What will Davion Mitchell & Kyle Anderson bring to the Heat

A deep dive on what both Mitchell & Anderson will bring to the Heat

It’s now official. After many details were worked out and the deal expanded to more teams, the Miami Heat ended up sending out Jimmy Butler and received Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Kyle Anderson, and a top-10 protected 2025 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors.

I went over what Wiggins will bring to the team in a big deep dive that you can find here:

But we still have two players who should have a solid role on this team, too. Both Mitchell and Anderson should be getting minutes. So, let’s see how they will help the team.

Davion Mitchell

Before the trade was announced or rumoured. Once it was obvious that the Heat weren’t done making moves and had the whole thing with PJ Tucker going on, in a chat, the first player that came to mind was Mitchell.

A lot of it simply comes from he can defend at the point of attack. He can go over screens. He can apply pressure to the ball handler. HE CAN GET OVER SCREENS. He can be that annoying pest that no other ball handlers will have joy on the court. HE WON’T DIE ON SCREENS.

I can’t the last time the Heat had such a player. All of that is also enough to outweigh a lot of the offensive question marks he brings. There’s a reason why he was losing his minutes in Sacramento and those concerns will likely still be there.

Quickly staying on that note, in 2022, the Sacramento Kings with both Mitchell and De’Aaron Fox were -9.6 with a 107.7 ORTG. That jumped to -2.7 with 116.6 without him. That was a similar trend in 2023 when the team broke out. They were -4.5 with a 114.7 ORTG with both but +2.9 with 123.1 ORTG without him.

The Kings offense was consistently better without him. On the other hand, theirs and the Raptors defense was also consistently better with him.

I have a feeling that is what’s going to matter more to Spoelstra. The offense already is in the mud as it is with better shooters. What they rarely had is a guard that can defend as good as Mitchell. That’s all that matters for this season. Though, there are still positives and potential upsides with Mitchell this year offensively, which has been a big reason why he’s been playing well for the Raptors.

Before we start, I do want to highlight two pieces from Samson Folk, who covers the Toronto Raptors for the Raptors Republic. There’s the most recent “Davion Mitchell has found his footing with the Raptors” and “The Raptors backup guard battle: Davion Mitchell”. If there’s anyone that knows more than everything you’d need to know about Mitchell this season, it’s probably Samson.

Here’’s also a good video alongside those articles that go through the impact:

So, let’s start on the defensive end. This year he ranks in the 91st percentile in D-EPM with +1.4. Amongst guards, he’s 12th. This is also how it’s trending:

His job is going to be guard guards. Amongst 105 point-of-attack defenders classed per BBall-Index, he ranks fourth overall in perimeter isolation defense, 21st in ball screen navigation, and fourth in matchup difficulty.

That ability will make life so much easier for Adebayo and Ware. Just as a comparison, in 2023, when Adebayo had Gabe Vincent, the defense was 111.6 with both on. In 2022, it was 109.0. That presence as a guard should make the defensive big better.

And I think that’s exactly what I’m envisioning. He’s going to play the Gabe Vincent role — probably that exact role off the bench in ~20 minutes per game.

One interesting point brought up by Samson was that the Raptors were a top-5 team when it came to pressing. The Heat need that kind of guard. They do press quite often. We also just saw them do this with Pelle Larsson picking up Tyrese Maxey full-court. Now, they’ll have a better option.

Having that option to press hard without giving up much should do wonders for the team’s defense. It will make life harder and push teams later into the clock or away from what they want to do.

That’s what I hope Mitchell will do.

The bonus of also having players who can do their job defensively in a role that’s similar to the offense can make matchups easier. You won’t need to play smaller elsewhere to insert someone like Highsmith to guard the POA because a typical guard will do that job. You will also be able to hide some of the guards because of him, too.

There’s just more possibility and versatility with having an elite defender in that role. Essentially all contenders need to have such a player.

Let’s now just go through a handful of different clips showcasing his defensive ability in various ways that stood out to me while watching him.

The first thing is the isolation defense, particularly in defending drives. He is physical there(we’ll get to that, too). He absorbs the contact well. He may be small but didn’t look like someone who would just get pushed off his spot easily. He also hasn’t looked jumpy, one that would react to every movement:

Take this defense against Brown, too:

It starts off with a good closeout(that’s one thing that also stood out, he looks like he can close out well and recover, even if he looks to be aggressive). He then turns his hip well, stays on the drive, doesn’t foul either, and forces a miss.

Speaking of closeouts, he hustles:

Even if he’s in the paint, he’s looked to sprint and get a hand up.

Similarly here:

It’s chasing around off-ball, but he still looked to get back. The energy, hustle, and effort didn’t look like it was not a 100% thing at all times with him.

These handful of plays against Curry stood out and it’s all about the physicality. That’s the kind of guard defense that the Heat need:

He’s all up in his body. He’s not letting him go off-ball without a fight. Same thing here:

This is the annoying pest defense that I love. He’s all up in your face.

Even if he does get beat on similar plays, he can look to recover like this:

I’ve watched a handful of Raptors games and his defense is loud. I can’t wait to watch this level of defense.

So, that’s defense. That’s his calling and that’s what he’s going to give. But his offense also needs to be addressed because that was what held him back in Sacramento and what led him to be salary dumped.

If you do look at his impact on offense, you see the issue:

One of the reasons for that has been that lack of 3pt shot. He has shown 31.5% and 31.9% in his first two seasons in Sacramento. But that has also improved to 36.1% and 35.9%. Not great but improvement.

Looking further at his 3pt shooting splits on C&S 3pt vs PU 3pt:

• 2025: 35.4% on 1.8(32.4% of FGA) / 36.8% on 0.9(15.6%)

• 2024: 37.1% on 1.7(38.6%) / 32.4% on 0.5(10.6%)

• 2023: 34.6% on 1.7(34.1%) / 26.2% on 0.8(15.3%)

• 2022: 32.8% on 2.4(20.9%) / 28.4% on 1.9(16.9%)

That’s less great than the initial percentages indicate. There’s also this, per BBall-Index, amongst on-ball guards:

You’re going to have a hard time scoring and being a scoring threat if you can’t make any 3s.

It’s also not just his 3s, either. Here’s his pull-up 2pt over the years:

• 2025: 30.0% on 0.5(8.2% of FGA)

• 2024: 39.2% on 0.7(15.9%)

• 2023: 43.1% on 0.9(18.0%)

• 2022: 39.9% on 3.3(29.2%)

That’s why his shooting talents look something like this:

I wasn’t expecting this to be that bad.

He’s not a scorer. Period. Most of his points do come within 10ft. That’s where he does score when he does:

• 2025: 54.7% on 2.4(43.4% of FGA)

• 2024: 59.8% on 1.6(34.9%)

• 2023: 66.9% on 1.6(32.6%)

• 2022: 55.3% on 3.7(32.8%)

Not the best here either but for a backup guard where it could bounce back slightly should be good enough. One encouraging point is he has been okay at finishing on layups — 57.3%, 66.9%, 64.2%, and 56.8%. That’s where he’s likely going to get his points and if that can bounce back to those 60s, I will take that.

There is a bright side, though! His work in the PNR has been quite good throughout his career, particularly in these last two seasons… except for one part that’s a red flag this year.

• 2025: 2.3 poss / 30.1% freq / 0.74 PPP / 58.2% eFG

• 2024: 2.2 / 21.4% / 0.96 / 56.2%

• 2023: 1.3 / 22.4% / 0.72 / 45.1%

• 2022: 5.2 / 39.2% / 0.91 / 50.6%

If you’re wondering why his overall efficiency is so bad but great eFG, he has a, erm, 38.6% TOV freq. Now, that has never been that bad but even in previous seasons at 15.9%, 21.7%, and 12.1% was high too. There does seem to be a turnover issue.

His work off handoffs in very limited volume also isn’t a disaster either:

• 2025: 0.94 PPP / 57.1% eFG

• 2024: 0.95 / 50.0%

• 2023: 1.18/ 61.8%

• 2022: 0.84 / 45.9%

Overall, though, he is not a scorer and that is going to limit, not only his impact but also his playing time and if he could close. There’s not a lot you can do with a guard like that. He wouldn’t be off-ball, but then you’re also hurting your offense if he’s your primary ball handler for long stretches.

Now, his passing, on the other hand, has shown more promise. That’s also an area that Samson had mentioned got him more playing time. He’s been more of a table setter. That’s something that the Heat do need.

Here are some stats per BBall-Index amongst on-ball guards:

He’s not an elite playmaker, but it looks like he can the job done at least, particularly off drives. His assist on drives is so impressive:

Amongst 90 players with at least 9 drives per 75 poss, he’s fifth in drive assist rate and second in drive pass-out rate. He’s going to pass the ball and find a good shot.

These are the kicks:

This is one area that I think will benefit the Heat the most. It’s those drives and kicks. They need another reliable threat that can do this. And a lot of those passes are instant and well-placed. They are accurate, fast, and sometimes quite early before the defense can even look to recover. He looked to get those passes either fully penetrating the defense or if he saw them lurking one pass away. If he does get a step and forces that initial line of the defense to rotate, it’s an easy one-handed throw.

He averages 3.6 passes on drives and 0.9 assists in 24 minutes. That would’ve been third on the Heat behind Butler and Herro.

Also, amongst 300 players with at least 500 minutes, he’s 43rd in rim assists per 100 with 3.1. That would rank first on the Heat, ahead of Herro at 2.6.

There’s also another fun passing stat! Jakob Poeltl is shooting 60.0% on 2s of his passes. Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick at ~50%. This is where these passes come in:

Watching over his assists, he looks to make them at a high clip to rollers. Combined with his drives and dribble penetrations, he looks to find his big often. That is going to be fun with Adebayo.

That’s the whole thing with Mitchell. He looks to pass. He averages over 61 passes 36 minutes and 13 potential assists. For comparison, Herro led the Heat with 49 passes and 10 potential assists. Mitchell almost would’ve led the team in passes despite playing ~12 minutes fewer than most of the top players.

This is what I’m most excited to see and that is what the Heat will need the most. Someone who can accelerate and beat the initial defense to get a full drive in. That will for sure be there to ease Herro’s loads and also maximize him. He hasn’t played with another guard who can drive at that level.

Some other fun stats I came across. The Raptors averaged 18.7 fast break points per 100 with Mitchell on and that drops to 15.2 without him. That’s the difference between second and 17th — The Heat are 20th with 14.4.

A similar impact comes in the paint. With Mitchell on, the Raptors score 55.0 points in the paint and 48.1 without him. That’s the difference between third and 14th — The Heat are 23rd with 45.9.

I wonder if that’s also something he will bring here. The Heat need that spark offensively to get easier points and points in the paint. Will his athleticism and that factor translate here, too? He will have the personnel with shooters and athletes as the big. He hasn’t seen the kind of athletes like Ware and Adebayo.

I think that’s what you’re going to get from Mitchell. A pesky, elite defender at the point of attack that will hound other guards and make them lose joy on the floor. There are defenders that make you so annoyed that they have to cover you and you’re just like chill!

That defense is invaluable and something the Heat lacked severely. It will help everyone on the team and make their life easier. And with the moves that the Heat have made elsewhere and the context of the team currently, they are leaning toward defense and he fits perfectly — mud season, here we come.

On offense, it’s not going to be someone that can be a scorer. Without that pull-up threat, it hurts his overall game. He still finds himself around ~54% TS over the last three seasons. He’s still someone who can look to get to the rim at a reasonable rate on drives. His drives and passing will be the more important part.

I do like the kind of Vincent mold for his role and if that’s the expectation, I can see it turning out pretty well. He has shown enough in these various areas that he can do a bunch of things.

Kyle Anderson

Now, I wasn’t expecting Slo-Mo to stay on the team. There were so many rumors that he wasn’t going to be moved for tax purposes. I don’t envision him getting a lot of minutes and that’s because who are you cutting out? There are already a lot of guys to be playing that position and role, but there’s still potential for him to be used — he has the vibe of a Spoelstra guy.

Similarly to Mitchell, his impact is going to be on the defensive end and it should be a high one.

One thing that immediately stood out a lot is his impact metrics on defense.

The defense has dropped off a bit, probably due to age, but the impact is clearly there. That’s a defensive guy.

It’s elite, elite:

He does a bit of everything, everywhere. Every impact metric loves him. That says a lot:

That is just next level consistency on defense as an impactful defender on various teams in different systems with different teammates. That’s what I’m expecting him to add to this team right away. I get a similar feeling to when PJ Tucker got here a few years ago.

One little note about his past experience is also something that I look forward to. He has played on good teams. He was part of the San Antonio Spurs when Tim Duncan was still playing and when it was Kawhi Leonard’s team. He also played on the Wolves team that was elite defensively.

That’s what I can’t wait to see. Give Spoelstra all the smartest defenders and let him cook.

At this point in his career, he spends most of his time on bigger wings and even bigs, but that’s also not entirely where he’s on. There is still that versatility defensively where he can guard down or up. That’s going to come in handy in how Spoelstra will look to use him.

There are already quotes like this from him:

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a whole bunch of Anderson at the five looks, too, to make the most of it on both ends of the floor.

Maybe with these additions, Wiggins, and what the team is like the defensive coverages will be even more open to changes. We’ve seen them decline from switching, but maybe that makes more of a return. They do have better personnel for it now.

Looking specifically at how Anderson has been doing this, it’s a bit of everything. He grades out well in all defensive metrics. He ranks(ranked) high in steal percentage:

Then he does the same thing with blocks:

He’s also done this at a good enough level on the glass, too:

The thing with him is that it’s a bit of everything everywhere at a high level. Here are some season grades in various statistics, per BBall-Index.

There are some that stand out like the blocks, deflections, and steals. But there’s also some solid rim protection coming from him, too. He’s going to add so much impact in various roles and responsibilities.

His blocks are even fun! He even gets them in such different ways. There are the usual weakside rotations, but many have stood out with him defending a drive and then getting it through the swipe. His swipe blocks whether on the go versus drives or just lurking around have been effective.

With his steals, they’re annoying. That’s where the wingspan has come in handy. He strips ball handlers like he’s a demon. Just watch how many times he pokes the dribble loose like it’s nothing.

He’s a fun defensive player.

Even when looking at some of the perimeter defense, it’s still pretty effective everywhere:

The perimeter isolation defense has taken a hit. It’s only ~500 minutes so far this year, but at this age, it also makes sense. That’s where I don’t see his impact defensively being there in the same way. It can still be elite, it would just be different.

But with everything said, I expect him to get minutes because of all of that. We saw Tucker get minutes and be a starter at an older age, still being as effective. Combined with his high IQ and so much experience defensively, he will play a key role.

The questions come up offensively and they are just as big as they are with Mitchell, and ones that I also think are easier to limit or hide.

We saw how elite his defensive metrics are, but then, his offensive ones are literally going the opposite direction:

This also isn’t something that has been declining over the years. That’s just how he’s been over the years. His most impactful season was just barely above negative.

Here’s another metric just as a comparison, I included PJ Tucker:

I think the biggest difference is him being a much worse threat from 3pt. It is tough for any wing-like player to make an impact without at least a somewhat threatening 3-point shot. For his career, he’s a 34.0% on 2.8 3s PER 100 POSSESSIONS! His highest was a few years ago at 36.0% on 6.6 and he’s currently at 36.5 on 4.7. Another Tucker comparison, he was at 36.6% on 4.7 for his career with two seasons at ~37% on just under 7.

There are certainly ways to use a player who is a non-spacer, but there are also limitations on that and a ceiling for it. There’s only so much that you can experiment with or use him elsewhere to offset the poor spacing.

One of them is off-ball screening. That has been one of the ways the Wolves have looked to use him:

That’s him setting those pin in screens. Expect that to be something that he does a lot of. That is also something that the Heat in general have brought back again this year… so I’m expecting Anderson to set records for most pin-in screens set.

Related to that, there’s also this:

This can be applied to so many areas but it really highlights how good his IQ is, especially when it comes to organizing the offense, even without the ball. His impact offensively is going to have to be carried in this way, with all of the little ways you can do something. You’ll probably find a whole bunch of instances where it’s impact beyond the stat sheet kind of impact.

He doesn’t score. He doesn’t space. He has a slow-motion release that no one cares about. He shoots 47% in transition, up from 45% last year. Here are his percentiles in transition, which should be the easiest to score in:

• 2025: 34th

• 2024: 7th

• 2023: 21st

• 2022: 13th

• 2021: 39th

That’s concerning. His spot-ups and cuts are quite mediocre too:

• 2025: 1.01 / 1.19

• 2024: 0.82 / 1.23

• 2023: 1.15 / 1.20

• 2022: 0.98 / 1.17

• 2021: 1.07 / 0.88

I’m trying to see how else can a player impact the game offensively. Even with guys like Highsmith, he’s at least a 40% shooter on much higher volume and can at least cut and finish better at the rim. For comparison, Highsmith has shot 56.2% and 57.8% from 2pt in these two seasons — Anderson is at 48.7% this year and 48.8% last year. Another red flag offensively.

Spoelstra will have to pull something creative out to make the most out of him. Similarly to Mitchell, there is a reason why his offensive on/off looks like this:

I know Spoelstra can maximize role players, but this will be something else.

One way that can happen is to use him as a hub. Completely go for it as a playmaking machine. Use him in similar ways you do with Adebayo in a way. That’s where him at the five makes the most sense. And thinking about it, that might be one of the only ways to properly maximize him.

Here are his overall passing stats:

That is elite! If you compare him to his role, then amongst off-ball players, it looks even better:

Incredible. That’s the kind of passing genius they’re going to get.

There are two main ways that has been used with the Warriors, that I believe will be how he’s going to be used here. In the post and as a hub around the elbows or the break.

This kind of offense has been the staple of the Warriors offense. He can easily and effectively play this role. That’s also what the Heat usually do. He makes passes to cutters feel so easy. He averages 2.25 assists at the rim. That would rank second on the Heat.

I like him as the hub too. Some of the reads that he’s made are quick and snappy, and the window to do it was so small. This is where I envision him being mostly used. A lot of these actions are exactly what the Heat runs, so expect the transition to come in smoothly.

It’s these reads that he can make in his sleep. He will act as a simple hub making the pass to the shooter. Or he can improvise and find windows himself.

One thing I haven’t seen much of is short roll playmaking, but I’d bet that is going to be something he does a lot.

You can never have enough high IQ and high-level passers. Does it somewhat overlap with guys like Adebayo or Jovic? Sure, but that passing skill can be used in many ways, especially when others can be used differently, too. Now, guys like Adebayo or Jovic will have someone equally as talented as a passer to get them easy looks. Everyone will feast

This also just brings more smart talent to stagger. There will be a smart passer that can act as a hub at all times. There will be someone who can orchestrate an offense and make tough window passes at all times.

However, this is still a fairly limited role, one that I can’t see being as effective in a playoff setting. That’s why I don’t see Anderson play a big role unless the matchup asks for it.

But combined with his defense, his size, his length, and his IQ, there is 100% a place for him in the rotation. There will be matchups that he will be needed for.

This is yet another player that Spoelstra should have fun experimenting with and seeing what he can cook up using their talent and IQ.

Overall thoughts

The Heat has two players that will add so much on the defensive end. They got more athletic with Mitchell and got more size with Anderson(he does have almost a 7’3 wingspan!). Their defensive impact and in what roles they can be used should help tremendously.

Both address a need on this team.

With Mitchell, they get a pesky point-of-attack defender that they haven’t had in a long, long while. This is going to be likely the best on-ball guard defender that Adebayo has played with. That is going to make his life a lot easier.

That defense and that dawg is something that a team needs. The benefit is things like being able to press without giving up advantages. Mitchell will have the luxury now, too, to play more aggressively and be all in up in ball handler’s faces knowing that he has arguably the best defender behind him.

That alone changes a lot for the Heat. That’s also not to mention that this can make life easier and different for other defenders. Wiggins and Highsmith can have different responsibilities now. They can be used differently because they won’t have to overcompensate for helping or needing to put someone on guard.

With Anderson, they are getting a player who has been at the top in every possible metric on defense. Whether it’s impact metrics or tracking or simply blocks and steals, Anderson has done it all.

That near 7’3 wingspan with IQ that’s much more important is going to do wonders. They can legitimately have a full defensive lineup with high IQ and elite tools. That can be versatility at its finest.

Offensively, though, with both players is where the issues come in. It’s those issues that the expectations should be lowered because, in certain situations, it can be that bad. They have issues and question marks that could be 100% unplayable against certain matchups and I don’t think Spoelstra can save that.

At the same time, they aren’t here to be game-changers. They aren’t going to be starters. So, for that kind of role, responsibility, and usage, there is enough of something that they provide that can be useful and valuable.

With Mitchell, he may not be a shooter or a scorer. He may be almost a complete zero as a scorer if it’s not at the rim. He may need to have the ball to not get helped off. But he also provides more pace. His passing can be the big difference-maker here. His attacks, drives, and ability to turn the corner will likely be the best on the team in a while.

With Anderson, Spoelstra has yet another player that can effectively be used as a hub. Watching some of the passes he was making or how he looked with the Wolves in the playoffs, the IQ makes up for a lot of it.

Overall, both players should fit perfectly well as key role players off the bench.