Oh. I’m ready for this season. I have not felt this happy about basketball starting since probably 2022. It’s been over 4 years since I was ecstatic for the Miami Heat season to start. I don’t have to fool or lie to myself that there maybe, maybe this will be the year that it gets better because… vibes are better?
Nope. No more. No more banking on the vibes being better because Jimmy Butler took all his toxicity away. No more getting gaslighted by Erik Spoelstra that a Terry Rozier or Norman Powell-Tyler Herro backcourt will work. No more having blind hope that maybe all the young players will take an astronomical outlier leap. No more hoping that the team will overachieve because of Spoelstra’s voodoo magic that will make Bill Simmons afraid of the zombie Heat.
There’s no need for that anymore. Why is there no need for that?
Because Pat Riley saw the washed memes over the years:
He saw the jokes over the years that the Heat’s front office is stuck in the prehistoric ages. That he’s lapped by other presidents — not going to lie, I felt that they were, too.
I wasn’t getting my hopes up for big changes this season. I would’ve been perfectly content moving on from Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and reshuffling some of the roster, without making any significant moves that would’ve affected the already limited war chest.
But then came June 23rd.
Shams tweet went up, and it was no longer a possibility. It was done. The Heat acquired a generational talent(this isn’t one of those cases where everyone is generational).
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a Heatle.
I couldn’t believe my eyes. I saw it when I woke up because, of course, trades have to happen whenever I’m asleep(on a side note, I remember waking up to the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade early, and it WOKE me up). I think at that point, I was honestly convincing myself that this wasn’t going to happen.
My fandom with the Heat started a bit late. I missed the entirety of the big three. I didn’t get to experience Dwyane Wade in his prime or LeBron James. The closest thing to a superstar is Butler in the playoffs. But that wasn’t sheer, consistent dominance across the regular season that doesn’t need to elevate to top 5 level but simply is a top 5 player. That’s Giannis.
I got told I haven’t been this rah rah as I’ve been recently:
or that many are surprised that Heat fans and the media are being annoying.
And I mean yes, duh. The Heat got a superstar, so it’s kind of easier to buy in. The Heat are finally good(how good doesn’t matter; they are better than whatever we were watching the last few years in general, especially the previous two seasons) — side note, I get that suffering through three, not even that terrible years is not a lot. It could’ve been worse. You could be the Pelicans or the Kings.
But basketball is fun again. I will no longer go into each game thinking “How can my favourite team hurt me this time?”
And because basketball is fun, here’s everything(things you didn’t even ask for) you need(or don’t need but it’s fun to mention) to know about the Miami Heat going into this season.
After finishing the piece and receiving a needed feedback, it ended up being far too long for one single piece than I thought it’d be. That’s why this will be split into two parts. This first part will include the outlook for the team and all questions and concerns relating to the offense because there’s a whole bunch. In the second part, you will find the rest of the topics that talk about the defense, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, and other tidbits, alongside predictions at the end
Part two:
Miami Heat 2026-27 Season Preview Part 2: Adebayo, defense, Pelle’s leap, backcourt concerns, Wiggins & predictions
No need for an introduction. Let’s jump right into itSimply Ballin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Outlook for the team
A quick check on the offense from last year
What will Giannis bring?
How will Giannis-Adebayo fit together?
Is there enough spacing?
Are they going to be utterly hopeless without Giannis?
Will this be the most dangerous transition team?
Is there a lack of shot creation?
Outlook for the team
Let’s start with the general outlook on the team because there’s been far too many disagreements and passionate discussions on Twitter(I counted 83 discussions).
I must say, I was a bit lower on the team before the trade happened and when it was finalised. It wasn’t until actually digging deeper into the question marks and the arguments against them that made me see the pathway forward to being a contender — though I still wouldn’t have them as a favourite, especially in the finals.
Outside of that, I think they are right in the mix with everyone else, especially in the East. The more I think about it, I don’t see any team being a tier above another team. Some teams may get the benefit of the doubt given their continuity and recent track record(teams like the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, and Detroit Pistons all have a solid case to be above them in the regular season). Beyond that, it’s fair game to everyone, both in the regular season and the playoffs.
A lot of the arguments against the Heat come from not looking deeper into what actually happened last year. How you will view this team with Giannis entirely depends on how you viewed Bam Adebayo, the rest of the team, and the players that got traded.
If you just look at their seeding and remember how the Heat were in two previous seasons where they got demolished by the Celtics or the Cleveland Cavaliers, being low on the Heat makes sense.
But the Heat from this year were actually good! I know it’s not a 1-1 comparison, but the Heat this year were over 2pts better per 100 possessions than they were when they added Butler to that 2019 team, that were on pace to almost win 50 games.
The Heat this year ranked 14th in net rating with +2.3. They had the 12th best offense and 13th best defense. They weren’t as bad as people make them out to be.
I saw takes that said this is a similar level to the Bucks without Giannis. The Bucks for the year were 25th with a -6.6 net rating. If you include Giannis on the court, they were +4.1. Not that far off from the Heat in general. But if you include Adebayo on the court, that net rating jumps to +6.7.
Let’s compare that +6.7 net rating with a 119.2 offense and 112.5 defense to other Eastern teams:
Raptors with Scottie Barnes: +4.9 with 116.9 and 112.1
Celtics with Jaylen Brown: +6.4 with 121.2 and 114.8
Hawks with Jalen Johnson: +3.8 with 117.2 and 113.4
Magic with Paolo Banchero: -0.1 with 114.9 and 115.0
Knicks with Jalen Brunson: +6.4 with 122.3 and 115.9
Pistons with Cade Cunningham: +11.4 with 121.4 and 110.0
Cavaliers with Donovan Mitchell: +6.6 with 121.4 and 114.8
76ers with Tyrese Maxey: +2.1 with 116.7 and 114.6
A lot of these star players also had much better teammates, too. Whereas Adebayo’s most talented offensive players that left, Powell and Herro, were impacting the minutes in the opposite way.
There’s also been a narrative that the Heat were only good because they were beating bad teams, and that’s going to go away this year. But that doesn’t hold at all when you look at the fact that the Heat were 12-17 vs top 10 teams with the 3rd best offense and 18th defense — that record was better than the Celtics, Magic, Hawks, 76ers, and Raptors. Maybe it was the rest of the East teams beating on bad teams?
Then there’s the main narrative that the Heat traded so much for Giannis that they were left with nothing.
“Clears throat”
Those are the three main players that they lost in the off-season. And in the case of Herro, the logic entirely falls apart either way because he missed more than half of the season. They won 43 games without their most talented guard, so he either wasn’t that needed in their success or the team wasn’t as bad as you’d think.
Either Herro or Powell in that starting lineup will easily be replaced by either Klay Thompson or Tim Hardaway Jr., especially by the latter.
The only significant loss was Jaime Jaquez Jr but you can live with that when that gets replaced by Giannis.
But even when you look at the team with Adebayo over the last 2 seasons without either Herro or Jaquez, you will see this:
This will be touched on later on with the non-Giannis minutes. But the point continues to be that the team just wasn’t that bad to begin with. You are not adding Giannis to the 2024 or 2025 Heat where the Heat were struggling to be positive in Adebayo’s minutes. You are not adding Giannis to those two teams that were bottom 10 offensively. You are not adding Giannis to a team that struggled to win against good competition(the Heat went 6-18 vs top 10 net teams in 2025 and 5-20 in 2024. They had more wins this year against top 10 teams than the previous two combined).
That’s why I don’t understand the narrative that the Heat can’t possibly be in the top 6 or top 4 because other teams have gotten better when they were already better. When the Heat were already on a similar level as those teams, too. The Heat were only three games behind a 5th-seeded Raptors. Other teams got better, but so did the Heat.
Now, that’s also not to say that the Heat are some juggernauts and without any issues. This isn’t saying they will be winning 60-plus games and have solved basketball from every angle. But it’s how they are talked about in comparison to other teams using arguments that are easily debunked. Again, not saying there aren’t any arguments against the Heat, but the ones that are used just don’t make sense given what actually happened.
Because how can you explain someone like John Hollinger saying they will need all the magic and excellence from both Spoelstra and Giannis to squeeze 40-odd wins? Or by Michael Pina that they will be utterly hopeless without Giannis on the court? Or have a question mark if they could reach an average offense when they have a freaking top 5 player on the team added to an offense that was already above average!
Some of those arguments didn’t even mention health. How can I take an argument seriously when a team that was worse, led by a player that is significantly worse than Giannis, would lead a worse team to fewer wins than Giannis would with a better team?
The logic is just logic-ing.
I realise that we are also in an age where you can win without a clear top 5 level superstar talent, where depth and your 2-5 players matter just as much. But I fear we’ve gone a bit too far in remembering how much a clear MVP-level player can raise the floor of a team.
You really want me to believe that you have more faith in Jalen Johnson or Paolo Banchero carrying an arguably slightly better team than Giannis? Have we got to a point where Giannis is now underrated?
A player that has pulled this kind of stretch:
A player that has not been on a team that wasn’t at least on a 50-win pace team since 2018 when he was 23. This is the kind of impact Giannis has had:
I know this is a very simplistic view, but for some players that is what happens. That’s how I feel about Nikola Jokic now. Or Stephen Curry and LeBron in the past. There are some players in the world that you look at the roster and think the roster may not be that good, but they have that guy. I still think Giannis is at a level where he should get some benefit of the doubt. Because I have seen people unironically say “well actually we haven’t seen Giannis carry a good enough offense, particularly in the playoffs”.
Oh, and they still do employ arguably the best coach in basketball. That should matter to some extent when it comes to picking them over certain teams. Because why are we putting more faith in Sean Sweeny building a new offense around Banchero and Franz Wagner and worrying that Spoelstra may not have an AVERAGE offense with Giannis?
The Heat do have a lot of questions. This isn’t a think piece to say they are perfect. They aren’t the favourite to win a championship. They lack some needed pieces on the offensive end. And speaking of the offensive end, there are concerns there. But that should all be talked about in relation to them competing in the playoffs and now if their offense will be good enough to get out of the play-in.
Because there’s also a difference in having even a team like the Magic over them when they’re 45-47 wins together instead of having the Heat barely reach 40 and have the Magic or Hawks be a near 50-win team — that just doesn’t make sense at all.
To me, they are just in a good place. They have the foundation to have a high floor, winning around 45 games. I see them reaching over 50. Although they do have a bunch of questions, there are some areas that have a lot of realistic avenues to answer them, as we will see when addressing some of the top questions.
That’s the outlook for this team. They were a decent enough team last year that had completely revamped the offense that’s perfectly suited for Giannis. They got their superstar. They have their identity from last year on both ends. And it will now be seeing how all of that will fall into place.
This will likely be the bulk of concerns when it comes to the Heat this year. That’s the one area that has either the most red flags or question marks that are left to be figured out.
As I was planning this piece and writing my first draft, so many different questions arose, and many are also interlinked. The more I wrote, the questions continued to pile up. This whole section on the offense probably could’ve been a whole piece in itself, so I have attempted to cut things out.
But at the same time, many of the things to either look forward to or things that should be answered have to do with the offense. It wouldn’t have been a thorough preview if all of those points weren’t addressed.
So, this will be split up into subparts:
A quick check on the offense from last year
What will Giannis bring?
How will Giannis-Adebayo fit together?
Is there enough spacing?
Are they going to be utterly hopeless without Giannis?
Will this be the most dangerous transition team?
Is there a lack of shot creation?
A quick check on the offense from last year
I don’t want to dwell too much on last season in the preview, but this has to be included because I fear again that people didn’t watch the Heat.
The first clue was how on national TV they mentioned how the Heat will struggle with the loss of Herro’s playmaking in the fourth to close out games — that makes sense, right? Except Herro only played 213 minutes in the 4th or OT, and the Heat were -4.5 net with a 112.8 ORTG with him on. That jumped to +5.2 with a 116.8 ORTG without him in 776 minutes.
The other clues actually came from Heat fans when they were talking about the offense needing to change again because it was figured out.
Spoiler. It wasn’t.
I had my reservations about the offense last season. I got fooled too many times before to believe that they were going to run and change everything. They proved me wrong, and I’m so happy for that. Unfortunately, at the same time, we also can’t comment on how that offense would fare in a playoff setting with a defense so locked into you like a predator, studying and dissecting every move you’ve made and could potentially make and stop the counters before you even look to make them.
But having an 82-game sample of it working as well as it did and not falling off as the year went on is, at the very least, a very positive indicator, especially given the limited offensive talent. The scheme worked as intended. It didn’t need to be dominating. It didn’t need to be amazing. It showed that there is a good enough foundation to build on it and that it could provide answers to whatever the defense may throw at you.
They ranked 12th in the league with a 116.9 ORTG, per Cleaning the Glass. They were also 11th in the halfcourt, but had the 2nd lowest frequency — that was their staple. They tied first in transition frequency but were only 18th in points per play.
It was also said that their offense was figured out. But when you look at their ORTG, halfcourt ORTG and transition ORTG by month:
October: 118.1: 101.2: 134.1
November: 116.7: 101.3: 119.2
December: 115.3: 99.0: 116.6
January: 111.4: 93.1: 119.1
February: 117.4: 97.2: 134.6
March: 119.8: 101.6: 129.0
April: 128.4: 108.4: 143.7
That argument doesn’t hold up. They were above average in half-court offense in five of the seven months. The only bad month was January.
Their offense being figured out doesn’t hold true even when you filter by competition. They were ninth in the half-court with 96.4(94.7 is average) vs. top 10 defensive teams. That also jumped to 97.6 in the calendar year. If we do top 10 net rating teams instead, that number is 100.3(!) where the average is 95.6, and they ranked third. Please tell me how their offense was figured out.
However, looking deeper into the stats, red flags and concerns do show up a bit more. Although they rank 12th in ORTG, they also ranked 18th in oTS. Their overall offense was bumped by maximising possessions, being third in oTOV and 10th in ORB. Then you also had the rim finishing issues, where they ranked 21st.
Those are real concerns that I would’ve had if they made the playoffs with that team. That’s when I would’ve had some eyebrow-raising looking cautiously at the ceiling of the offense. There would’ve been issues of who’s actually going to create the offense when things stall. It’s easy to say you won’t get to that point, but playoff defense is a different animal.
But the offense still proved to be more of a success than not. It still proved to have more potential answers to those questions. This complete change to this kind of offense felt poetic. It was as if Spoelstra was doing a trial run for when they get Giannis because this offense is suited perfectly for him.
And that’s where Giannis comes in.
What will Giannis bring?
When it was finally official that he was a Heatle and analysis started to come up, there were questions about what the offense is going to look like. Will Spoelstra continue this gimmicky offense, even with a talent like Giannis? Some said it can now be scrapped. Some said that the pick-and-roll offense would be back.
I don’t think any of that should happen. Having that offense was the whole point. I don’t think there’s a better scheme that would be suited for a player like him — a Twitter user, RK_Draft, had the same thought that this year, Jaquez was the proof of concept that this offense is going to be booming with Giannis.
Before this season, I was always in the camp that said the offense that Spoelstra whipped out was bad. There were many schematic parts that made me think, “What? Why?” Of course, talent was also an issue, but it did feel more on the overall system and principles that made life harder than it needed to be.
That flipped entirely last year. I genuinely loved the entire offense. That was the kind of offense that you can build so much around — the possibilities are endless. There was a great foundation to insert other types of players that could bring something new and different. It gave them more of a floor to experiment. It also meant that there can be a sacrifice in certain roles you’d think are needed.
And now everything is going to be amplified because Giannis is on the team. Not only is he going to amplify other players, but he will also amplify the offense to be more versatile and dangerous and less prone for the defense to figure it out.
Giannis is the missing piece that solves a lot of the red flags that showed up last year.
I mentioned one of the concerning stats for the Heat was their poor oTS. So, this is Giannis’ impact on that:
For comparison, Bam’s three-year factor oTS was at -0.2. Even if we include noisy data from this year, it was +1.7 — still nowhere near Giannis.
Then there’s also the effect on rim pressure — one of the greatest forces at the rim to ever live:
Looking at some raw numbers. In the last five years, the Bucks with Giannis on shot 71.6% at the rim(+5.6% above average) with a 31.5% frequency(+2.8% better). Both numbers drop significantly to 66.0% and 22.7%.
Giannis alone made 11 rim attempts per 75 possessions. Ware, Jaquez, Herro, and Powell combined for 12.5. Imagine that. One player making almost as many shots at the rim as four players.
This is also Giannis, who has had this level of impact in various roles. We’ve seen throughout the years him be used more as a roller, more in PNRs, play with Damian Lillard, play without Lillard or Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton, or play more in the post. Giannis has played in different ways, but his elite, elite impact remains consistent.
I’m not going to pretend and say I have the answers to how Giannis is going to be used, especially when he has so much versatility.
I think what makes Giannis so special is not only how dominant he is but how unique. He isn’t just a one-trick pony(even if he does run and dunk a lot).
Looking at how he has been used over the years.
This is his roll man, ball handler in pick and roll and total frequency:
2026: 5.5%: 8.5%: 14.0%
2025: 8.5%: 11.4%: 19.9%
2024: 7.2%: 12.1%: 19.3%
2023: 6.2%: 11.3%: 17.5%
2022: 6.8%: 6.7%: 13.5%
Then you have the isolations:
2026: 11.8%
2025: 17.9%
2024: 12.6%
2023: 14.0%
2022: 17.9%
His post-ups:
2026: 19.1%
2025: 14.9%
2024: 11.9%
2023: 11.4%
2022: 12.6%
And finally his finishing, which are cuts and putbacks:
2026: 8.3%: 8.7%: 17.0%
2025: 8.5%: 6.1%: 14.6%
2024: 9.6%: 7.0%: 16.6%
2023: 5.7%: 5.3%: 11.0%
2022: 8.0%: 4.9%: 12.9%
That’s a lot of numbers here. The point is he does a bit of everything. This is truly such a unique player. There’s no singular way that you can’t find a viable option to use him as.
The versatility in his playtypes is what’s important and will be the reason this offense will skyrocket. As surprising as it may seem, I think I’m now leaning more into the offense being the driver for this season, rather than the defense.
Giannis gives options. It diversifies the offense. Having more counters and ways to generate offense is always a good thing. And when you look at it through the lens of what the offense already was, you can see how that can come up.
Now, this definitely gives Spoelstra a lot of work. There are so many avenues you can go down on.
The simplest one, and one that I think I’d want to see, is using Giannis as a hub, particularly in the post. I don’t need that to be a staple of the offense. I don’t need anything to be a staple of the offense. But this is an action that should be used to play into his strengths too — that’s my biggest question. How could Spoelstra implement some post-ups for Giannis?
Same goes with the pick-and-rolls. The team’s overall PNR usage should go up because, again, that is the point of having a player like Giannis. I don’t envision Giannis having a similar rate as he did in the past(around 20%), though.
I still think the offense is going to be more similar to last year than not. Think of the offense last year with Adebayo, but this time, we’re in Space Jam, and Adebayo took Giannis’ powers.
Get ready to see Giannis be around the 3pt line and be so dangerous that we’ll rename Corey Maggette cutting with his name. Giannis surprisingly has had great spacing numbers:
The volume hasn’t been there since 2019 and 2020 where he averaged over 5 possessions per 100 on great efficiency. There’s already proof of Giannis being good at this. Spot up doesn’t just mean taking those catch-and-shoot 3s. It also means attacking closeouts.
I don’t know about you, but I’d be more terrified of Giannis cutting and relocating and then sprinting towards the ball and attacking on the go.
Another big part of Giannis game that probably should change some of Spoelstra’s philosophy is to do with offensive rebounding.
This is Giannis's ability to grab his own misses:
Then this is grabbing teammates’:
Giannis' 3-year factor oREB has been positive in the last three years. The Heat haven’t been known for that, routinely ranking near the bottom. That has changed this year, and with Giannis, this might likely jump even higher.
So, in general, I envision the offense to be more similar to last year than anything else. Giannis being here shouldn’t change that foundation. There shouldn’t be bringing in PNRs or going away from the wheel offense. Giannis isn’t a guard or a wing that should require a different style of play. He’s a ball-handling big that is capable of doing everything on offense in small bursts. Again, think of Jaquez.
With how everyone else fits the offense, I see more of a world where it’s Giannis himself that will grow into the scheme, rather than the other way round. It will be a similar case as with Adebayo, where both the player’s talent and scheme amplify one another.
But at the same time, it would be doing a disservice to the offense if you don’t adjust the scheme to also fit whatever Giannis needs. Because there will be a lot of adjusting to be made. This isn’t adding Powell into a new offense like last year. This is adding a player that ranks in the 100th percentile in true shooting attempts — that’s almost a guaranteed 35 shots per 100 you now need to consider.
We have seen Spoelstra implement systems and make players adapt that suit their strengths in a way that can transform any kind of player into a useful contributor. He has been A+ in getting everything out of a player.
He did that with players who are riding the bench or are out of the league completely on other teams once they left the Heat.
We've also seen him do wonders for all sorts of star players — Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Jimmy Butler — to a point where all of them have changed and improved their games for the better. Most recently, that has been with Butler, who underwent so many changes in how he was used offensively at different points that were all highly impactful.
He’s now getting one of the most unique players to have ever played. He’s getting a generational player that transcends what basketball players should be capable of doing on the court. There are no words that can perfectly describe the dominance and the uniqueness of Giannis’ game.
So, although this should still be that egalitarian offense, with duties shared by committee, there’s now also the biggest safety net to generate offense in Giannis, which will simplify a lot of the offense for everyone else.
How will Giannis-Adebayo fit together?
This will be the biggest question, and I think this is more of a question regarding Adebayo.
I have mixed feelings about this duo’s fit on offense. I don’t think it will be terrible to a point where it doesn’t make sense or that they will need to come up with something crazy to work with.
A lot of that comes from Adebayo being able to mold to whatever is needed, especially after the leap he took this year in his development(we’ll touch on that later). He hasn’t been good in the role, but he has finally taken the jump to be an off-ball player. He’s jacking up 3s with confidence. He doesn’t need to set screens to be effective. He can be on the perimeter, rather than the dunker. There have been adjustments in his games to make this work more.
But simply working and being maximised are two different things.
I think about both Butler and Adebayo and also Giannis with Brook Lopez.
Here’s the rORTG with Adebayo/Butler on together, Adebayo on/Butler off, Butler on/Adebayo off:
2020: +4.9 / +0.6 / +2.1
2021: -0.5 / -1.1 / +1.4
2022: -0.1 / +5.9 / +6.2
2023: +2.0 / -2.8 / +0.3
Here are their individual stats in that span too:
In the Heat’s best season, the team was significantly better on offense with one of them on than together. In their individual stats, you can see some increases in aspects that make their game more effective, such as their foul drawing.
This was also a similar trend for the Bucks with Giannis and Lopez, especially in the playoffs:
I can see this duo being another case of this. Sure, it is likely that they will work. And it’s also a very different offense with a very different Adebayo. But I still have question marks about how they can both be used together to help each other.
Some would go straight into they can run pick and rolls with both of them but that feels like a wasted possession most of the time. Both players will be guarded by similar defenders, so the action will almost always be a switch, which will likely turn into an isolation or a post-up, but all you did was drain the clock.
Using those players in the same actions or on the same side isn’t going to be the way to maximise them. That will be the question to figure out.
A thing to look out for is both of their finishing playtypes. Giannis over the years has a fairly consistent ~15% of his actions being either cuts or putbacks(we’ve seen his elite offensive rebounding). Adebayo until this season was over 20%, but that dropped in this new offense where he traded those actions for spot-up opportunities.
An encouraging point is that we have seen Adebayo in this offense with a player that has similar limitations. Disclaimer. This isn’t making a 1-1 comparison with Jaquez, but looking at how that worked with everyone else where similar concerns come up, it is worth seeing the potential with someone that has strengths, which outweigh so many other concerns.
The Heat with Adebayo and Jaquez had a 118.4 ORTG, despite also sharing most of the minutes with Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith and Pelle Larsson — all players that are still here. Take away someone like Wiggins, and it jumps to 119.4. Take away Powell, and it’s 118.3, or Herro and it’s 118.8.
Both Adebayo and Jaquez were getting to the rim more and finishing better with each other. They also shared a lot of minutes with players that didn’t provide spacing either.
If that duo made it work, I feel more optimistic about Giannis taking Jaquez’s place.
And although there are question marks, if there are going to be issues with the team offensively, I’d put this issue lower, in terms of them struggling offensively in the playoffs.
Is there enough spacing
One of the other reasons will likely be spacing. The team only has Tim Hardaway Jr. and Klay Thompson as players I’d comfortably say are genuine shooters, are good at making shots, and have such confidence that it stresses the defense. Everyone else falls outside of that.
Even players like Wiggins who have shot 40% from 3pt, that is still someone that I’m choosing to beat me. Wiggins shot 50% on wide-open 3s in the 2025 playoffs(so did Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic, and Mitchell), and the Cavaliers still packed the paint and were right to do so.
A lot of that comes from the player’s ability to put up a high volume of 3s. That’s not only dependent on having someone like Giannis to generate those shots. It’s a skill to be able to put up double digits attempt.
I also don’t believe banking on simply catch-and-shoot 3s as a good offense. It’s too much variance on that end. Both the Thunder and the Mavericks in the past have made each other pay by making the role players hit shots.
This will be one of the areas that I fear could easily be exploited against elite defenses.
Are they going to be utterly hopeless without Giannis
I don’t get this concern to an extent. This brings me back to thinking the team was worse than it actually was or overrating the players that left.
There is this talk that outside of Giannis, there’s no one that can score or dribble or attack. But wasn’t that the case this year already?
The way the Heat built the offense was to not be reliant on anyone or need anyone to pound the ball. As long as Adebayo was on the court, it didn’t matter who wasn’t. Per DataBallr(padded)
No Powell: 119.0 ORTG
No Herro: 119.3
No Jaquez: 118.2
No Ware: 118.3
No Mitchell: 120.2
No Mitchell or Herro: 121.0
No Mitchell or Powell: 120.0
No Mitchell or Jaquez: 117.9
No Jaquez or Herro: 119.0
No Jaquez or Powell: 118.9
No Wiggins: 120.4
No Wiggins or Jaquez: 119.9
No Wiggins or Powell: 120.5
It really doesn’t matter if there is extra ball handling or not. At some point, there are too many combinations, and the sample size for the offense was good with Adebayo.
Even when you look at the halfcourt offense with Adebayo on:
Adebayo on: 101.0
No Herro: 100.2
No Powell: 99.3
No Herro or Powell: 98.1
No Jaquez: 100.9
No Herro, Powell or Jaquez: 97.8
No Mitchell: 98.2
Even if you want to be cautious and predict some drop-off, I doubt it will go from that to dead in the water.
Because when you also compare the halfcourt with Adebayo to other stars:
Will this be the most dangerous transition team?
This may not seem like a big thing to mention, considering they were already leading the league in transition possessions per game and frequency. But that’s also the point. They were leading the league in volume but weren’t close in efficiency.
Per Cleaning the Glass, they were okay in points added in transition with +3.7. They were also 18th in points per play at 125.0.
Their value in transition came mostly from volume. Everything was fast. Their offensive pace led the league at 13.0. Over 44% of their shots came within the first nine seconds on the clock. But they ranked towards the bottom in eFG% on those shots. That jump in volume in getting those kinds of shots was enough to boost the efficiency. But now consider they are getting one of the most dangerous players ever in transition.
Giannis is the second greatest transition scorer period(the first is obviously LeBron). But the one thing that Giannis does have over anyone ever is the ability to put up volume so high that it doesn’t make sense:
Out of all possible seasons from 2001, there are five seasons with at least nine transition true shooting attempts. He’s responsible for four of them(hello, Russell Westbrook in 2015). There’s no one that can scale to that volume so consistently. Even Westbrook only has one season over nine attempts.
When we look at his frequency instead, it is:
2026: 26.0%
2025: 22.1%
2024: 23.5%
2023: 27.2%
2022: 27.6%
What separates Giannis from other high-volume transition scorers is his efficiency too. In his last three seasons, he has been at least 5% above league average. No one comes close with that blend of volume and efficiency.
This isn’t anything new or shocking, but he did this when the Bucks ranked 23rd, 17th, 12th, 13th, 2nd in offensive pace in the last five years. The year they ranked second, it was a 13.9s offensive pace. For comparison, the Heat last year ranked first with 13.1.
This was the Bucks’ transition frequency with Giannis on and the percentiles in the last five years:
2026: 15.6%(59th)
2025: 15.3%(58th)
2024: 15.2%(59th)
2023: 18.0%(95th)
2022: 18.1%(94th)
In other words, Giannis was doing a lot of damage in transition regardless of the team’s scheme to push pace or not. He’s joining the team that is encouraging to run more.
The Bucks’ transition offense, when it comes to efficiency, also wasn’t great either. They always ranked 18th or worse since 2020. But when you add Giannis to the equation, it’s insane at his impact in that area.
This is the Bucks’ general efficiency versus with Giannis(I chose the Bucks in general rather than simply without Giannis on the court to show how much he simply boosts the entire rating)
2026: 117.7 vs 118.3
2025: 123.8 vs 128.7
2024: 125.7 vs 127.8
2023: 122.0 vs 126.1
2022: 124.7 vs 125.4
He lifts all those teams in their ability to finish in transition. His effect on the frequency is even greater. Here are all of the on/offs:
If the Heat continue to rank top three in volume and frequency, but now they also could rank top 10 in efficiency, that is adding so many more points. Giannis, himself, is likely going to add a lot more points to his total.
We might be ready to watch the best transition team in the league.
Is there a lack of shot creation
If there is one glaring issue about the roster construction so far, it’s the fact that they lack a reliable second option next to Giannis — this will be the biggest issue with their offense. Not only that, but even if you include Giannis, they don’t have anyone who can get theirs off the dribble on the perimeter.
There’s no one that can soak up so much of the creation outside of Giannis. There’s also no one that can put any pressure with off-dribble 3s.
The first issue is anyone that can help Giannis in shot creation in general. I don’t think that’s a hot take to say that teams should have a second guy that can create off the dribble.
This likely matters more when we consider the type of player Giannis is offensively. He’s a big. That matters in how you’re able to generate offense. That matters in how the defense will defend you. And that will matter in determining the counters you can have. We’ve seen throughout history that bigs also need good, reliable guard or wing play.
In Milwaukee, the Bucks did have Khris Middleton. I’m not a Bucks fan, and I found myself pushing a lot of Middleton agenda recently because it feels like his prime became so underrated.
Middleton routinely scaled up the volume in creation so much that it helped Giannis with the burden of carrying the offense, and it made the offense a lot more versatile.
There’s no one on the roster that even could put up so many shots to begin with, let alone doing it with that efficiency.
There’s this counter that I’ve been seeing that does it even matter because Giannis will generate so many open shots for everyone and will make their life easier in ways that they don’t have to create as much for themselves.
I fear that would be putting a lot on Giannis to consistently do without burning out on the court. But also, it will make the offense a lot more predictable — Thunder.
Now, you can also then argue that it is doable to win. Sure, that is true. There are other examples that you could point to — think 2019 Toronto Raptors or 2022 Golden State Warriors. There’s always the saying you can’t win with X until you do. And I guess that’s true, but winning a championship is hard. I wouldn’t rule them out from doing so because of it, but winning at that level will come down to the margins, and you want to stack the deck in your favour as much as you can. Not having a reliable second creator takes away those cards.
The other part of that equation is there’s no pressure from 3pt from anyone. The best offenses have someone that can pressure the defense with off-the-dribble 3pt — no Thompson or THJ are that.
Herro led the team with 3.3 pull-up 3s per game. Powell was second with 2.8. Then you have a drop. You have Mitchell and Adebayo at 0.8 and 0.7. If you look at the unassisted 3s, Herro led the team with 25% of his 3s made being unassisted. Then it was Powell with 14.1%. Mitchell was 3rd with 13.3%.
I know that the Heat are going from PNR offense, but that skill alone is a needed one to keep the defenses on their toes. Because when you look at the team, who can bend the defense with their 3s? No one.
And even when you take away that qualifier, there’s still no one that can even take on the responsibility to create off the dribble.
That is going to be one of the biggest question marks for their offense.
Seven thousand words later, and this should have addressed a lot of the questions and concerns heading into the season with the offense.
I think that’s the beauty of this offense. Because it has so many things to talk about and potential ways to improve, potential adjustments and ways to implement Giannis, it has a much higher chance of being one of the best offenses.
You are giving Spoelstra so much to cook from. This will be a top Michelin-star chef going to work with the best ingredients. No more cooking whatever you can get your hands on and making it work.
Now, onto part two of the preview where we’ll focus on Adebayo, the rest of the team, some backcourt concerns, and defense.