Philadelphia 76ers 2024-25 Season Preview
Philadelphia 76ers 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
As it is with the Philadelphia 76ers, a lot of their seasons came to a quick end because of health issues. Whether it’s ruining their chances for a higher seed, having your top players miss time in the playoffs, or even having the best player not be 100% in any series.
Their season already started on a bad note. Before the first game was played we had James Harden say “Daryl Morey is a liar and I will never be a part of an organization that he’s part of”. But if you missed that, he did make sure to say that again. That’s already a great start to the season.
That changes things drastically. That’s already going into the season knowing you need to trade your second-best player. They did that quickly and received Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris, Robert Covington, KJ Martin, and picks — all played at least 25 games for the 76ers, but it was only Batum who either was on the team or got minutes in the playoffs.
Not to worry, though. The team was still good. A lot of that was with Joel Embiid playing like the best player in the world. In his first 25 games, he averaged 35.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 3.2 stocks per game on 56.6% eFG and 65.1% TS. But of course, this is the 76ers and they can’t have nice things because after those 25 games, he ended up playing 14 more.
That’s when things started to fall apart. They went 20-5 in those games Embiid played — they went 11-3 in the games after with him. Overall, they were +9.8 net in 1309 minutes with Embiid on the court with a 121.2 offensive rating.
They were -0.5 in 2647 with a 115.2 offense with him off the court. They went 16-27 without him and were -3.7 with a 113.4 offense in those games. That’s a 79% win team with him! But a 37% win team without him.
They tried to make some moves. They ended up getting Buddy Hield, Cameron Payne, and Kyle Lowry. But in the end, that still resulted in being in the play-in because they were too deep in the hole already.
Their series against the Knicks was solid enough, considering the circumstances. Both Embiid and Tyrese Maxey had a great series(especially Maxey in this new role). The issues were similar to the regular season, though.
The 76ers with Embiid on were +8.4 with a 124.9 offense and a 116.5 defense. Erm, they were -50.7 without him. I can’t remember the last time I saw a swing like this in a playoff series. And this was with Embiid not looking like 100% at all.
When it comes to their off-season, they took swings. They were planning for this. They made sure to have all of the cap space they did. And it worked. They got top-end talent with the maximum money. They added pieces around the edges. They retained their players. This was as good of an off-season as they could’ve got.
Getting Paul George is the highest swing move they could’ve made. He’s an All-NBA caliber player. He gives them something that not many players in the NBA can do. He fits. He raises both their floor and the ceiling. This has the potential to be the best off-season move for any team. With the lesser moves, they signed Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon, Andre Drummond, and Reggie Jackson and drafted Jared McCain. Equally as important, they extended both Maxey and Embiid.
There are no distractions this time. There are no potential players asking out to mess things up. This is the year for the 76ers.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the 76ers?
How will George fit in with everyone? How much better does he make them?
Embiid was having a career year, can he repeat that?
Can he at least be healthy from start to finish?
Will Maxey continue to take those leaps? Can we see an All-NBA appearance?
Is this the best team in the Embiid era? How will so many of role players and vets look?
Do they have enough size in the frontcourt?
Is this a legit contender?
The first and biggest question has to do with George. That’s the most significant change in all of this.
I went through this signing and how that will fit in more detail here:
How will he look as a player period? He is 34 years old and is coming off a not-so-good playoff series. How much of a potential decline, if any, can we expect to see?
His rim pressure has declined to 16.0% of his shots at the rim, per PBP stats. That’s the lowest since 2017 — though, he still converts over 67%. His free throws per 100 is the lowest since his third season.
On the other hand, he’s still been trending upwards in so many other areas. Going through everything that has been going well for George has me wondering how much of any potential drop-offs in some areas will even matter.
He had his most impactful offensive season per EPM since he was top five in MVP in 2019. This season was second second-highest in his career.
George is one of the best shooters on the planet, especially when you consider him doing it at that size and what else he brings. He’s a career 38% shooter on 10 3s per 100. In these five years, he’s shooting 40% on 11. His catch-and-shoot numbers are insane — since 2017, he’s had one season below 40% and that was at 38%. His frequency is also elite with 27% of his shots being off the catch. He’s also never dipped below 20%.
Here are his ranks on spots ups(starting this year)
93rd percentile → 83rd → 93rd → 96th → 81st → 95th → 92nd → 84th → 84th
There’s also him off-screen:
68th → 40th → 72nd → 44th → 88th → 71st → 67th → 67th
He’s truly an elite, elite shooter.
All of this will make the fit so much easier alongside Maxey and Embiid. Out of all the players who played at least 100 minutes with Embiid, only Maxey attempted over 10 3s and he shot 37%.
There’s so much flexibility and variety that George provides. You can have him be solely a spacer in the corners where he’s casually a 44.3% shooter with almost a fifth of his shots there in his career. Oh, he’s also shooting 52%(!) from the corners in the last five seasons.
You can be involved as a screener for either Maxey or Embiid. You can have him be one pass away on any actions with Embiid in the post or Maxey in the PNR.
This 76ers team was already elite with both Embiid and Maxey on offensively with a 124.6 ORTG and that included Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, and Batum getting most of the minutes. Now, you’re replacing one of those players with George, who’s a significant upgrade offensively.
When it comes to fitting alongside them, there’s zero doubt that they’re going to be dominant.
What’s more intriguing to me is how it will work when it’s George doing more because that will certainly be the case too. That’s the bonus of having him over someone like Harris. He’s clearly capable of playing the off-ball role, shooting off the catch, and spacing.
But he’s also more capable of being the ball handler and doing the damage himself. The Clippers with George on and no Harden, were +8.4 with a 120.1 ORTG. George in those minutes scored 28 points per 75 possessions on 61% eFG & 65% TS with a 28% usage. When you take Leonard off too, that increased to 31 points on the same efficiency but with a 32% usage.
Here are his PNR stats over the years:
1.09(59.9% eFG) → 0.97(53.3%) → 0.83(45.7%) → 0.97(54.4%) → 0.97(53.2%)
He had a dominant season in the PNR. But one thing that has stood out is the frequency:
18.6% → 29.6% → 35.8% → 33.3% → 32.9%
This was the first season in a while that he dipped below 20%. I wonder what direction that will go here.
Another bonus he brings is the potential passing. That was one of the areas that has dropped this year, similar to his PNR, but it’s also something that he has shown in the past that he’s capable of doing.
Here are some playmaking stats compared to on-ball players, per BBall-Index:
It’s not the best, particularly in these two seasons, but it’s not bad either. That’s enough for what they’d need in lower volume. Compare that to Harris:
1
That’s a significant upgrade.
The 76ers in these two years with no Embiid or Harden on, were -1.0 in 3686 minutes with a 114.8 offense. This year, without Embiid but with Maxey on, they were +0.4 with a 117.6 offense. George is going to help a lot there. Maxey was tasked to create for himself a lot where 29% of his 2s were assisted and 49% of his 3s. Compare that to 48% and 78% with Embiid. That’s where George can have his impact as another reliable ball handler.
Defensively, he’s a 6’8 big wing that can be used in various ways. He gives you that size and versatility without having to take away anything from the offensive end. He’s one of the 13 players to have a +2 offensive EPM and +1 defensive EPM.
Overall, this is as good of a fit on all counts as you can get. Looking at all of this, I’ve talked myself into this core potentially being the best in basketball when healthy. So, this whole question to me is easily answered and I can’t wait to see it.
I want to see a full season of Embiid. He won MVP in 2023(which I thought should’ve gone to Nikola Jokic) but it was this year that it felt like it was his absolute best where he’d deserve the award.
This was only a 39-game sample but the jump was ridiculous:
He was above everyone else. I don’t think there was anyone who had the same kind of impact he had on both ends of the floor. With him on, the 76ers’ offense and defense would rank second. Without him, that would drop to 16th and 17th.
It’s the way he was so impactful on both ends of the floor that stood out to me. He defended the most shots within 6ft with 9.0. Opponents also shot 53.6%, which is 10.5% worse than expected.
Are we going to see a repeat of that? Is there a world in which he comes in even better? I don’t even know what that world would look like. But if what we saw from Embiid in those 39 games is what we’ll see now, it’s hard to argue against the 76ers not being a top-three or at least a top-five team in the league.
But we already know Embiid is great. He’s an MVP. We also know what George is and it’s just a matter of fit and how he’s going to be used.
The biggest x-factor is how much better can Maxey be. He’s already taken a jump to being an All-Star. He was tasked with more responsibility with Harden not here. That also increased with Embiid missing time too. And yet, he still averaged 25.5 points per 75 on 57.3% TS. The efficiency did drop but that was to be expected.
On the other hand, his assist percentage also increased from 16.9% to 26.7%. That was one of the main areas I thought he had to address last year. His playmaking stats were what held him back from me.
Here are his playmaking stats compared to on-ball players, per BBall-Index:
That’s still an issue. The volume is up with more ball handling and being placed in that situation. But everything else is around the same. This is still not an area of strength that he can rely on. So, again that will be the question for Maxey. Can he improve as a passer significantly?
On top of that, I wonder if his shot profile also changes. He did up his 3-point volume, but that’s only because he’s getting more shots. His 3pt rate remained the same at 40%. I need more. I need to see over 50%. He’s too good of a shooter to be not taking more. That could open up a lot more for him.
His shot profile already has changed and some of it was because of no Harden, but now I’m curious to see how it will change again with George. Here is his pull up 2s vs 3s frequency:
2024: 17.3%(37.2% FG) vs 24.4%(32.8%)
2023: 19.8%(44.2%) vs 17.0%(38.7%)
2022: 24.8%(40.1%) vs 14.5%(40.3%)
2021: 29.8%(49.2%) vs 8.2%(25.7%)
This is exactly what should happen. He has moved for a more pull-up 3-oriented game than going for those 2s. I hope to see a bounce back with the efficiency, though. This isn’t the issue.
It’s the off the catch 3pt shooting, which correlates with being more on-ball:
15.2%(32.3%) → 16.5%(45.1%) → 23.1%(45.5%) → 15.3%(44.4%)
He’s been at least a 44% shooter off the catch in the last three years. But his frequency dropped to 15%. I’d like to see that number reach 20% again and with George that could happen.
If he can make that jump to All-NBA caliber, I don’t see anything wrong with any of these three players. Because they all play different roles and are different sizes, build, and have different tools, they fit perfectly.
This could be the biggest x-factor for them.
What about the rest of the team?
I like it a lot outside of one position. I feel comfortable with guards and ball-handling duties being shared with Maxey, Lowry, Jackson, Gordon, and even Martin. There are some drives, some passing, and some shooting. Though, I wonder if that’s enough when it comes to defensively. On that note, they do have Kelly Oubre Jr back who can help in that department.
There’s also what kind of rookie season McCain is going to have.
The concern is with some of the frontcourt defense. Is that falling all on George? Who’s there to be the helper? Who’s guarding up? Who’s guarding some of the bigger wings? Right now, that feels entirely George’s role. This is where the loss of Batum will hurt.
But even with that, I see this team as one of the best in the Embiid era. They have everything they need to have a successful season and be a legitimate contender in the league. The only question that will determine this is health.
Predictions
50-57 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 6th seed with health not being great
Ceiling(best case scenario): Top team in the East and at least a conference finals appearance
I like this team. The George signing was the best move they could’ve realistically made and they pulled it off. That was the move that could’ve helped them the most.
What he gives them is exactly what they need and what can push them further.
There are no fit issues for me. There are no question marks when it comes to basketball in the way there may have been with someone like Harden. Not only that, George still is one of the elite players in the league. It’s not just fit that matters here, but it’s the upper-tier talent with fit.
They made the most of it by bringing in new blood with Gordon, Drummond, and Martin. They brought back players that were key last year. That’s continuity and new faces that can add something different.
There are a few concerns and question marks when it comes to those players. Both Lowry and Gordon are aging and may not be as effective. Martin has shown a decline with the Miami Heat already.
But at the same time, this team was already elite when guys were healthy and playing. They were literally a 79% win team with Embiid on the court. They got better. The only reason we didn’t see them hit their full potential was because of health and not ability.
Morey has done a hell of a job at helping the best players by getting both top-end talent and rounding out the team. They have set themselves up to be a legit contender as good as anyone else.
All of it will again depend on Embiid(and George) staying healthy, which has clearly not been an easy thing to do. That alone will mean they’ll compete. You’re going to compete with a top 5 player in the world.
I will be curious to see what kind of leap Maxey can take. That can make them go from a contender to a clear favorite easily.
Overall, this was as good of an off-season as they could’ve planned for. Everything is there or ready to fall into pieces for them to make a deep run and compete for a championship.