s all about developing that.

Prediction

• 30-35 wins

• Floor(worst case scenario): Just outside the play-in

• Ceiling(best case scenario): Lock for a play-in in the 7th-8th seed, but they shouldn’t look to win!

• They will prioritise the pick and won’t be near the play-in

• What we saw from Barrett was real and he’s going to be close to All-Star calibre

• They will trade Poeltl!

As I was writing all of this up, I didn’t realise that there was still so much to look forward to with the Raptors.

I may have talked myself into watching more of them just for Barrett and Barnes. I’m quite curious to see how their growth continues to look, especially with Barrett because that was completely new.

There are a lot of potential pieces there too with Quickley, Agbaji, Dick, and all of the rookies.

I don’t know if I’d be surprised if they continued to be around good but not great level where they can look to sneak in as a play-in team. Not sure if that would eventually be the plan, but I could see it if they tried.

Overall, I see them around mid to high 30s team, especially if they end up keeping Poeltl.